Solak Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Today's stupid comment award goes to Monte. Reading a story on Yahoo about Pope Francis' visit to the Philippines, and having to cut his visit to Leyte Island, ground zero for Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, because of an approaching storm... Monte 13 minutes ago "you'd think that he'd have his people check the forecast ahead of time? They've got typhoons approaching! Well, it could be worse, I suppose. At least they aren't hurricanes" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Shetley wake up!! The big rainstorm is showing back up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 No its not February but from everything I'm reading here and the other post it doesn't look good. The storm for next Friday is starting to look like a non storm for anyone. Looks too suppressed for the mtns. even though the mtns. look cold enough. the central and eastern NC looks like rain because temps are to warm. Just going from what all the met experts are seeing for the next 10 days or so. When I played baseball, if we were down by a run or two after 4 innings, we usually packed things up, cleaned the dugout, and headed to the locker room. We usually just assumed it wasn't going to happen....C'mon man!! No chance for the rest of January? For the mountains?? What consistency of mets and models are you looking at that are giving solid evidence to write off the rest of the month? The models are swinging from run to run. Most mets are gun shy to stick their neck out beyond 3 days because of that. Even if the 23-24 storm strikes out, we will likely be in a rather favorable pattern for the last week of January. There is also evidence of energy behind the 23-24 storm. Certainly not a slam dunk, but certainly not a write off either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Here is Winter for ya.....................Bayfield, WI http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/bayfield-inn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Shetley wake up!! The big rainstorm is showing back up!Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Brick has been scarce this weekend ! We have a semi legit storm threat, and he's leaving us hanging! I can't live without his model analysis, I mean regurgitation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Brick has been scarce this weekend ! We have a semi legit storm threat, and he's leaving us hanging! I can't live without his model analysis, I mean regurgitation! He said the other day he was really busy this weekend. Hopefully he returns later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 He said the other day he was really busy this weekend. Hopefully he returns later todayHe'll definately be back in full swing tomorrow , I'm sure he won't let work get in the way of him weenieing out! Maybe I can get Roberts thoughts from Brick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Brick has been scarce this weekend ! We have a semi legit storm threat, and he's leaving us hanging! I can't live without his model analysis, I mean regurgitation! A legit threat? I know you are not talking about that storm for next week with surface temperatures in the 40s. I don't even know how the GFS is even showing snow with those temps! 6z GFS shows NGA going from light snow in the morning with temps above freezing to temps in the 50s later that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 When I played baseball, if we were down by a run or two after 4 innings, we usually packed things up, cleaned the dugout, and headed to the locker room. We usually just assumed it wasn't going to happen....C'mon man!! No chance for the rest of January? For the mountains?? What consistency of mets and models are you looking at that are giving solid evidence to write off the rest of the month? The models are swinging from run to run. Most mets are gun shy to stick their neck out beyond 3 days because of that. Even if the 23-24 storm strikes out, we will likely be in a rather favorable pattern for the last week of January. There is also evidence of energy behind the 23-24 storm. Certainly not a slam dunk, but certainly not a write off either. You both have very valid points. It would be silly to say the winter is over, but the reality to this point is that it has been nonexistent when it comes to winter precipitation. Someone else said this has been a cooler version of 2011-2012, and I think that is right on the mark. This truly has been a Lucy winter in terms of precipitation and often in terms of temperatures as well. Every time someone says "the pattern looking good after day 10" I can't help but chuckle because we have literally been saying that since end of Nov. All I know to do is take a wait and see approach. I think counting on anything past a few days is pretty pointless right now. I could very well see the second half as a carbon copy of the first, but I could also see a good pattern and results some time over the next 6 weeks too. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 A legit threat? I know you are not talking about that storm for next week with surface temperatures in the 40s. I don't even know how the GFS is even showing snow with those temps! 6z GFS shows NGA going from light snow in the morning with temps above freezing to temps in the 50s later that afternoon.It's like 5-6 days away, it will trend colder and we all know, with that track and precip, temps wouldn't warm into the 50s in NGA! The models haven't sniffed out the dynamic cooling yet. You keep complaining about hot and no rain, and I will be sleddind by Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Wow check out whats happening in the NE with the ice storm and Philadelphia area with 60 car pile up. I'm pretty sure they were expecting much but rain. Even checking some of the models from lastnight, I dont see much frozen precipitation showing up. Here is the forecast from the NWS for Philadelphia where its currently 32 and moderate freezing rain. Periods of rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 45. