jburns Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The pattern thread here is a combo of some true pattern discussion buried within a bunch of potential event discussion posts for potential within the next 5-6 days. Another bb a number here frequent has several separate threads for potential events and, as a result, its pattern disc. is pretty much pure pattern disc. What's wrong with doing it that way here? Opinions? IMO, there should at least be a potential events catchall thread to cover those being actively discussed until if/when separate event threads are created. GO to the New England forum. Read the Thread Layouts thread and give me your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GO to the New England forum. Read the Thread Layouts thread and give me your opinion. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45261-thread-layouts/ Looks like a pretty good compromise to me. I would support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GO to the New England forum. Read the Thread Layouts thread and give me your opinion. Saw the comment about discussion actually being worse because people just drop in for model runs and leave. But living in the south we constantly have to look for a good pattern. So I would support. Even though my opinion doesn't matter. I've been a long time reader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GO to the New England forum. Read the Thread Layouts thread and give me your opinion.Interesting. I think that some of what they've done should at least be considered if a good number of people here would like to at least give it a try. Model pbp is an interesting idea for its own thread to cover individual potential storms and maybe Arctic outbreaks until if/when they get their own threads. Of course, model pbp well out in the runs could also overlap with pattern disc. Otherwise, that sort of sounds like the potential event catchall idea if I understand it correctly. Nothing will ever be perfect and there will always be overlap as well as straying at times. But I'm glad NE is trying this as it gives us a model to consider experimenting with to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 +1. Hard to keep up with events and pattern in same thread. Not really a good mixture. I've started to noticed that lately with some of long range pattern posts getting lost in middle of a discussion about a storm that's likely not occurring at all 5 days away. After reading what was posted over at New England subforum, I like their idea a lot, as it'll make discussions on one subject much easier to follow. I think we should at least give it a try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I've started to noticed that lately with some of long range pattern posts getting lost in middle of a discussion about a storm that's likely not occurring at all 5 days away. After reading what was posted over at New England subforum, I like their idea a lot, as it'll make discussions on one subject much easier to follow. I think we should at least give it a try. Yep. And these pattern posts are very well thought out and researched. They shouldn't be overlooked. They are very helpful posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 At this point, I'm glad I am heading back to Asheville this Sunday so it's easier to get snow on ground. What a frustrating past few weeks weather-wise in Eastern NC, but I'm also glad I had some action in WNC back in November. We'll see what we got left in tank for the rest of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Well....it looks like a week of 40 and rain on Monday, 33 and rain on Wednesday and 36 and rain on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Well....it looks like a week of 40 and rain on Monday, 33 and rain on Wednesday and 36 and rain on Friday In otherwords... Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Is anyone ill-informed of the upcoming pattern because they missed a critical post in the pattern thread because of the model pbp? Just curious. I haven't, but I've been on here maybe more than some, so I've been able to keep up with it. The NE approach is fine with me, though some data does overlap between the model and pattern threads. That's ok though. Whatever everyone wants to do will work for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 In otherwords... Winter. Lol that is the truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I think a "short-range model discussion" thread to discuss specific threats would suffice...then if you want to post long range model images you'd do that in the pattern thread, would help with overlap. But I agree with some on here I would rather the posts be separated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 In otherwords... Winter. Indeed Is anyone ill-informed of the upcoming pattern because they missed a critical post in the pattern thread because of the model pbp? Just curious. I haven't, but I've been on here maybe more than some, so I've been able to keep up with it. The NE approach is fine with me, though some data does overlap between the model and pattern threads. That's ok though. Whatever everyone wants to do will work for me. Nope I wouldn't mind the NE approach, but I honestly don't see the reason for it(the several threads). We make threads when it's necessary, but this winter it (unfortunately)hasn't been necessary. Comparing amwx to another board not even 1/4 of the size of this one doesn't even make sense.....sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I think a "short-range model discussion" thread to discuss specific threats would suffice...then if you want to post long range model images you'd do that in the pattern thread, would help with overlap. But I agree with some on here I would rather the posts be separated. That seems like a good compromise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Is anyone ill-informed of the upcoming pattern because they missed a critical post in the pattern thread because of the model pbp? Just curious. I haven't, but I've been on here maybe more than some, so I've been able to keep up with it. The NE approach is fine with me, though some data does overlap between the model and pattern threads. That's ok though. Whatever everyone wants to do will work for me. I've been Ill-informed since October !! I was told it was going to be a cold and snowy winter! Unless you count Wednesdays blockbuster, no threats through the end of 6z GFS ! Feb will be famous, fabulous, or forgettable ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 As I thought, my outside temp this morning is fairly accurate, based on surrounding temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I've been Ill-informed since October !! I was told it was going to be a cold and snowy winter! Unless you count Wednesdays blockbuster, no threats through the end of 6z GFS ! Feb will be famous, fabulous, or forgettable ??? You'll never forget how bad it turns out, so you can go ahead and scratch that one off the list now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I wouldn't mind the NE approach, but I honestly don't see the reason for it(the several threads). We make threads when it's necessary, but this winter it (unfortunately)hasn't been necessary. Comparing amwx to another board not even 1/4 of the size of this one doesn't even make sense.....sighMichelle, The point is that this forum is bigger than that other one and yet this one puts so much more into the general pattern thread. Even though that one is a good bit smaller, it even often separates things out more from its pattern thread. Also, size isn't everything. Just because it is smaller doesn't necessarily mean that their way of doing things is not as good. I think that one extra thread would be a good compromise as others are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 There are alot of mini "threats" this week, so it gets a little confusing. I think there is a Sun/Mon, A Wed, And Thursday possibility?