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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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If this storm is gonna happen I need to see some positive "doings" on the models by tomorrow night, preferably sooner.  I don't recall exactly without going through the Christmas 2010 thread, but that storm reemerged just a few days out.  The maps delta posted do not look good at all for northern and southern stream interaction.

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If this storm is gonna happen I need to see some positive "doings" on the models by tomorrow night, preferably sooner. I don't recall exactly without going through the Christmas 2010 thread, but that storm reemerged just a few days out. The maps delta posted do not look good at all for northern and southern stream interaction.

The Christmas 2010 storm reemerged about 48-72 hours out, IIRC.

I believe in the DGEX.

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The Christmas 2010 storm reemerged about 48-72 hours out, IIRC.

I believe in the DGEX.

 

I don't want to get roasted too bad for saying this... but I really think the DGEX does a pretty good job of sniffying out legitimate threats in the 6/7 day time frame. 

 

I can tell you this... I've looked at basically every run of it this winter and last nights run was the first one to show a good shot at wintry precip for a lot on this board... On the other hand, each of the global models has given us some false hope numerous times this winter.

 

Maybe a Dgex/CMC combo will prove to be a good one?!

 

Disclaimer: I realize the many technical problems with the Dgex model in the long range... this is just my gut feeling on it the last few years

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The dgex is kinda like the jma. It can do a good job of sniffing out big dogs. It is best when we're having a good winter with many phasing opportunities. I remember it leading the euro and especially the GFS several times during the winter of 09/10.

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Timeline of events this week...

 

DGEX keeps monsters coming for next week

 

Gets into NAM range and is still there with still an insane amount of QPF and all/mostly snow

 

Within 60hrs QPF starts to back off or P-Type is Rain

 

Within 36 QPF goes to a small event with drizzle ending as snow/flizzard

 

Within 24hrs it's all 0

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I'm confused. What are we talking about? :o

 

I was completely lost too, but I think I figured it out.  Iso began by making a reference to the poster of questionable grammar skills (bobbitt).  Then, South_MountainWx completely misunderstood and took it as an allusion to the notorious domestic violence incident.  Then, it got crazy and Burns came along to add fuel to the dumpster fire of confusion with his hilarious image.

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I was completely lost too, but I think I figured it out.  Iso began by making a reference to the poster of questionable grammar skills (bobbitt).  Then, South_MountainWx completely misunderstood and took it as an allusion to the notorious domestic violence incident.  Then, it got crazy and Burns came along to add fuel to the dumpster fire of confusion with his hilarious image.

yep   :lol: 

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The dgex is kinda like the jma. It can do a good job of sniffing out big dogs. It is best when we're having a good winter with many phasing opportunities. I remember it leading the euro and especially the GFS several times during the winter of 09/10.

 

Well, the JMA has been onboard with a pretty beastly storm for awhile (granted, I didn't look at today's run).  With the DGEX onboard (and the NAVGEM, too), maybe there could be something to it.  Of course, the big dogs they show are only good for the northern SE (NC/TN) and would probably shaft GA, SC, & AL.

 

Timeline of events this week...

 

DGEX keeps monsters coming for next week

 

Gets into NAM range and is still there with still an insane amount of QPF and all/mostly snow

 

Within 60hrs QPF starts to back off or P-Type is Rain

 

Within 36 QPF goes to a small event with drizzle ending as snow/flizzard

 

Within 24hrs it's all 0

 

LOL, did you just do a recap of December 2000?

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:lmao: :lmao: ................. :cry: :cry: I don't wanna wait that long. Does the LORDS model show any snow for me this winter? I know the LORDS ensemble showed a big waycross snowstorm with 12/50 members with 36/50 showing over an inch before the end of winter.

 

The PITA Model shows a massive blizzard for Jamaica.  However, it has a tend to suppress storms, so I think you can correct that northwards.  The question is whether it ends with a blizzard for Key West or for Waycross.  It think we're too far north up here in NC for the January 2061 Superstorm.

 

The PITA Ensemble Mean shows a LP cluster around Havana, so that might be a prime track for Key West.

 

:lol:

 

(Yes, I know these LP tracks are basically impossible)

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