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January 2015 obs/disco/short range


AlaskaETC

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Nothing big, but a good whitening would be nice. All of the models I've seen have trended in a good way. Doesn't mean they are right, but....

Has the Euro come in yet? What does it show? Was that the numbers Bob posted above? And how does it compare to 0z?

Yes, I posted euro #'s. Notable shift from last night. .10 line was n md / wv panhandle @ 0z

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Thanks, Bob.

Just a little snow lying around would be nice for the cold temps.

This season stopped bothering me before xmas. I conceded to a ho hum season that may or may not turn around. I think we'll get some storms but an extended period of favorable stuff is looking less likely as time goes on. As leesburg said last month, the personality of this winter has shown its hand.

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This season stopped bothering me before xmas. I conceded to a ho hum season that may or may not turn around. I think we'll get some storms but an extended period of favorable stuff is looking less likely as time goes on. As leesburg said last month, the personality of this winter has shown its hand.

Perhaps, but in ten days, the whole perspective could change. Or it could look worse. I guess the point is that a good winter can still be had. Heck, with this much time left, it doesn't take a miracle, just a little luck.

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Hey, a dusting along with deep cold next week blows the December of Discontent out of the water. Feels like 3rd and 1. All we need to do is fall forward to produce something.

Also, I hope all those worshiping at the euro altar (thanks WinterWxLuvr!) noticed Coastal's comment--op euro hasn't been good at all in the med term...and I don't think the ens have been all that great either recently.

Yeah, if the ensembles had been reliable we would be about a week into a good, cold, snowy period right now.

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Perhaps, but in ten days, the whole perspective could change. Or it could look worse. I guess the point is that a good winter can still be had. Heck, with this much time left, it doesn't take a miracle, just a little luck.

I'm mostly referring to having a favorable ao/nao. I dug around a little. If the AO goes +4 this month we're in some bad company with other years that did it in January. All analogs on CPC have been crappy winters for weeks on end now. Even years that flipped negative after being + in Dec-Jan don't paint the best picture. Your area stands a much better chance without blocking so if I lived out there I would be more optimistic.

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I'm mostly referring to having a favorable ao/nao. I dug around a little. If the AO goes +4 this month we're in some bad company with other years that did it in January. All analogs on CPC have been crappy winters for weeks on end now. Even years that flipped negative after being + in Dec-Jan don't paint the best picture. Your area stands a much better chance without blocking so if I lived out there I would be more optimistic.

never having looked at the analog years, the writing is on the wall for this winter

it's fluke time or nothing......but not yet, I'll give it to the 15th  :weenie:

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Euro and GFS has us between 19 and 21 degrees Tuesday at sunrise with snow falling. Cold snow is the best.

I like clippers. They often stick immediately and stay all snow.

 

This region has a problem with always chasing something out of reach.. a few light snowfalls intermixed with junk and one/two mod or more is very often how we get to respectable numbers around here at least. 

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Was it '11-'12 when we had a couple cold shots with a few clippers dusting us here and there? Pretty cold and wintry period among a toasty winter.

Might have been 12-13.. tho I think we had clippers in both. In 12-13 I think we had two back to back over two nights or so.  Both Jans were pretty warm though despite any brief cold.

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Might have been 12-13.. tho I think we had clippers in both. In 12-13 I think we had two back to back over two nights or so. Both Jans were pretty warm though despite any brief cold.

Hmmm. Now I'm trying to remember based on whether my daughter was born yet or not. I'm pretty sure she wasn't, so that would have put it in early '12. I distinctly remember walking to a new bar around Clarendon and it was cold and really windy with nice dendrites whipping around. I don't even think we got an inch out of it, but it was really wintry. I'd have to go through my detailed record-keeping (:lol:) to know for sure.

Either way, even our most tropical of winters can produce a stray period of real winter. Best to get it out of the way now. ;)

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Hmmm. Now I'm trying to remember based on whether my daughter was born yet or not. I'm pretty sure she wasn't, so that would have put it in early '12. I distinctly remember walking to a new bar around Clarendon and it was cold and really windy with nice dendrites whipping around. I don't even think we got an inch out of it, but it was really wintry. I'd have to go through my detailed record-keeping ( :lol:) to know for sure.

Either way, even our most tropical of winters can produce a stray period of real winter. Best to get it out of the way now. ;)

It could be. I think Jan 12 had a bigger event but 13 had a longer cold snap with the two clippers back to back. Otherwise both were 4+ above normal so not much cold. :P

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around here, not very often

memorable ones were in early Jan, 03 (1/6?) and 12/5/07

best one I can recall that blew up (that this has absolutely no chance of doing) was in early 3/84

Big clippers.. 

 

~.5-"1 for me and 1-3" for someone better than me.. pretty common. Probably 1-3 a winter?

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around here, not very often

memorable ones were in early Jan, 03 (1/6?) and 12/5/07

best one I can recall that blew up (that this has absolutely no chance of doing) was in early 3/84

1/03 was an interesting case where the surface low tracked north of us. The heavy snow burst happened well ahead of the low passage:

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/05-Jan-03-SurfaceMaps.html

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