mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 officially, GFS gives BWI .11" DCA-.07" IAD-.09" MTN-.12" those numbers are all thru 1PM Tuesday possibly a little after that, but I don't think much, if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 if memory serves, there is a sweet spot where you want to be for max dendrite growth and once you get above or below it, it reverts back closer to the 10:1 so, I believe the answer is "yes", higher ratios with colder temps, but we (BWI/DCA) rarely do that well with higher ratios and it is often hit or miss last year, there were a few systems at the end of FEB that DCA/IAD did quite well with, but that was luck Oh... I remember those. They were terrible up this way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Para is also south. RGEM looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Just a couple of comments. Clipper systems usually disappoint unless the surface low tracks to the south and usualloy you need the vort also to your south. The vort looks like it tracks to the north of us. That doesn't preclude snow especially if you have terrain in your favor but east of the mountains, we usually don't do well. For high ratios you want the maximum vertical motion to be located near -15 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 DCA-.07" IAD-.09" MTN-.12" those numbers are all thru 1PM Tuesday possibly a little after that, but I don't think much, if at all Phineas gets another .01" after 1PM, nothing for the rest of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Headed to Rochester, MN today. As the clipper trends towards giving mby snow I see a drop in snow up this way. Probably 2-3" though the vort track is nice and temps are bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Just a couple of comments. Clipper systems usually disappoint unless the surface low tracks to the south and usualloy you need the vort also to your south. The vort looks like it tracks to the north of us. That doesn't preclude snow especially if you have terrain in your favor but east of the mountains, we usually don't do well. For high ratios you want the maximum vertical motion to be located near -15 C. Thanks, Wes. I'm just hoping for a little snow that will actually stick around for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 when people say cold/dry, warm/wet, this winter really has been pretty close to that so far. i prefer the warm weather (not hot, but i'd rather have 50s in the winter), but if it's going to be cold, i'd like to see some snow. looks like we're trading today's weather (50s outside right now) for a week of cold and a weak clipper. hopefully, we get a significant storm to track at some point in the next few weeks. we're entering our wheelhouse now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Torch arriving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 We got more rain here than I thought. 0.94" through noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Torch arriving! 61 in Elkins, WV near 3,000'....wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 48 and still fooooggggyyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 You guys really know how to do wedges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I might open Windows later. Hot outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Just a couple of comments. Clipper systems usually disappoint unless the surface low tracks to the south and usualloy you need the vort also to your south. The vort looks like it tracks to the north of us. That doesn't preclude snow especially if you have terrain in your favor but east of the mountains, we usually don't do well. For high ratios you want the maximum vertical motion to be located near -15 C. Even though the overall vort max looks weaker on the hi res gfs, I like how the northern fringe is being cut off more than the southern boundary. Wouldn't that scenario favor this area slightly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Windows open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Just a couple of comments. Clipper systems usually disappoint unless the surface low tracks to the south and usualloy you need the vort also to your south. The vort looks like it tracks to the north of us. That doesn't preclude snow especially if you have terrain in your favor but east of the mountains, we usually don't do well. For high ratios you want the maximum vertical motion to be located near -15 C. 12/5/2007 was the last good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 51 at Dolly Sods....poor ski slopes http://www.fsvisimages.com/fstemplate.aspx?site=doso1 but they'll be crushed in the coming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 61 in Elkins, WV near 3,000'....wow Elkins itself is around 1900-2000 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 wooo-whoooo from NE forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45292-jan-6-7-potential-clipper/?p=3230163 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Elkins itself is around 1900-2000 ft what, I have to look at maps before I post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 wooo-whoooo from NE forum http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45292-jan-6-7-potential-clipper/?p=3230163 .18 wv panhandle, .16 winchester, .10 bwi. DCA is around .07. N MD has .13+/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 what, I have to look at maps before I post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 .18 wv panhandle, .16 winchester, .10 bwi. DCA is around .07. N MD has .13+/- geez....model consensus at 48 hrs? unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 It's gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 geez....model consensus at 48 hrs? unbelievable I would go lower than all guidance in our areas. Things could tend better qpf wise but whatever the final #'s look like with short range stuff tomorrow night, I think the under is a good call. Mountains are going to do their dirty work + it's a pretty flat vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 It's gonna snow And stick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 And stick!0.5" would be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I would go lower than all guidance in our areas. Things could tend better qpf wise but whatever the final #'s look like with short range stuff tomorrow night, I think the under is a good call. Mountains are going to do their dirty work + it's a pretty flat vort. If I get less than an inch from the clipper, this winter sucks. Oh, wait, it already does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0.5" would be huge We've been waiting for 37 days of met winter for this. Looks like it will be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.