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January 2015 obs/disco/short range


AlaskaETC

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06z Atari gfs gives Westminster .4 ice Monday before the change to rain sometime after 15z

 

I think our areas in N.MD and southern PA could be in for a rude awakening on Monday morning. When you are near or below freezing for this long, that ground will still be cold even with temperatures near 30-32. Not saying it'll be anything major, but it might cause some tricky travel for the first half of Monday. Ice is nothing to play with. I think our DC brethren will have nothing to worry about, but the usual spots that hang on to CAD well could be dicey.

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I think our areas in N.MD and southern PA could be in for a rude awakening on Monday morning. When you are near or below freezing for this long, that ground will still be cold even with temperatures near 30-32. Not saying it'll be anything major, but it might cause some tricky travel for the first half of Monday. Ice is nothing to play with. I think our DC brethren will have nothing to worry about, but the usual spots that hang on to CAD well could be dicey.

Exactly why I planned ahead and brought home a laptop from work. That way I don't have to drive in if its dicey in the morning.

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Exactly why I planned ahead and brought home a laptop from work. That way I don't have to drive in if its dicey in the morning.

 

Great call on your part. I still think temperatures will nose above freezing at some point on Monday, but the question is when? Models this far out have underestimated the effectiveness of the CAD setup and have busted a few degrees colder at the surface prior to the incoming precipitation. Sunday night will be something to watch with the surface temperatures. Days like today 24-36 hours ahead of anything don't help the situation.

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Great call on your part. I still think temperatures will nose above freezing at some point on Monday, but the question is when? Models this far out have underestimated the effectiveness of the CAD setup and have busted a few degrees colder at the surface prior to the incoming precipitation. Sunday night will be something to watch with the surface temperatures. Days like today 24-36 hours ahead of anything don't help the situation.

Only thing I can hope for is to not lose power like last Febs ice. But I don't think this time is supposed to be as bad, like you said though really hard to say even two days in advance.

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I get full sun exposure for almost the entire day except for my immediate backyard. My house faces south, located in a small valley between two ridges.

Ahh, I'm orientated east/west so the sun isn't as deadly to the snowpack.

Here's hoping for more this week!

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