Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Welp I don't think north ga folks cashes in one either of these storms! But pulling for you Carolina folks! Yeah, these marginals almost NEVER work out for you and me. It'll either be one of those that get's down to about the triad, or gets down to about the Gaffney, Union area if the CAD is stronger. I don't think it will even be close for western upstate, NEGA. I keep seeing people write that the CADs are usually not progged strong enough. But over the years I have seen just the opposite. I can remember lots of tiimes we were supposed to get ice but ended up all rain due to CAD being weaker with warmer temps, than I can remember times we were on the border and ended up colder getting ice. At least that is my observation from the western upstate area. I think NC generally does much better though in these setups. Look no further than last March for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Yeah, these marginals almost NEVER work out for you and me. It'll either be one of those that get's down to about the triad, or gets down to about the Gaffney, Union area if the CAD is stronger. I don't think it will even be close for western upstate, NEGA. I keep seeing people write that the CADs are usually not progged strong enough. But over the years I have seen just the opposite. I can remember lots of tiimes we were supposed to get ice but ended up all rain due to CAD being weaker with warmer temps, than I can remember times we were on the border and ended up colder getting ice. At least that is my observation from the western upstate area. I think NC generally does much better though in these setups. Look no further than last March for example. Yep. You are right. My cad experiences over the years are extremely depressing cold rains. We will see though. We are extremely close. We can only hope for good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 "We send it to Ollie Williams for his forecast for nega, Ollie!" "ITS GONN RAIN" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'm all in for the 15/16, am I concerned that there is no cold air around, not one bit! I going to church tomorrow , with purpose, and The King is about to bring a weenie run at 12z, word!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What happened to a "medium range discussion" thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'm all in for the 15/16, am I concerned that there is no cold air around, not one bit! I going to church tomorrow , with purpose, and The King is about to bring a weenie run at 12z, word!! Dynamics and magical unicorns with rainbows will surely change us over to snow if it's strong enough! Rates will overcome all!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The SE forum this week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What happened to a "medium range discussion" thread? My take fwiw: The ZR thread is for a high enough threat that is satisfying the five day rule. The 1/15-6 thread is borderline I guess though 1/15 is just within 5 days. So, they were able to skip over the more general as yet to be created medium range pbp thread. I guess someone (myself?) needs to start the medium range pbp thread. We can see how it goes. If it is a disaster, I guess we scrap it. Start it after the 12Z Euro is done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What happened to a "medium range discussion" thread?That thread starts on March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 My take fwiw: The ZR thread is for a high enough threat that is satisfying the five day rule. The 1/15-6 thread is borderline I guess though 1/15 is just within 5 days. So, they were able to skip over the more general as yet to be created medium range pbp thread. I guess someone (myself?) needs to start the medium range pbp thread. We can see how it goes. If it is a disaster, I guess we scrap it. Start it after the 12Z Euro is done? I can understand the zr thread. The other thread should have been in a med range thread until the low in the lakes disappears and it starts to become more than a rainstorm for everyone That thread starts on March 1st. This is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 For us, that part would be what we already have had for awhile: storm specific threads based on the five day rule. The change/compromise as I understand it would be that sort of an interim step of a pbp thread for specific storm potential that has begun to get a lot of attention but isn't within 5 days yet. Maybe that could be for something like 6-10 days out or whatever. For, say, 10+ days, any reference to a specific model solution could remain in the pattern thread or even be in banter. You are basically correct. However, the addition if an interim pbp thread can discuss potential until 3 or so days before a potential storm. At that point a specific storm thread could be started when we would have a much better chance of actually having one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 You are basically correct. However, the addition if an interim pbp thread can discuss potential until 3 or so days before a potential storm. At that point a specific storm thread could be started when we would have a much better chance of actually having one. Ok, I could change the pbp thread to cover all of the way to within three days or so instead of five. Other opinions? Sound ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Ok, I could change the pbp thread to cover all of the way to within three days