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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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Why can't I quote anyone or post in the thread I started?  I assume it's something I've clicked on or something, can someone help me with this? It's only like the second or third thread I've ever started, so I probably have blocked myself from posting in it?????

 

 Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread III

Still can't figure it out, If I ignored myself or what? I don't see an ignore button anywhere? :poster_stupid:  

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Jammin' January back on?

Actually it has 25"+ in NC for the total...RDU with 20" and half of that falls through days 29-35 so sounds like a OK last half of Jan and SUPER FAB FEB coming. :lmao: That is, if the CFS is a crystal ball.

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Next week looks really cold and dry. Pointless to have it that cold and no snow. Every time we get bitter cold like that it is always dry. We need the cold to back off a little just when a wet system is coming in. 

Hopefully something will start to happen after the middle of the month. But we can't believe the models past 5 days now,  and it is getting so everything mets thought they knew would give us a good winter is wrong. 

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Next week looks really cold and dry. Pointless to have it that cold and no snow. Every time we get bitter cold like that it is always dry. We need the cold to back off a little just when a wet system is coming in.

Hopefully something will start to happen after the middle of the month. But we can't believe the models past 5 days now, and it is getting so everything mets thought they knew would give us a good winter is wrong.

10/10 would read again.
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Next week looks really cold and dry. Pointless to have it that cold and no snow. Every time we get bitter cold like that it is always dry. We need the cold to back off a little just when a wet system is coming in.

Hopefully something will start to happen after the middle of the month. But we can't believe the models past 5 days now, and it is getting so everything mets thought they knew would give us a good winter is wrong.

You are slowly becoming a pessimist!

FWIW, you got to have the cold first. Its not really pointless. A SW will come out of nowhere and produce some precipitation. :lol:

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You are slowly becoming a pessimist!

FWIW, you got to have the cold first. Its not really pointless. A SW will come out of nowhere and produce some precipitation. :lol:

 

Bitter cold in the teens and single digits is pointless without snow to go with it. Like I said, maybe when it relaxes a little but it still cold enough for snow at the same time a wet system comes through. But it usually doesn't happen like that here. We get most of our snow when the temps stay in the high 20s.

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I like to look at it from this positive spin, there is 2/3 winter left! :)

 

True.  But looking ahead, we don't look to get anything significant during our prime snow retention period.  It doesn't take many weeks for the days to lengthen enough to make a difference.  That's why March, despite having just a bit more snowfall than December, probably has fewer days overall with any snowcover. It disappears in a hurry under a March sun ,that is up the same amount of time as it is in Sept.

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So JB says again today that the next 3 out of 5 winters will be warm in the central/east and we should enjoy this winter and the past couple.  All of this is based on his belief that pac will completely flip.  Based on this year most likely winding up well below climo that would put us 3 out of the past 4 years as well below climo and then add in the next 3 out of 5 years being warm we could be looking at another repeat of the 90's.  Hypothetically if he is correct that would make 10 out of a 15 year stretch that would be well below climo. 

lol at this since you know he has been so amazingly right this year :arrowhead: I can't believe he expects anyone to take him seriously.

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Bitter cold in the teens and single digits is pointless without snow to go with it. Like I said, maybe when it relaxes a little but it still cold enough for snow at the same time a wet system comes through. But it usually doesn't happen like that here. We get most of our snow when the temps stay in the high 20s.

Its not pointless if you like cold. And without the cold - you'll NEVER have snow.  :axe: 

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Btw, speaking of cold and snow in unusual places. The desert southwest is not the only place there has been some impressive cold over the sahara desert and even elevation snow in northern africa. That cold snap is just now easing up but the gfs and euro are showing another one except further east, this time for lybia, egypt and saudi arabia the last few runs.  Check out the 850mb temps on the 18z gfs. That is like 0c 850mb temps making it to the latitude of cuba.

 

article about some recent snow.

 

http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/news/world/47963/snow_blankets_sicily_and_northern_africa#.VKYa-4ZWr3Upost-12-0-70568700-1420172403_thumb.gif

 

 

 

 

I think it was colder prior to today but 2nd image is from last nights 06z initial temps for this last cold snap. Freezing temps in deserts is nothing new but this is some pretty  cold air for so far south with freezing temps into northern chad and niger.

 

 

 

post-12-0-85852200-1420172938_thumb.gif

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