DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yeah it needs to wind the heck up and bomb pretty hard, like sub 995 or so off of VA/NC border hard, no slider or anything like that, it will be too warm...also an super close coastal hugger could prduce if it bombed just off of NVA, we would get some heavy backend snow. FWIW a handful of members from the 12z GFS with big dogs...this is my favorite. oh for god's sake this is a family forum. keep it PG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Liking the trend of more qpf showing up today on models. Not liking the warm trend. If this turns into a big rainstorm I just quit. I think tonight is the night where things are going to start coming into focus, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Happy anniversary. Jan 19, 1977. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 ALEET!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 This winter COULD end up being worse than 11-12 considering the high expectations this year. I've never experienced a winter where I didn't see at least a few snowflakes or sleet pellets. Even 11-12 I managed to get a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Like I said, it ain't over until it's over. Models keep changing. This storm is not dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You know, this reminds be of the Great Mexican Blizzard of 1745. Man, those were the days, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 You know, this reminds be of the Great Mexican Blizzard of 1745. Man, those were the days, huh? I lived in Europe at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Let's say you can spend $100 for a lottery ticket that will net you an infinite sum of money should you win. The expected value of such a bet is an infinity sum of dollars. Thus, the expected value of playing is greater than not playing - E(not playing) = $100. However, a normal risk averse person would not take this bet because our utility functions of wealth tend to look something like the below (square root function). It's also why we buy insurance, and do other things to avoid risk. I think that's called the St. Petersburg Paradox. Yes, but that lottery ticket does not exist. All such lotteries that I have previously seen only offer a finite sum of money should I win. And, then, there are all those taxes I would have to pay on the winnings too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 fyi, now may be a good time to sign up for the wxbell models 7 day trial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 How much for GSP, me and shetley want to know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 How much for GSP, me and shetley want to know! How much rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 GSP: 12" Jonesvile: Dry and Hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Be positive, five day away anything can happen. This storm will trend colder for Marietta. Winter delayed but not denied!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Like I said, it ain't over until it's over. Models keep changing. This storm is not dead yet. Preach it Brick, this isn't over. It will trend much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes, but that lottery ticket does not exist. All such lotteries that I have previously seen only offer a finite sum of money should I win. And, then, there are all those taxes I would have to pay on the winnings too. Yes, indeed. The fact is that in the real lottery, the expected value of playing is less than the expected value of not playing, so even for a risk-neutral person it makes no logical sense to play. How much for GSP, me and shetley want to know! 0.01" of rain. Epic Jshetley dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Yes, indeed. The fact is that in the real lottery, the expected value of playing is less than the expected value of not playing, so even for a risk-neutral person it makes no logical sense to play. 0.01" of rain. Epic Jshetley dry slot. Me and James will hit the bullseye, a band of heavy snow along the I-85 corridor, the likes of which have never been seen before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Is it too early to talk about an epic deformation band setting up on the 85 corridor in the upstate? Preferably centered 1 mile south of 85 in eastern Spartanburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 84 pages of cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 How much rain? Larry, any chance the GA mountains do well with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Larry, any chance the GA mountains do well with this? GAStorm, Yes, on both ends...way better chance than ATL-AHN corridor as it stands now especially far north. Regarding the front-end, the 850 0C line has been trending northward. If that stays below the NC/TN line through the heart of the storm, then those mountains near it and above it would likely get sig. snow. So, those close to the northern border would have the best shot as of now though even they could be largely shut-out if the further north trend of the 0C line keeps up. They would need the low to track no further north than over SE Ga for them to be able to do really well with higher elevations doing best imo. On the backside, those mountains that do well with NW upslope flow would have the best chance to do well in this case imo...again likely better than ATL-AHN corridor, where a lot of downslope related drying typically takes place in these backside/NW wind situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 Thanks Larry. If the snow doesn't come here I will definitely be taking a road trip to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's looking somewhat like the Dec 2009 system right now. That would be nice if only it tracks 75 or so miles farther south than that storm. That would make lots of us very happy I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's almost time for the 18z navgem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's looking somewhat like the Dec 2009 system right now. That would be nice if only it tracks 75 or so miles farther south than that storm. That would make lots of us very happy I think. If that's the case then I may be making a short drive up the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 It's almost time for the 18z navgem! CNN is reporting a major straw shortage in the SE US. All current stock has already been grasped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 CNN is reporting a major straw shortage in the SE US. All current stock has already been grasped.good thing I held on to mine, should be a great return 9n investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 If that's the case then I may be making a short drive up the mountains. Ah yes, the biggest snow IMBY since January 96. I wasn't there to witness it sadly but that was a mountain and immediate foothills special, it also made the turn up the coast and delivered a major snowstorm for the I-95 corridor. The new NAM at 84 hours (I know what your thinking) seems to be trying to show a band of frontogentical forcing stretching into WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 So did DT sound the alarm today? Anyone who has lived in NC long knows we often see warm sunny days like today followed by snow in the same week during this time in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 So did DT sound the alarm today? Anyone who has lived in NC long knows we often see warm sunny days like today followed by snow in the same week during this time in January. Yes. ** ALERT *** woof ... 12Z EURO MODEL ..12Z CANADIAN nd the 12z GFS ensembles (to a lessor degree ) ....all SHIFT the LOW off the SE US COAST FURTHER NW .. again.. BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO CENTRAL VA / CENTRAL NC and lower MD eastern shore ..and rain and or snow to se VA and eastern NC DOES THIS A BIG SNOWSTORM FOR EAST COAST? ? 1. This is rapidly Changing situation. The TREND over the past 3 model cycles is for this low to come "Up the coast " BUT because of the Upper air pattern over Noth America it can only come so far North. This Low isnt going to Cape Cod or the benchmark ( 40N and 70 W). 2. this is NOT 10 days out or 7 days .. its 5 days and closing FAST. keep in Mind The forecasts have to be OUT there by JAN 23... today is the 19th... so do the math 3 this event does have the support of MJO which is currently in Phase 8 (weak phase 8) which in JAN/ FEB / MAR is one of the east coast snowstorm phases 4 Low level temps are marginal . This means right near the ground it might be 34 and snow/ rain mix which does not accumulate **ALERT ** EUROPEAN MODEL ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE NW TREND... and the THE OPERATIONAL or " regular" WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? see below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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