mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Honestly, WTF, is it July already?We are getting close to 4 - button territory, based on that map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 We are getting close to 4 - button territory, based on that map! Hahahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 This makes me sick to my stomach. Just one event like this a winter would solve a lot of grief here. We've seen stranger things happen though in El Nino winters, take for instance 1982-83... areas south & east of Raleigh virtually had little-no snow up thru mid-late March & "seemingly" out of nowhere comes and delivers an extreme late season ( & their only snow for that matter) within 10 days of easter. Then it decided to snow again in Raleigh that spring on April 18, picked up another 1.8 inches of snow, their latest measurable snow on record... Now that is truly nuts 5212 dam upper Level Low over the Great Lakes in mid April. Yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 No doubt. If we get a storm with even half the amount we had in 2011 that would ease a bunch of frustration. I know what you are saying. But, no it would not, especially with all of the early predications of doom and gloom....I am through.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Well the correlation is correct & I explained why several days ago... It's not so much that -AMO=+NAO or +AMO=-NAO, but the change in the sign of the derivative in the NAO/AO when the AMO switches phases i.e. the AO/NAO average begin to decrease as the +AMO comes on, & vis versa, however there's an appreciable residence time at the front half of the multidecadal AMO phase cycle where the decadal AO/NAO average will not change sign. To put things into perspective, at the most recent -AO/NAO trough, by the mid-late 1960s, we had been in the +AMO since 1925, about 40 years, a lot of time to load the NAO & AO negative. Whereas we only entered the recent +AMO phase in 1995, and have a meager 20 years to our repertoire, but the average is still falling regardless. If we didn't have a dearth of El Ninos in the earlier half of this decade, the AO/NAO average would likely be quite a bit lower than where it is now... http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/JFM-Seasonal-AONAO-Index-AMO-Regime-Flips-102jpg I agree with you, tendency should be increased -NAO, but it hasn't for whatever reason. If anything we have had more +NAO's the past 4-5 years. Unfortunate, lots of should have and could have's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I agree with you, tendency should be increased -NAO, but it hasn't for whatever reason. If anything we have had more +NAO's the past 4-5 years. Unfortunate, lots of should have and could have's... Didn't I just show you the data that makes that claim utter garbage? Take your pick, 3 -NAO winters in the last 5 years, or 2 in the last 4, neither supports the erroneous premise that we've had more +NAOs in the past 4-5 years... Winter DJFM AO DJFM NAO 2009-10 -2.675 -2.260 2010-11 -0.329 -0.993 2011-12 +0.751 +1.047 2012-13 -0.921 -0.333 2013-14 +0.439 +0.563 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 We've seen stranger things happen though in El Nino winters, take for instance 1982-83... areas south & east of Raleigh virtually had little-no snow up thru mid-late March & "seemingly" out of nowhere comes and delivers an extreme late season ( & their only snow for that matter) within 10 days of easter. Then it decided to snow again in Raleigh that spring on April 18, picked up another 1.8 inches of snow, their latest measurable snow on record... Now that is truly nuts 5212 dam upper Level Low over the Great Lakes in mid April. Yeah... Good post. We are all holding out hope that February and march rock. I've seen plenty of late snows. And it seems they are always the strongest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Didn't I just show you the data that makes that claim utter garbage? Take your pick, 3 -NAO winters in the last 5 years, or 2 in the last 4, neither supports the erroneous premise that we've had more +NAOs in the past 4-5 years... Winter DJFM AO DJFM NAO 2009-10 -2.675 -2.260 2010-11 -0.329 -0.993 2011-12 +0.751 +1.047 2012-13 -0.921 -0.333 2013-14 +0.439 +0.563 When you look at met winter (DJF) 12/13 is +NAO and with this winter being solidly + that will make 4 winters in a row. Even if you go with March's it's 3 +NAO and one neutral. Bleak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Good post. We are all holding out hope that February and march rock. I've seen plenty of late snows. And it seems they are always the strongest. Agreed, & the late season snows when they occur have to be heavy in order to overcome warmer ground/air temps temps, higher sun angle, etc... This is the most extreme case of what would termed as a "backloaded winter" I've seen in the historical record across central-eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Those always verify 100%! That map looked like that 3 days before we went below freezing for about 36 hours straight. Thanks for sharing though, anyway you can throw a warm situation into the mix is always welcome and amazing! like i said, "just for laughs" banter i know what that is and it's done on weekends with no human input just got tired of basketball and ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 When you look at met winter (DJF) 12/13 is +NAO and with this winter being solidly + that will make 4 winters in a row. Even if you go with March's it's 3 +NAO and one neutral. Bleak... Now you're just grasping at straws... NOAA used the JFM tri-monthly to denote the seasonal/decadal AO & NAO trends, using a DJFM period is entirely within reason, especially considering March is after all about 50% more snowy on average here in Raleigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The stats are the stats. But we have not had a winter where a -NAO has been very helpful since 09/10. In the end, that's what matters, and that's what's been so depressing about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The stats are the stats. But we have not had a winter where a -NAO has been very helpful since 09/10. In the end, that's what matters, and that's what's been so depressing about it. 2010-11 wasn't helpful? