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January 2015 obs/disco/short range


AlaskaETC

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How far south?

 

There hasn't been a run where the freezing line gets below DC since the 00Z run on Saturday for the GFS, and that had the low pass directly overhead, but it showed snow for us while the low was in the middle of Ohio. 

 

Since then the models have shown a slow progression where the low tracks just north of the Michigan-Ohio border, but instead of sinking down to Virginia, the low ends up in northern NY. 

 

Every run is marginal on temps, but I can't really see anything changing at this point. Each run from Saturday through today have been very consistent with the 2m temps just above freezing. Anything can happen, though. Still 60ish hours to precipitation. 

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Are we done with clippers? The one tomorrow would look to give some wintry weather, albeit not much. Has NAM/GFS support for a dusting to an inch for much of the area, RGEM gives most a dusting but it more north. 

Have you checked soundings?  Last night (for the 18z runs yesterday) they looked pretty lousy.  Rain or white rain.  

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12z NAM sounding at 0z Friday is probably snow/sleet mix outside the cities.  12z GFS soundings are a fair bit warmer, but also drier, so the temp never wetbulbs down below zero (although the WBZ is below freezing).  I wouldn't expect much.  Maybe the Clarksburg-Westminster-Mt Parkton crowd can add a 0.3" to their totals.  

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12z NAM sounding at 0z Friday is probably snow/sleet mix outside the cities.  12z GFS soundings are a fair bit warmer, but also drier, so the temp never wetbulbs down below zero (although the WBZ is below freezing).  I wouldn't expect much.  Maybe the Clarksburg-Westminster-Mt Parkton crowd can add a 0.3" to their totals.  

 

12z NAM is a whopping .2 of snow for Westminster. 

 

only need .5 to make it to 10"  :axe:

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