superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Brick's locked thread storm has WWAs hoisted for some areas of the SE today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 We're never going to be able to track a storm in from 10 days out. It'll probably show up for real inside 4-5 days, if it shows up. I hope we get one to show up before the end of this month. It is frustrating to read about how good the pattern looks going into the next two weeks but not have a real storm to track, or to have something good show up 10 days out only to go away the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This morning's freezing fog event might be the biggest storm of the winter. #Overperformer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I hope we get one to show up before the end of this month. It is frustrating to read about how good the pattern looks going into the next two weeks but not have a real storm to track, or to have something good show up 10 days out only to go away the next day. Just to be clear on one point, the next 7 days or so are not going to feature a good pattern for a winter storm. After that, things look better. But you shouldn't get your hopes up on a specific threat in the 7+ day out time frame. If we get the pattern show on the ensembles, I will bet that you will have something to get your hopes up about in a week or so from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Brick's locked thread storm has WWAs hoisted for some areas of the SE today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Nobody uses the 540 line anymore. Soundings are best, followed by 850 and surface temperatures, equaled by the low-level thicknesses (1000-850 and 850-700). I use the 540 line when SFC temps are below freezing and 850's are there. If you have 850's and SFC but 540 line is north of you 9 times out of 10 it will be sleet. Also it comes in really handy to determine the overall heavy axis of snow when a ULL rolls through. When you see that 540 line circle snow is going to fall and you know you have a cold enough core. Either way you have to use all of it together as most of the time you need all of them in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Today's storm is looking way better than the freezing drizzle dud a day ago!!! This one has actual snow!!! Time for an obs thread, stat! Long live the 15/16 storm thread!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Today's storm is looking way better than the freezing drizzle dud a day ago!!! This one has actual snow!!! Time for an obs thread, stat! Long live the 15/16 storm thread!!! Looks like northern AL and MS are getting snow and ice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looks like northern AL and MS are getting snow and ice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looks like northern AL and MS are getting snow and ice now. You have the magic touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Look at the accuweather se radr ptype and hit play. I double dog dare you in east TN or NC. Looks can be deceiving but it looks like a winter storm fixing to roll from Murphy to Manteo. Been a long time since I seen a radar look this sexy. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I use the 540 line when SFC temps are below freezing and 850's are there. If you have 850's and SFC but 540 line is north of you 9 times out of 10 it will be sleet. Also it comes in really handy to determine the overall heavy axis of snow when a ULL rolls through. When you see that 540 line circle snow is going to fall and you know you have a cold enough core. Either way you have to use all of it together as most of the time you need all of them in tandem.Then use the low-level thicknesses or soundings. That would be a better way to get a good picture of what's going to go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Brick's locked thread storm has WWAs hoisted for some areas of the SE today. It's not happening in NC or SC so it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's not happening in NC or SC so it doesn't matter. Dont you forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's not happening in NC or SC so it doesn't matter. Do we have any posters here from AL and MS? It seems most are from NC, SC, and GA. A few from VA and FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It's not happening in NC or SC so it doesn't matter.What about Carrollton Ga?I think that's the sweet spot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Do we have any posters here from AL and MS? It seems most are from NC, SC, and GA. A few from VA and FL. I'm close enough. I can see AL from my house. Does that count ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You have the magic touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I can't believe there's not more talk in the discussion thread. Pattern in the long range is the best it's looked all winter IMO. Not guaranteed, but man I'm starting to think this winter may not be an epic fail....starting to. Not quite there yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It looks like RDU is averaging somewhere around -3 degrees so far for January. Looking at the next 7 days forecast we should at least average normal if not slightly below. So basically we will go through the first three weeks of January, in a crappy pattern, averaging well below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It looks like RDU is averaging somewhere around -3 degrees so far for January. Looking at the next 7 days forecast we should at least average normal if not slightly below. So basically we will go through the first three weeks of January, in a crappy pattern, averaging well below normal. Below normal temps and above average precip, but still no snow. Hopefully, things will change and we'll get the right mix soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It looks like RDU is averaging somewhere around -3 degrees so far for January. Looking at the next 7 days forecast we should at least average normal if not slightly below. So basically we will go through the first three weeks of January, in a crappy pattern, averaging well below normal. CAE is at -1.5. Our highest temp was 73 on the 4th and lowest was 17 on the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I wonder when people are going to accept the fact that we won't have any major winter storms in the Se this year. .. we been chasing a pattern change this whole winter but keeps getting pushed back.. it's the middle of January we are running out of time.. if you look on the models there is a low over the great lakes region almost the entire run it goes away but comes right back... other than western nc and people in the mountains I think everyone else is doomed when it comes to a winter storm this year... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I wonder when people are going to accept the fact that we won't have any major winter storms in the Se this year. .. . When the ball drops in Times Square on New Years Eve!!! Not a second sooner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I wonder when people are going to accept the fact that we won't have any major winter storms in the Se this year. .. we been chasing a pattern change this whole winter but keeps getting pushed back.. it's the middle of January we are running out of time.. if you look on the models there is a low over the great lakes region almost the entire run it goes away but comes right back... other than western nc and people in the mountains I think everyone else is doomed when it comes to a winter storm this year... . Maybe when winter is actually over in March. Still too early to make a prediction like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 2011-2012 was a total stinkfest. If Jan. was like that I would be worried. I remember multiple times going out to lunch with my friend who is from Australia and eating outside during that winter. There has been maybe one or two days this winter that I've even contemplated eating outside for lunch during work. Not scientific but that's how I judge a truly "bad" winter. It sucks we have no snow but at least we have real chances....which is more than I can say for that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Maybe when winter is actually over in March. Still too early to make a prediction like that. No it's not. It's not going to snow in the SE. It's not going to snow in the SE. It's not going to snow in the SE. It's not going to snow in the SE. Why? Because. Just because. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Prepare for a cutter at 12z GFS! It's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 2011-2012 was a total stinkfest. If Jan. was like that I would be worried. I remember multiple times going out to lunch with my friend who is from Australia and eating outside during that winter. There has been maybe one or two days this winter that I've even contemplated eating outside for lunch during work. Not scientific but that's how I judge a truly "bad" winter. It sucks we have no snow but at least we have real chances....which is more than I can say for that winter. Yepp... The only saving grace that winter was really low heating bills and our epic chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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