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I know what you are saying. But, no it would not, especially with all of the early predications of doom and gloom....I am through.... No one here is through. If you were through, you would leave, not read any more on this site, nor would you post anymore. You can all moan and complain about how awful a winter it has been, it is, or it will be, but none of you are truly through. Hope is in your blood. You can't give up the possibility of even seeing a single flake before this winter comes to an end. And, you will continue to look at the next model run and hope and pray for change. Otherwise, you would not be posting on a weather forum in the SE in winter. /drops mic /walks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 /drops mic /walks out Hahahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 2010-11 wasn't helpful? Lets lighten up. Everyones opinion doesn't have to math yours. This is petty, since it boils down to whether or not to include 3/13. At this point, who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 May be time to face the fact that most of the SE has already had all the winter weather it will see this winter. I just don't see this pattern changing anytime soon.so this upcoming week is going to be very cold with multiple days below freezing? What happened to the warmup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Now you're just grasping at straws... NOAA used the JFM tri-monthly to denote the seasonal/decadal AO & NAO trends, using a DJFM period is entirely within reason, especially considering March is after all about 50% more snowy on average here in Raleigh... Great, let's look at Jan-March NAO's over the past 10 years. I haven't looked yet but I bet more than half are +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Rolaids. And just for laughs .... I hope you feel better soon! Just saw this post in the pattern discussion thread. Hmm. Step down. Haven't I seen that before? I knew I'd heard that term at least once before. Must be baby steps. Indeed. Actually, step down, can quickly turn into, beat down. Don't worry.....the pattern change is only 14 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I hope you feel better soon! Don't worry.....the pattern change is only 14 days away Thanks, buckeye! I'm just hoping this real true blue flu is gone before 14 days or whenever the pattern flips! In a couple years, if I catch it again, I'll be able to send my Rx to Jon for filling .... In the meantime and at least until I'm fever free, I'm sticking with banter... it's safer here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 2010-11 wasn't helpful? What I'm saying is that a repeating helpful blocking pattern has not been in place since 09/10. What I am not saying is that there haven't been some specific dates or periods over the last 4 years that have seen an effective -NAO in whatever months one wants to use to describe winter. Sorry I wasn't specific. There's a reason that most folks have complained about the "elusive" -NAO over the last few years. Either way, it's not worth arguing about. I'll give you the Bill O'Reilly last word and drop the mic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 What I'm saying is that a repeating helpful blocking pattern has not been in place since 09/10. What I am not saying is that there haven't been some specific dates or periods over the last 4 years that have seen an effective -NAO in whatever months one wants to use to describe winter. Sorry I wasn't specific. There's a reason that most folks have complained about the "elusive" -NAO over the last few years. Either way, it's not worth arguing about. I'll give you the Bill O'Reilly last word and drop the mic. Plus, we didn't get any snow from that event, another kick to groin... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Plus, we didn't get any snow from that event, another kick to groin... :-) Did we get anything? I'm not going to go back and research it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Did we get anything? I'm not going to go back and research it.Get Brick to do it for you at work tomorrow ! In between his posts of " we will get something frozen this week" and " the last 10 days of January will produce " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Did we get anything? I'm not going to go back and research it. No, flurries. Webber posted the map above, just another typical fringe job for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The stats are the stats. But we have not had a winter where a -NAO has been very helpful since 09/10. In the end, that's what matters, and that's what's been so depressing about it.10-11 had a nice negative nao for the first half. 12-13 had one in February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 No, flurries. Webber posted the map above, just another typical fringe job for us. Ok thanks. On mobile, so I didn't make the connection. I do like Mack's idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Thanks, buckeye! I'm just hoping this real true blue flu is gone before 14 days or whenever the pattern flips! In a couple years, if I catch it again, I'll be able to send my Rx to Jon for filling .... In the meantime and at least until I'm fever free, I'm sticking with banter... it's safer here Safe? HA! Never forget.......... THE SHINGLES VIRUS IS ALREADY INSIDE YOUR BODY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 10-11 had a nice negative nao for the first half. 12-13 had one in February and March. Ok, well, it looks like I'm completely wrong then. I shall withdraw my complaint and profoundly apologize to the court for wasting its time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Safe? HA! Never forget.......... THE SHINGLES VIRUS IS ALREADY INSIDE YOUR BODY On that note .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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