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Michelle, The point is that this forum is bigger than that other one and yet this one puts so much more into the general pattern thread. Even though that one is a good bit smaller, it even often separates things out more from its pattern thread. Also, size isn't everything. Just because it is smaller doesn't necessarily mean that their way of doing things is not as good. I think that one extra thread would be a good compromise as others are saying. A medium range discussion I don't have a problem with although I honestly don't think it's needed. The winter discussion thread has always worked well until a threat becomes within grasping distance. I mean....what's really the difference between the discussion thread and a med range discussion thread? One would discuss things months in advance while the other would discuss things 14+ days out? It just seems kind of redundant to me, especially since there is absolutely nothing on the horizon. Just my .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 A medium range discussion I don't have a problem with although I honestly don't think it's needed. The winter discussion thread has always worked well until a threat becomes within grasping distance. I mean....what's really the difference between the discussion thread and a med range discussion thread? One would discuss things months in advance while the other would discuss things 14+ days out? It just seems kind of redundant to me, especially since there is absolutely nothing on the horizon. Just my .02 I was thinking the extra thread would be more for, say, days 5-7 or whatever for specific threats that keep showing up as well as generate lots of posts. I'm not talking about, say, a more vague suggestion of a threat for, say, day 10 that's not dominating discussion. That would still seem more pattern discussion material or even banter. Once within 5 days, the 5 day rule takes over and a storm threat specific thread can take over IF the threat is high enough. If not, that can continue to be discussed in that extra thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The amount of pbp going on in the pattern thread for the 15th is enough for it's own thread. Whether or not people have superstitions starting a thread too early is their own issue, but it obviously has enough disco to get started...and like I said when this system first showed up 240+ hours out on the ensembles it was a pretty strong signal, so this system isn't going away and it wouldn't hurt to start a thread even if we get rain...a lot is involved in the system so people are going to continue to do pbp 4x daily for the GFS, 2x daily for the Euro, and talk about the means from now until the 15th, then when the NAM gets in range forget it. My 0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 The amount of pbp going on in the pattern thread for the 15th is enough for it's own thread. Whether or not people have superstitions starting a thread too early is their own issue, but it obviously has enough disco to get started...and like I said when this system first showed up 240+ hours out on the ensembles it was a pretty strong signal, so this system isn't going away and it wouldn't hurt to start a thread even if we get rain...a lot is involved in the system so people are going to continue to do pbp 4x daily for the GFS, 2x daily for the Euro, and talk about the means from now until the 15th, then when the NAM gets in range forget it. My 0.02Great post! Also, y'all check out GSP forcast discussion from this AM. Best I can decipher, it's going to be some kind of wintry precip , if anything , for the Wed night / Thurs morning. Sounds very positive , if you want something other than rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'm in 10 days if a better pattern doesn't start showing up!I'm out guys. :cliff: Good luck with the freezing rain or 33 and rain threat. Texas has had a great winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Unless someone has a strong objection, why don't we give it a shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Interesting. I think that some of what they've done should at least be considered if a good number of people here would like to at least give it a try. Model pbp is an interesting idea for its own thread to cover individual potential storms and maybe Arctic outbreaks until if/when they get their own threads. Of course, model pbp well out in the runs could also overlap with pattern disc. Otherwise, that sort of sounds like the potential event catchall idea if I understand it correctly. Nothing will ever be perfect and there will always be overlap as well as straying at times. But I'm glad NE is trying this as it gives us a model to consider experimenting with to some extent. Before we even think about trying this, I want to make sure there is no 'selective reading' going on. Note the third item. 3. As we get closer in, say by Day 3 to 4, we can have a Storm Specific Thread(s). This would include Model Analysis with Q&A and just general discussion about the potential storm. You can re-post the same information from the Models Thread if you want. There will be some redundancies as threats materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Welp I don't think north ga folks cashes in one either of these storms! But pulling for you Carolina folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Before we even think about trying this, I want to make sure there is no 'selective reading' going on. Note the third item. 3. As we get closer in, say by Day 3 to 4, we can have a Storm Specific Thread(s). This would include Model Analysis with Q&A and just general discussion about the potential storm. You can re-post the same information from the Models Thread if you want. There will be some redundancies as threats materialize. For us, that part would be what we already have had for awhile: storm specific threads based on the five day rule. The change/compromise as I understand it would be that sort of an interim step of a pbp thread for specific storm potential that has begun to get a lot of attention but isn't within 5 days yet. Maybe that could be for something like 6-10 days out or whatever. For, say, 10+ days, any reference to a specific model solution could remain in the pattern thread or even be in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 For us, that part would be what we already have had for awhile: storm specific threads based on the five day rule. The change/compromise as I understand it would be that sort of an interim step of a pbp thread for specific storm potential that has begun to get a lot of attention but isn't within 5 days yet. That's what I mean by selective reading. lol Neither 3 nor 4 equals 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 That's what I mean by selective reading. lol Neither 3 nor 4 equals 5. Oh ok. Well, you've been using a 5 day rule. Why not continue that IF the storm threat is high enough? We don't have to wait for 4 days just because NE does, of course. It is a similar idea, regardless, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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