FallsLake Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's interesting we aren't torching with phase 5, +AO, and +NAO. I know EPO is dominating but can't imagine what would happen with phase 8/1/2, -AO, +PNA... if it ever comes. If memory is right the EPO saved us last year as well. I remember looking at the continuous bad look of the indices and eventually just ignoring them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I like this look in the long range....we may be turning a corner if this look keeps up. Verbatim everything is a bit east, but I love the western ridge, the higher heights over the pole/greenland and a split flow. At least it's not 384! Seems to agree with ensembles too, just not as intense of course. See if it holds for a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Dry and cold will be a nice change from overcast and drizzle. I'll take it even if it is short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Thanks. For some reason I thought that first big cold push came more towards the middle of Jan. It was 3 big cold snaps, one in early Jan with our first high in the 20's lows in the 0's and the second and third in the last 10 days of the month where we did it again. You wouldn't know it but nearly the middle third of the month was mostly at or above average... at least IMBY. We had a soild movement of cold into the area with some major arctic fronts sweeping through (-EPO) but nothing to hold it in for an extended period of time (+AO/NAO) Got our big cold in jan, then our big snow in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The GFS will no attempt to rival what the DOC was showing from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm getting the arctic attack thread together as we speak...just waiting on the 12z GFS to get further along so I can impliment some of those maps into the original post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 1050mb high over the midwest by 6z THUR. IT will be cold, but not as cold as the EURO, I don't think. The GFS is likely a bit too far east with the upper energy, Jumping to far out ahead, so likely further west like EURO...either way...its gonna be COLD!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'm getting the arctic attack thread together as we speak...just waiting on the 12z GFS to get further along so I can impliment some of those maps into the original post... Wow, another red flag that this winter has sucked. Making threads on transient cold shots 6 days out.. It looks right now that it will get cold but wow, desperate for anything at this point I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Desperate times calls for desperate measures lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS is very cold for the SE, as we all know, not as cold as the EURO, about 8-10 degrees warmer. LOL Either way, we will meet somewhere in the middle and MANY of us won't get above FREEZING next THUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS is very cold for the SE, as we all know, not as cold as the EURO, about 8-10 degrees warmer. LOL Either way, we will meet somewhere in the middle and MANY of us won't get above FREEZING next THUR.Delta, what were the 2m temps like for SGA on the run last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow, another red flag that this winter has sucked. Making threads on transient cold shots 6 days out.. It looks right now that it will get cold but wow, desperate for anything at this point I see.Transient single digits is worthy of a thread ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Transient single digits is worthy of a thread ! I'll take a day that doesn't make it above freezing...KATL usually gets 1-2 of those per season so it's about right on schedule if it verifies. I wouldn't bank on single digits for the SE forum though... The cold could have trouble getting across the apps for NC and could moderate above 10 before it makes it down into GA. Plenty of time for this to trend a little in either direction.... I think I like the blend take that Delta seems to be taking.... Last season's cold shot got me down under 4 degrees. I think it would be a stretch at the current time to think that we will rival that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS is very cold for the SE, as we all know, not as cold as the EURO, about 8-10 degrees warmer. LOL Either way, we will meet somewhere in the middle and MANY of us won't get above FREEZING next THUR. The GFS had me at 5 degrees next Thursday morning so if that is 8-10 degrees too warm then I think I might make a run at 0 or below..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The arctic attack thread is now open.. This thread can now be focused for any possible winter precip events that may come up... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45283-january-2015-arctic-attack-thread/?p=3225588 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Delta, what were the 2m temps like for SGA on the run last night? If Im not mistaken it was like 15-20 degree range in SGA. EURO last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 GFS PARA building in one hell of a wedge out ahead of the moisture past 200 hours. Probably won't amount to much but man that is one stout looking wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 12z GFS is just cold pretty much throughout the run. Gets seasonal then cold again. Very nice. In general, I'll be very happy if we can pull the trigger on winter mid January and stay active with Blocking until March 1. Until this last few runs that didn't look possible. It's on the table now IMO. Like to get more consecutive runs in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Lets stay on topic. It gets even colder when you can't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I love cold and snow man.... I am disappointed in "my" weeklies though. I view them as solid as a long range model can be and yes they let me down in that regard. I do probably ride the weeklies a bit hard but everyone has their favorites... Those are mine Although I'm not sure the weeklies ever had the SE ridge like some of the other models were showing. I definitely like the notion that the Globals seem to have dropped the idea of the SE ridge completely for the time being.... Yes the weeklies had the SE ridge too on 12/22, 12/25, and 12/29 and like I've mentioned you should probably treat it like the Euro ENS because it's just an extended version of that and they've been terrible recently, so I wouldn't trust the weeklies either but that's just me. Some treat it like crystal ball looking into the future, I think most don't treat it for what it is, a model. It looks not to verify a lot this winter IMO, if it keeps up this warm bias. Control runs were even worse than the mean...death ridge on some, but was easy to see even in the weeklies with the location of the cold and the ridging out west, the cold had to come south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Those things have done well....I'm confused why he's so pessimistic on things if we go into the COD, its a hell of a lot better than 4-5-6...yes its not as good as 7-8-1 but it does not mean we're going to torch Snowgoose, Agreed 100%. According to my analysis of ATL daily JAN temp.'s since 1975, having an amplitude of under 1 (COD) in a particular phase is consistently colder than being outside of the COD on average in that particular phase. So, for example, being in the COD form phase 5, the warmest by a good margin, is not nearly as warm as being outside the COD in phase 5. Phase 5 outside the COD has averaged over a whopping ~6 F above normal (warmest by far) whereas phase 5 within the COD has averaged only about 1 F above normal. I'll post more details about my MJO phase findings as soon as I get the time. Teaser: being in the COD in phase 8 is the coldest by a pretty good margin...nearly 6 below normal! Being in phase 8 outside the COD has been only ~0.5 F colder than normal. Fascinating stuff imo! I never would have guessed this without seeing the actual numbers for myself. And the statistical credibility is quite good due to nice sample sizes. Total sample has a whopping 1,240 days! **Edited** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 FWIW, maybe not much, but Joe D'Aleo seems to think the Davis Straits and Greenland blocking will join the party in the coming weeks, as a result of the stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Next weekend may bear watching. Euro is ejecting that energy out sooner with a 1040 high sliding down and enough confluence in the NE to help maybe get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I like what the Euro is depicting for NC right after the cold spell. If that confluence in the NE can hang around a little longer we could be in business. Weak impulses coming out of the SW with enough cold air in place can get this party started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I like what the Euro is depicting for NC right after the cold spell. If that confluence in the NE can hang around a little longer we could be in business. Weak impulses coming out of the SW with enough cold air in place can get this party started. I agree. I am seeing it too. It at least holds potential and gives us something other than bone chilling cold to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Next weekend may bear watching. Euro is ejecting that energy out sooner with a 1040 high sliding down and enough confluence in the NE to help maybe get something. I agree!! I just can't see the CAD areas, maybe not all of the area, getting out of here w/o an ICE event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 WOW 1052mb high over Western MA by hour 216. I know its WAAAAY out there, but that is a super wedge. been a really long time since seeing one of those. QPF inbound from the southern and central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Problem would be we are quickly loosing the confluence and the high. Too many specifics, but nice to see the potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Problem would be we are quickly loosing the confluence and the high. Too many specifics, but nice to see the potential Yea I have a feeling that confluence sticks around longer. CMC also had a monster wedge showing up. The problem before was there was just nothing in the flow and what was there just went in the meat grinder. It'll be interesting to see if Euro lets some energy sneak in as we get closer. Just something to keep an eye on for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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