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January Obs Thread


Isopycnic

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It'll be interesting to see if we get the amounts being tossed around for later today/overnight, or if this is going to be yet another convection-robbing system.

 

Solak scores!!! --- from the afternoon AFD out of Raleigh.

QPF MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ROLLING ALONG FROM THE GULF TO FLORIDA... HAVING SOME NEGATIVE IMPACT ON QPF INLAND. JUST HOW MUCH THIS AFFECTS OUR STORM TOTALS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST HRRR AND THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT ABOUT 1/3 LESS QPF THAN THE EARLIER 1-2 INCH FORECAST. WE WILL TREND A BIT LOWER
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Cold rain at 32.5 now after a little snow to snow sleet mix earlier but I am little surprised at no sleet here currently so here is a question.  Is the cold between 925 and 875 MB not cold enough to refreeze the melted snow or was this a reality vs. model problem?  Surface temps are very close now to what the 18z NAM presents.  Some temps between 850 and 725 MB were as high as +6 though.  I tried to trim out some of the noise so hope formatting holds. 

NAM Model Run: 18Z JAN 23, 2015                                                                

Forecast Hours:    0hr    3hr    6hr    9hr   12hr   15hr   18hr   21hr   24hr   27hr   30hr

2m agl Tmp (F):   32.8   32.9   32.1   32.6   32.5   32.7   33.5   36.2   37.1   35.2   31.3

2m AGL Dewpt(F):  30.9   30.8   30.8   31.7   31.4   31.7   32.1   31.5   28.9   25.8   22.6

925mb Temp ©:   -2.9   -2.2   -2.0   -1.6   -0.8    0.0    0.8    0.6    0.7   -0.2   -1.5

925mb Dewpt©:   -2.9   -2.3   -2.1   -1.9   -1.3   -0.7   -0.2   -1.4   -3.4   -4.9   -6.2

900mb Temp ©:   -2.1   -1.9   -1.4   -2.3   -2.1   -0.8    0.2   -0.9   -1.4   -2.4   -2.6

900mb Dewpt©:   -2.1   -2.0   -1.5   -2.6   -2.4   -1.5   -0.7   -2.9   -4.3   -5.9   -7.6

875mb Temp ©:   -1.3    0.4   -0.1   -1.7   -2.7   -1.0   -0.5   -1.4   -3.4   -4.0   -3.1

875mb Dewpt©:   -1.7    0.1   -0.3   -1.9   -3.0   -1.5   -1.5   -4.1   -5.5   -8.6   -9.8

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Another soggy night. Picked up .77" overnight, 1.26" for the day. Radar estimate maps (NWS and GR) are way under reporting this event.

We are solidly in the deform band (or whatever you call the back edge of moderate precip on the backside of the low). If this had been snow....Ug.

Weatherbug has 35 and wintry mix as the current conditions. :arrowhead:

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