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It's like 5-6 days away, it will trend colder and we all know, with that track and precip, temps wouldn't warm into the 50s in NGA! The models haven't sniffed out the dynamic cooling yet. You keep complaining about hot and no rain, and I will be sleddind by Friday! Yeah you are right! These models don't have a clue whats going on. They have warm biases and dynamic cooling hasn't even been sniffed out yet! GSP better start issuing winter storm watches soon or you guys will end up like Philadelphia is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah you are right! These models don't have a clue whats going on. They have warm biases and dynamic cooling hasn't even been sniffed out yet! GSP better start issuing winter storm watches soon or you guys will end up like Philadelphia is today. Looks windy, I'm thinking Blizzard warnings may be needed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 He'll definately be back in full swing tomorrow , I'm sure he won't let work get in the way of him weenieing out! Maybe I can get Roberts thoughts from Brick? He'll show up right at the 5 day mark so he can start the thread before anyone else can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 He'll show up right at the 5 day mark so he can start the thread before anyone else can. But now the pbp thread is for threats more than 3 days out. I hope we don't have another kurfuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 But now the pbp thread is for threats more than 3 days out. I hope we don't have another kurfuffle. Lol, see I've already forgotten! No way Brick remembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 He'll show up right at the 5 day mark so he can start the thread before anyone else can.It'll just get locked, I lived it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Pretty sure this NE ice event was / is a disaster and caught alot of people off guard. I remember the other day , TWC was saying how this would be an elevation event and only western half of NY/PA would see any frozen precip!??? Oops, Ball dropped! Funny , they are not mentioning their blown forecast! Massive pile ups everywhere in PA, NJ , etc. ! And they say we can't drive in ice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gsp seems to think its on the table. If you live along and nw of I-85 from GSP to RAE its definitely worth watching. I know temps are iffy but IF i say if folks rates are heavy enough dynamic cooling could save us to get some heavy wet snow. My favorite personally ive seen it start at 35 picked up in intensity an the temp fell to 33 and started covering the road. Got four inches that storm it was march of last year best cad snow event in my life! It was all rain in Asheville that morning but as soon as you got to ridgecrest all yhe way down to marion all snow. First for all of my mountain life and talk about the cut off it went from four inches at low gap on Mcdowell Rutherford line sighn in a matter of feet one side rain the other snow. I pulled over and my hood was getting rained on while my bed was snow. I mean normally youll go throu a mix for a little strech in either direction before one takes over the other but not that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gsp seems to think its on the table. If you live along and nw of I-85 from GSP to RAE its definitely worth watching. I know temps are iffy but IF i say if folks rates are heavy enough dynamic cooling could save us to get some heavy wet snow. My favorite personally ive seen it start at 35 picked up in intensity an the temp fell to 33 and started covering the road. Got four inches that storm it was march of last year best cad snow event in my life! It was all rain in Asheville that morning but as soon as you got to ridgecrest all yhe way down to marion all snow. First for all of my mountain life and talk about the cut off it went from four inches at low gap on Mcdowell Rutherford line sighn in a matter of feet one side rain the other snow. I pulled over and my hood was getting rained on while my bed was snow. I mean normally youll go throu a mix for a little strech in either direction before one takes over the other but not that day. are you related to the bobbitt clan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Pretty sure this NE ice event was / is a disaster and caught alot of people off guard. I remember the other day , TWC was saying how this would be an elevation event and only western half of NY/PA would see any frozen precip!??? Oops, Ball dropped! Funny , they are not mentioning their blown forecast! Massive pile ups everywhere in PA, NJ , etc. ! And they say we can't drive in ice!! Yes,this is what I was saying earlier. NWS blew the forecast as well and the models except for the RGEM and HRRR as of last night. Even looking at the 6z GFS, it still wasn't showing ice anywhere where it's occuring now. I don't think TWC is going to admit they blew the forecast as well as the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yes,this is what I was saying earlier. NWS blew the forecast as well and the models except for the RGEM and HRRR as of last night. Even looking at the 6z GFS, it still wasn't showing ice anywhere where it's occuring now. I don't think TWC is going to admit they blew the forecast as well as the NWS.Gives me hope for Thursday! Don't give up until you see just cold rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Lol No worrys there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gives me hope for Thursday! Don't give up until you see just cold rain! I'm dah pahty poopah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm dah pahty poopah! image.jpg We called up Brick, Bettlegeuse style! He's back! We need to come up with code names for him so we can talk about him without waking him up?Maybe captain Regurgitator? Mr tablesetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 are you related to the bobbitt clan?Poor dude you know theres support groups for you guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Poor dude you know theres support groups for you guys.... ..or Cold Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 ..or Cold Rain?Honestly i think thats just as bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm confused. What are we talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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