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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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I need a "Where are they now?" EUSWX update for this board.

 

Sickman

JamieO

allman

jxdama/rainstorm

dendrite (Brian)

dfuzz (RIP)

Vortmax (Marcus)

Sandy

SacrydDreamz (Randy)

Rob

Eek

forkyfork

Zonties

WEATHER53 (Howard)

(I'm assuming stormtracker Randy, zwyts and Ian are in the MA forum still? I don't venture there.)

 

There are more old names I remember, but that's all I have for now.

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I see and everything that was said here is true in my eyes, I try to keep my posts from becoming too lengthy & technical ( I could do much more than this), however I think this is just another case of watching the conditions at hand (which models use to assimilate, initialize, etc. & w/ their flawed, yet realistic derivations often having an understood margin of error, are inadvertently self-destructive (if that's the adequate term to use her) w/ error increasing growth with time) reigning over model guidance. Apart from looking at short range events, I use the models sparingly if @ all to mold my ideas for long range forecasting. I've actually reached the point now where  I possess little-if any passion whatsoever for watching their every run like I used to several years ago and I often go on several day spells without looking at a single model run, yet still am able to come away w/ the basic ideas in an upcoming pattern. One could only imagine... I see absolutely nothing wrong w/ watching the models from a passive enthusiast standpoint, however if you desire to make something of your passion for the weather, would like to take it several steps forward, or are just plain sick of the models in general ( I personally hope that last proposition resonates with somebody here, lol), I implore that it's in your best interest to start delving into the processes that govern weather patterns in a broad sense & their throng of teleconnections, among other things. If you are incessantly hungry for this desire to attain a wealth of knowledge, (which in this day & age lays conveniently at your fingertips, you just have to know where to look), and you want it badly enough, eventually, you'll reach a point where, the notion that "the more you know the more you realize you don't know" will "suddenly" reverberate throughout every pore, & that's when you'll know that you've started to become wise. ( @ least as it pertains to weather, but this statement is applicable in other situations as well. Also, expelling inherent bias will take you very far, and for me the 2013 Hurricane Season was the last straw. since that time, I've taken an implicit & unwritten oath of sorts, to stress exercising impartiality above all else & to quell the aspirations of the weather weenie within...

 

 

In light of all the research & data I've posted here & am currently well aware, I would likely go w/ a number somewhere around 75-80% which remarkably, narrowly exceeds the historical probability for below normal temperatures the temperatures in NC, SC, & GA in February within this ENSO base state (70%). Uncertainty (in terms of the ferocity & precisely when the pattern turns favorable (again)) & caution are the two main pre-conditions (mentally) that are withholding me from raising these %ages to near 90-95 percent.. 

Wow......what an ego....smh........me! me! me! me! is all I hear you say. You have mastered egocentrism 

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