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January 2015 obs/disco/short range


AlaskaETC

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Verbatim it looks like it gets pretty close to the metro areas, if only for a short period, right?

Those graphics are hard to read...but it is definitely wetter and faster to arrive. Also showing low dew points right up to the precip start....upper teens for my area. I can see us falling below freezing quickly and with that high sitting up there it might take a while to get the temps back above freezing.

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Those maps are a little misleading, 12z GFS at 7:00am tomorrow has the sfc 32 line just NW of the cities. IWM/Tropicaltidbits show a lot of that Sleet/ZR area as rain.

I guess the question is, which is correct?

one would think that the NCEP site would provide more accurate precip-type maps for "their" model, but then I guess we'll know whether that's asking too much

 

EDIT: soundings may provide the real clue I suppose

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GFS 21 hr sounding imby

1022.    74.   -0.0   -5.7    82.1     2.7 1000.   254.    0.7   -8.0    88.6     5.2  975.   457.    0.4   -9.4    92.1     5.4  950.   665.   -0.5   -9.0    98.0     4.0  925.   878.   -1.3   -8.1   134.1     2.2  900.  1096.   -1.8   -7.1   197.5     2.7  850.  1551.   -1.1   -6.1   232.8     6.4  800.  2036.   -0.1   -3.6   249.5    10.4  750.  2553.   -0.1   -4.9   260.7    15.1  700.  3103.   -2.2   -7.8   268.2    19.0  650.  3690.   -4.5   -8.8   270.9    22.4  600.  4317.   -7.4   -9.5   267.1    25.2  550.  4990.  -10.7  -11.6   259.9    30.1  500.  5718.  -15.1  -15.5   259.8    35.1

24 hrs. after .04 falls

 1022.    74.    0.4   -3.7   108.6     3.5 1000.   257.   -0.0   -5.5   112.5     7.0  975.   459.   -0.7   -6.4   124.2     8.7  950.   667.   -1.7   -6.0   134.4     8.9  925.   878.   -2.2   -5.3   147.8     8.8  900.  1096.   -2.4   -4.8   163.2     8.6  850.  1551.   -0.3   -1.2   199.5    10.2  800.  2039.    1.3    0.8   228.0    12.5  750.  2558.   -0.0   -0.5   244.7    13.5  700.  3109.   -2.1   -2.6   250.0    16.9  650.  3697.   -4.0   -4.3   256.7    23.8  600.  4325.   -6.7   -8.5   259.9    30.8  550.  5001.   -9.9  -13.4   260.4    34.2  500.  5730.  -14.6  -16.7   262.3    34.4

definitely snow and sleet or sleet to start tomorrow morning based on the above

 

should be mainly rain with "some" sleet still possible around 10AM per sounding below

1022.    74.    1.7   -0.8   118.5     4.8 1000.   249.    0.8   -2.0   123.3     8.8  975.   453.   -0.3   -2.7   132.9    11.3  950.   660.   -1.1   -3.4   144.5    13.1  925.   872.   -1.6   -3.7   156.8    13.9  900.  1091.   -1.4   -2.5   171.8    14.3  850.  1549.    1.5    1.0   202.8    16.9  800.  2040.    2.7    2.1   226.3    20.5  750.  2563.    2.5    1.9   245.9    22.9  700.  3119.    0.0   -0.3   257.6    25.5  650.  3711.   -2.6   -4.2   263.6    27.5  600.  4343.   -5.4   -9.2   265.0    29.1  550.  5020.   -9.9  -13.6   266.5    30.4  500.  5748.  -15.0  -17.2   268.5    31.1
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This has the potential to cause some slippery conditions. The ground is cold and the timing of precip couldn't be better. With the soundings Mitch posted, the low dewpoints, and rapid increase in precip, I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of snow to start.

You are always so optimistic. Hope the best for you out there!

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