mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Exactly! That's how it's done!I'm on pins and needles for the 0z GFS ! It's going to be rocking , and after the Euro does not show a bomb, I'm expecting to wake up and have my thread unlocked and atleast 2 new pages!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The euro will not show a phased super bombA phased bomb would definitely be better because the smoke from the explosion would be more widespread and denser than a non phased bomb. This in turn would allow more blockage of the sun lowering heights over the SE and offshore where the phased Bomb happened, thus forcing higher heights up near Greenland giving U.S. long lasting blocking. Fabulous February here we come!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 What I'm saying is that a repeating helpful blocking pattern has not been in place since 09/10. What I am not saying is that there haven't been some specific dates or periods over the last 4 years that have seen an effective -NAO in whatever months one wants to use to describe winter. Sorry I wasn't specific. There's a reason that most folks have complained about the "elusive" -NAO over the last few years. Either way, it's not worth arguing about. I'll give you the Bill O'Reilly last word and drop the mic. The entire point about the NAO being helpful in the first place is for those few specific instances when we actually have a legitimate chance at getting wintry weather here in NC... 2009-10 set records for lowest averaged -NAO/AO since at least 1950, comparing the last 4 winters to that is a strawman... Again, you can't argue w/ the actual numbers which show the majority of the last several winters featuring a predominantly negative NAO, the lack of El Ninos in the first half of the decade is directly related to the NAO spikes in subsequent winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I guess the raging +NAO/AO is good for something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I hope we get a rapper's delight. here ya go.......https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cELt9nCWY_0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I guess the raging +NAO/AO is good for something... 2015-01-11 22.17.29.png My father is an airline pilot for US Airways/American (and once upon a time Piedmont) and has flown internationally to Europe a lot out of Charlotte. They plan their flights based on where the jet stream is setting up, etc. The routes they take over the North Atlantic vary by the day, which is pretty neat. Of course, on the westward journey, they try to avoid the jet stream to avoid taking on too much headwind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Great, let's look at Jan-March NAO's over the past 10 years. I haven't looked yet but I bet more than half are +. Again you're missing the entire point of my original post, the NAO over the last 10 years is headed dow as the AMO loads the NAO/AO pattern over decadal timescales, & its the actual change in the NAO/AO not so much its phase that is important when looking at relationships to the AMO itself... and no the majority of the JFM NAOs over the last decade are not positive, once again you're making an invalid assumption. Exactly half of all JFM NAOs over the last ten years are negative. That's a far cry from the early-mid 1990s at the end of the last -AMO phase when 20-25 yeasr underneath a stronger than normal SST/height gradient reinvigorated the Icelandic Vortex. Year JFM NAO 2004-05 -0.523 2005-06 -0.600 2006-07 -0.040 2007-08 +0.567 2008-09 +0.207 2009-10 -1.940 2010-11 +0.143 2011-12 +0.953 2012-13 -0.570 2013-14 +0.447 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Again you're missing the entire point of my original post, the NAO over the last 10 years is headed dow as the AMO loads the NAO/AO pattern over decadal timescales, & its the actual change in the NAO/AO not so much its phase that is important when looking at relationships to the AMO itself... and no the majority of the JFM NAOs over the last decade are not positive, once again you're making an invalid assumption. Exactly half of all JFM NAOs over the last ten years are negative. That's a far cry from the early-mid 1990s at the end of the last -AMO phase when 20-25 yeasr underneath a stronger than normal SST/height gradient reinvigorated the Icelandic Vortex. Year JFM NAO 2004-05 -0.523 2005-06 -0.600 2006-07 -0.040 2007-08 +0.567 2008-09 +0.207 2009-10 -1.940 2010-11 +0.143 2011-12 +0.953 2012-13 -0.570 2013-14 +0.447 Thanks! Cool stats...interesting 5 of past 7 were positive, this year will probably make 6 of 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Interestingly, of those 5 years with mean -NAO, only one of them actually produced significant wintry weather: 09/10. The period 04/05 through 07/08 was remarkably snowless, with the exception of 06/07 which had two minor events around here (<0.5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm loving this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) 1/11/15, 20:22 Beautiful! MT @severeweatherEU: Rare snow blanket across Saudi Arabia desert near the town of Tabuk. pic.twitter.com/QHd5ADERn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I guess the raging +NAO/AO is good for something... 2015-01-11 22.17.29.png *facepalm* No, it did not reach near supersonic speed. It was cruising at the same speed it normally would (approx. .8 Mach, give or take a bit). Speed through the air is what matters when talking about being supersonic, not speed over the ground. On another note, I really wish it would stop raining for about 10 days or so (and preferably be warm, too). I'm trying to pour a slab and it won't stay dry long enough for me to finish doing all the prep work. Y'all can have your winter weather after that; I just need a few days... please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Shetley, it is a pouring out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Shetley, it is a pouring out there! 1" of...... ...rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Rain is done here for now, but did get .75 overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Just checked the last 200 radar images. ##ck this rain event. How does that even happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 1" of...... ...rain. Last time I saw this much standing water everywhere was the Big Wet of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Last time I saw this much standing water everywhere was the Big Wet of 2013.Lucky. I woke up this morning, heard thunder, then checked the radar and was excited. Then when I put the radar into motion......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Rain now gone here. Was heavy around 430. Water standing in many ditches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 OMG - this site is spamming the s*** out of my Chrome all of the sudden. Ads on ads on ads on ads...pop-ups and auto run scripts... all with malware efficiency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I guess KATL got tired of everyone complaining about how much warmer they were than the surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Lucky. I woke up this morning, heard thunder, then checked the radar and was excited. Then when I put the radar into motion......... You could always move to NC. Then you could lose in basketball too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Back to rain and temps in the 40s, which we had here every week in December. It would probably be safer if it was snow. Then folks would have an excuse to stay off the roads. It is miserable out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 OMG - this site is spamming the s*** out of my Chrome all of the sudden. Ads on ads on ads on ads...pop-ups and auto run scripts... all with malware efficiency. All part of the donation drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 All part of the donation drive. I'd rather not come back at all than be bullied by spam and auto-script downloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'd rather not come back at all than be bullied by spam and auto-script downloads. I haven't had any problems....but I run Adblock and Adaware. Both show 1-2 ads per page being blocked. Are you sure you didn't download some malware and it's running the script on specific pages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I haven't had any problems....but I run Adblock and Adaware. Both show 1-2 ads per page being blocked. Are you sure you didn't download some malware and it's running the script on specific pages? AmWx is the only site that triggers such a reaction, which is a weird site to choose for unloading a script, but I suppose it's a possibility. And it only happens with Chrome. Could be an extension issue. Google has been known to backdoor sneaky stuff into updates (left that open on purpose... ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'd rather not come back at all than be bullied by spam and auto-script downloads. You know I'm just messing with you, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 You know I'm just messing with you, right? I'm wouldn't be inclined to think it was actually on the AmWx side. It only happens with Chrome, which has a history of such behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I'm wouldn't be inclined to think it was actually on the AmWx side. It only happens with Chrome, which has a history of such behavior. I never use Chrome. I either use Firefox or IE (work). I was thinking about switching to it at work because my colleague says she likes it better than IE. But you're making me think twice about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.