superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 18z GFS just suffering from suppression bias. My unskewing of the non-event turned it into 12-18" for most of SC/NC. Just an FWI. If the GFS wasn't a horrible model, that would have put January 2000 to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 We can stick fork in that, the coastal, -AO,-NAO, SAI, OPI, MJO, QBO, snow, this winter, next winter, winter after..,, What's a -NAO? I only know of +NAOs. I've read about -NAOs in archaic history books that are coated with thick layers of dust, but it doesn't seem to have any relevance to the modern world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 What's a -NAO? I only know of +NAOs. I've read about -NAOs in archaic history books that are coated with thick layers of dust, but it doesn't seem to have any relevance to the modern world. Back when the dinosaurs roamed the earth I think it had some relevance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 What's a -NAO? I only know of +NAOs. I've read about -NAOs in archaic history books that are coated with thick layers of dust, but it doesn't seem to have any relevance to the modern world. The NAO/AO interdecadal averages as expected in the latter half of this +AMO cycle are still falling, but I digress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 And now the face punch from the NWS GSP just posted on Twitter. Reminder of what we don't have Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 GFS is about to come in huge!Huge dumpster fire and dry all week! Time to lock all the threads, unless we start one for dry!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 And now the face punch from the NWS GSP just posted on Twitter. Reminder of what we don't have Sent from my iPhone Oh I remember that storm very well... Back in Fayetteville I was finally able to enjoy a nice snowstorm for once (missed the post xmas storm for a hockey tournament) Picked up a solid 5 inches of snow... I certainly got a kick out of Raleigh & Greensboro getting screwed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 The NAO/AO interdecadal averages as expected in the latter half of this +AMO cycle are still falling, but I digress Assuming the correlation is correct we should see more -NAO winters with +AMO but we haven't the past 5 winters, including this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Huge dumpster fire and dry all week! Time to lock all the threads, unless we start one for dry!? I didn't specify. Huge is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Lol at the accumulation difference in the two maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 ATLANTA HAWKS are unstoppable..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Assuming the correlation is correct we should see more -NAO winters with +AMO but we haven't the past 5 winters, including this one. That's the thing with all of these long range/extended medium range outlooks, they are all based under the assumption that everything will follow in textbook style, but that doesn't happen Such is weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Carolina by 10 on Wednesday. Good looking out beating dook today though, thanks to the cow palace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 May be time to face the fact that most of the SE has already had all the winter weather it will see this winter. I just don't see this pattern changing anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 May be time to face the fact that most of the SE has already had all the winter weather it will see this winter. I just don't see this pattern changing anytime soon.Man, didnt you get the memo, the heart of winter in a weak modaki niño , is Feb and March!! Stock up on firewood now, while it's cheap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Man, didnt you get the memo, the heart of winter in a weak modaki niño , is Feb and March!! Stock up on firewood now, while it's cheap! If that happens i hope it'll be Feb and not March. By then i'm ready for 70's and storms. A March like 2012 would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Carolina by 10 on Wednesday. Good looking out beating dook today though, thanks to the cow palace.What are you smoking? I need some of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Assuming the correlation is correct we should see more -NAO winters with +AMO but we haven't the past 5 winters, including this one. Yeah, ok... The AO & the NAO have been negative in the last 3 of 5 winters (DJFM), this one isn't even halfway over yet of course. That's a majority of the past 5, so yes we have been getting more -NAO winters of late, whether you realize it or not... Winter DJFM AO DJFM NAO 2009-10 -2.675 -2.260 2010-11 -0.329 -0.993 2011-12 +0.751 +1.047 2012-13 -0.921 -0.333 2013-14 +0.439 +0.563 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Carolina by 10 on Wednesday. Good looking out beating dook today though, thanks to the cow palace. :blink: I have no clue what you just tried to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Assuming the correlation is correct we should see more -NAO winters with +AMO but we haven't the past 5 winters, including this one. Well the correlation is correct & I explained why several days ago... It's not so much that -AMO=+NAO or +AMO=-NAO, but the change in the sign of the derivative in the NAO/AO when the AMO switches phases i.e. the AO/NAO average begin to decrease as the +AMO comes on, & vis versa, however there's an appreciable residence time at the front half of the multidecadal AMO phase cycle where the decadal AO/NAO average will not change sign. To put things into perspective, at the most recent -AO/NAO trough, by the mid-late 1960s, we had been in the +AMO since 1925, about 40 years, a lot of time to load the NAO & AO negative. Whereas we only entered the recent +AMO phase in 1995, and have a meager 20 years to our repertoire, but the average is still falling regardless. If we didn't have a dearth of El Ninos in the earlier half of this decade, the AO/NAO average would likely be quite a bit lower than where it is now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 And now the face punch from the NWS GSP just posted on Twitter. Reminder of what we don't have Sent from my iPhone I saved the surface map from that event. One of the few storms that had a frozen ground before the storm which allowed for higher accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 January 2011 was depressing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I saved the surface map from that event. One of the few storms that had a frozen ground before the storm which allowed for higher accumulations. This makes me sick to my stomach. Just one event like this a winter would solve a lot of grief here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Rolaids. And just for laughs .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Just saw this post in the pattern discussion thread. It's going to be a step down process, just like last cold shot. Starts out west and progresses east, after a few cutters, we will be in the sweet spot! Hmm. Step down. Haven't I seen that before? I was somewhat discourage the other day because I couldn't see a medium term step down to a better pattern. Now, there seems to be building support for such a change, so I'm less restless about it now. Yeah that is good support! Lol. This whole system is going to be fun to watch. Really going to be a very chilly week. The big pattern change coming looks good from around the 20th on. A nice step down pattern would be nice around Christmas. Yeah the pattern is going to be headed in the right direction at least. Don S had a great post yesterday about the upcoming pattern change and step down process. Even if it ends up not real cold for the last week of Dec. in the SE (hard call right now): as long as it is somewhat colder than normal (high odds of that), the Cohen analogs as well as 1939-40 will be pretty much on track and would suggest a quite cold January since they're suggesting a step down pattern. So, we continue to look good and I'm as pumped as ever for the winter as a whole. It's showing a step down pattern which it did yesterday dumping in the west first. Keeps going back and forth between solutions. Does not mean a hill of beans as we see the GFS can't even get a 5-7 day storm right much less a pattern changef I think we are looking at a couple of weeks in out neck of the woods. Looks very step downish... Could be a quick step down deal though. Patience my friends, we're seeing a step down process right now. I think come the first week of January we'll all be happy. Need to endure a few cutters to help jump start the pattern to a colder one. I knew I'd heard that term at least once before. Must be baby steps. I guess I'm just not much of one for a step down pattern. To me, step down patterns just burn time and you get little in return. Indeed. Actually, step down, can quickly turn into, beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Rolaids. And just for laughs .... 610temp.new.gif Honestly, WTF, is it July already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 We have to rationalize why the trough drops down the west coast, while we wait and nitpick every model run until it shows the trough in the East. Stepdown, basically means and is code for , we are screwed the next ten days! But we dare to dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 We have to rationalize why the trough drops down the west coast, while we wait and nitpick every model run until it shows the trough in the East. Stepdown, basically means and is code for , we are screwed the next ten days! But we dare to dream! Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Rolaids. And just for laughs .... 610temp.new.gif Those always verify 100%! That map looked like that 3 days before we went below freezing for about 36 hours straight. Thanks for sharing though, anyway you can throw a warm situation into the mix is always welcome and amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 This makes me sick to my stomach. Just one event like this a winter would solve a lot of grief here. No doubt. If we get a storm with even half the amount we had in 2011 that would ease a bunch of frustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.