or so instead of five. Other opinions? Sound ok? Don't do anything yet. I'd like an evening to go by to get more opinions. EDIT: I see I was too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Don't do anything yet. I'd like an evening to go by to get more opinions. EDIT: I see I was too late. You could lock that pbp thread for now before it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 You could lock that pbp thread for now before it gets going. Lets run with it but I will be making some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 #SEstormthreadgate2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 CR/Mack, Are the "Ouch" and "Wow" posts referring to a dislike for the new thread experiment or because this winter continues to suck bigtime for now outside of the recent cold? If the former, this may not go too well with the masses lol. I say at least give it a week or so. Fair enough? After all, there were a good number complaining about the mixing of storm pbp and actual pattern related posts (in addition to myself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Clusterfook of threads IMO. The way we had it before was fine. Good posts are going to get lost now. So instead of reading a page or two of posts we have to sift through 3 threads? I don't see how that is helpful. Jmo. What's wrong with a five day rule on individual storms and keeping a med-lomg rang discussion thread like we have for YEARS? What changed this year to cause all of the dischord about threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Clusterfook of threads IMO. The way we had it before was fine. Good posts are going to get lost now. So instead of reading a page or two of posts we have to sift through 3 threads? I don't see how that is helpful. Jmo. What's wrong with a five day rule on individual storms and keeping a med-lomg rang discussion thread like we have for YEARS? What changed this year to cause all of the dischord about threads? All because Brick created a thread and he was pissed that it got deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 All because Brick created a thread and he was pissed that it got deleted. Pretty much... Oh well I don't envy the mods. My opinion though, if it isn't broken don't try and fix it. And people are trying to fix something that isn't broken. Baby being thrown out with the bath water. I get people wanting to improve our reading experience but I think it has convoluted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 CR/Mack, Are the "Ouch" and "Wow" posts referring to a dislike for the new thread experiment or because this winter continues to suck bigtime for now outside of the recent cold? If the former, this may not go too well with the masses lol. I say at least give it a week or so. Fair enough? After all, there were a good number complaining about the mixing of storm pbp and actual pattern related posts (in addition to myself). I was just wondering where Wow was. Hadn't seen him post in a long time. Then wham! There he was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Clusterfook of threads IMO. The way we had it before was fine. Good posts are going to get lost now. So instead of reading a page or two of posts we have to sift through 3 threads? I don't see how that is helpful. Jmo. What's wrong with a five day rule on individual storms and keeping a med-lomg rang discussion thread like we have for YEARS? What changed this year to cause all of the dischord about threads? It seems pretty straightforward to me. If you're more into long range, your info will be concisely presented in the pattern thread. If you are interested in a possible upcoming event and model play by play, it will be in that thread. When an event is imminent, a separate event thread will be stated. In any case, we are going to give it a try. After 2 weeks or so we can either fine tune it or go back to the way it was. Nothing will be lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 CR/Mack, Are the "Ouch" and "Wow" posts referring to a dislike for the new thread experiment or because this winter continues to suck bigtime for now outside of the recent cold? If the former, this may not go too well with the masses lol. I say at least give it a week or so. Fair enough? After all, there were a good number complaining about the mixing of storm pbp and actual pattern related posts (in addition to myself). I was really just playing around. There was one thread when I woke up this morning and now there are 4. Like Burns said, we can make this work just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It seems pretty straightforward to me. If you're more into long range, your info will be concisely presented in the pattern thread. If you are interested in a possible upcoming event and model play by play, it will be in that thread. When an event is imminent, a separate event thread will be stated. In any case, we are going to give it a try. After 2 weeks or so we can either fine tune it or go back to the way it was. Nothing will be lost. Yeah I like this idea. Before with the PBP in the pattern thread and people not referencing hours at all it was impossible to know what storm they were talking about unless you could get the context. I personally favor the pattern thread being about patterns and not specific events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Blah blah is all i see on hear anymore be happy we got our cold!!! lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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