PhineasC Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Overcast and breezy, 79/71. Made it down to 74 last night. Should dip down to 73 tonight. Oh yeah. I'm in Miami.Take a couple of degrees off to get the temperature at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We've had enough days like this for a few winters now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Really awful driving on 695 at the moment. Foggy with mist and low visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We've had enough days like this for a few winters nowI don't usually mind this type of weather, but I'm getting sick of it too.Big time fog out there right now and 38 degrees. Good night for a warm fire in the woodstove. Looking forward to some nose bleeding dry and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Very foggy.....so much so that I didn't see the deer that were standing near the deck when I threw the christmas tree into the backyard. To say that they were startled would be an understatement. Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Overcast and breezy, 79/71. Made it down to 74 last night. Should dip down to 73 tonight. Oh yeah. I'm in Miami. I'm in South Beach attm..dews are lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Our clipper "threat" is gone on the NAM/GFS/4km NAM GFS drops in a 1061 H Wed morning into ND/MT... haven't seen 1060+ H in quite some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 High of 54 in Phoenix today, low 34. Felt like a typical DC midwinter torch day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 00z GFS says it will be in the upper teens at 00z THUR for KIAD and close to 10 above by 03z (10pm Wed night) Looks like single digit lows BR and west... 10-15 degree lows as you get to I-95 corridor... wouldn't be suprised to see some lows around 0 in the usual cold spots in LWX CWA 00z GFS has DCA in the upper teens at 1pm THUR... and makes it into the low 20s for highs... lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 00z GFS brought the clipper a bit more south. Looks like .5" of snow north of Baltimore. 00z Para is even better and gets an inch north of Baltimore. DC gets around .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Old GFS with over 0.10" liquid here on Tuesday. With cold temps and ratios, a nice 1-2" cover for the arctic chill to follow. I would take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Euro looks like the GFS for Tuesday for my area. A general 1-3" snowfall for western Md. and the northern part of the WV panhandle. Laurel Highlands of PA look like the jackpot. 2-4, 3-5" storm with temps in the upper teens there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 39 and still under heavy fog and mist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Temp up to 48. In a lull rain wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 43 in a lull winter wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 FWIW, last two runs of the NAM have joined the other models in showing accumulating snow over the northern part of the area on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 FWIW, last two runs of the NAM have joined the other models in showing accumulating snow over the northern part of the area on Tuesday morning. gives BWI 08", Science Center in Baltimore .10" and mtn .12" IF it was right, an inch+ for the Baltimore metro area would fall....except, the NAM is always fail sooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 gives BWI 08", Science Center in Baltimore .10" and mtn .12" IF it was right, an inch+ for the Baltimore metro area would fall....except, the NAM is always fail sooooo The GFS is similar. I don't think we can discount a bit of light snow, even though it's rare for clippers to trend south. Yoda did declare this dead last night, even while the models trended better....so we have to factor that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 South side of clipper precip shields are prone to fail. And this one is pretty dry to begin with. Terrain area may get an inch or so but unlikely anywhere near the cities imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 4km NAM (via Tropicalticbits) shows about 1 inch for DC, 2 inches for Baltimore, and 3-5 for Northern MD. (Although 6z was actually a tad higher in Northern MD so I don't know if I can trust it). SREF mean has 0.1" QPF through Northern MD, 0.01" line La Plata then straight E/ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Although I'm out of town, I'm rooting for this clipper... we are all snow starved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 South side of clipper precip shields are prone to fail. And this one is pretty dry to begin with. Terrain area may get an inch or so but unlikely anywhere near the cities imo. well, I said "IF it was right", and suggested the NAM always fails, so I'm with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 South side of clipper precip shields are prone to fail. And this one is pretty dry to begin with. Terrain area may get an inch or so but unlikely anywhere near the cities imo. And notoriously prone to shifting north at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Based on current guidance, I wouldn't be surprised if Baltimore-north got an inch. But like others have said, it's got bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I recall JB always saying in these kinds of systems to watch the -10C 850 as they normally follow that track it seems the models have been pushing that south so there "may" be some reason for hope with the trend as the -10C 850 line has been sinking south with each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I recall JB always saying in these kinds of systems to watch the -10C 850 as they normally follow that track it seems the models have been pushing that south so there "may" be some reason for hope with the trend as the -10C 850 line has been sinking south with each run Won't the cold temps aloft result in a higher liquid-to-snow ratio? Maybe 12:1 or 15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Won't the cold temps aloft result in a higher liquid-to-snow ratio? Maybe 12:1 or 15:1? if memory serves, there is a sweet spot where you want to be for max dendrite growth and once you get above or below it, it reverts back closer to the 10:1 so, I believe the answer is "yes", higher ratios with colder temps, but we (BWI/DCA) rarely do that well with higher ratios and it is often hit or miss last year, there were a few systems at the end of FEB that DCA/IAD did quite well with, but that was luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS came a bit more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150104+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 officially, GFS gives BWI .11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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