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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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Not many people thought this would be the case I dont think

Not even most Mets, thought it would be like this. Barring a miracle in the next 5 weeks, I think this will go down as the biggest bust ever (seasonal) for a lot of forecasters! All these gulf lows, and all that cold just to our north and can't time one single storm for wintry weather!!! #unreal

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Not even most Mets, thought it would be like this. Barring a miracle in the next 5 weeks, I think this will go down as the biggest bust ever (seasonal) for a lot of forecasters! All these gulf lows, and all that cold just to our north and can't time one single storm for wintry weather!!! #unreal

And it all comes down to lack of blocking right ?

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And it all comes down to lack of blocking right ?

Lack of blocking and a fast Pac flow. I don't know historically what a PNA ridge should look like with such a big +PDO. But this year, it really has not been the right shape or amplitude to spark a big storm. It seems it's either short and rounded or tilted forward, leading to troughing out west. We can't get any waves to dig. Maybe that's the result of the lack of blocking or maybe it has more to do with the fast flow...or both. But without blocking, we need the ridge to be taller and sharper and not too far east and not too far west. Terrible, terrible winter.

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Lack of blocking and a fast Pac flow. I don't know historically what a PNA ridge should look like with such a big +PDO. But this year, it really has not been the right shape or amplitude to spark a big storm. It seems it's either short and rounded or tilted forward, leading to troughing out west. We can't get any waves to dig. Maybe that's the result of the lack of blocking or maybe it has more to do with the fast flow...or both. But without blocking, we need the ridge to be taller and sharper and not too far east and not too far west. Terrible, terrible winter.

Good Post. Very good assessment of how this winter as played out IMHO. I personally would not label it as terrible. I have experienced many winters in GA that were much warmer and much drier. We have had some cold and we have had precip. Just not really close to getting them together. Based on the expectations coming in, it has been a disappointment.

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Good Post. Very good assessment of how this winter as played out IMHO. I personally would not label it as terrible. I have experienced many winters in GA that were much warmer and much drier. We have had some cold and we have had precip. Just not really close to getting them together. Based on the expectations coming in, it has been a disappointment.

The expectations is why this winter is viewed as so terrible. Had this winter been forecast to be just a normal winter, then people wouldn't view it as being terrible. Well, maybe they still would, but it wouldn't be as terrible.

I think at this point people are just ready for winter to be over with so we can move on and completely forget about this winter. 

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Snowstorm, if there are any strong winds at all with that amount of snow, you'll most likely run into travel bans. Open farm land, heavy snow and string winds = near blizzard conditions and just about zero visibility. It's a whole other animal up here when you throw wind into the equation with moderate to heavy snow. I'll be either here on the west end of 70 in Terre Haute or down in Bloomington during the storm. Expecting I'll see 4-6" either place, hoping I can at least get out of the hotel and work (I drive around all day so roads have to be passable).

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The expectations is why this winter is viewed as so terrible. Had this winter been forecast to be just a normal winter, then people wouldn't view it as being terrible. Well, maybe they still would, but it wouldn't be as terrible.

I think at this point people are just ready for winter to be over with so we can move on and completely forget about this winter. 

Here! Here! The expectations are the problem. I abandoned the long range forecasters in December. I'm only expecting typical southern winter weather = rain and highs in the 40's then sunny cold briefly and then back to 58 to 63 degrees for afternoon highs, slowly warming into the 70's by first week in March. I'm expecting a quick warm up this spring, though. Hoping that the -NAO comes back this summer to help kill the heat some.

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The models have been hinting at storms for next week, especially next weekend, for a while now. The way they have been so inconsistent and changing from run to run, though, it's too far out to tell if it will be just rain or something wintry. The safe bet is rain based on how the winter has been so far.

Indeed... Cold Rain. The models have been doing the same exact thing since November.

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Snowstorm, if there are any strong winds at all with that amount of snow, you'll most likely run into travel bans. Open farm land, heavy snow and string winds = near blizzard conditions and just about zero visibility. It's a whole other animal up here when you throw wind into the equation with moderate to heavy snow. I'll be either here on the west end of 70 in Terre Haute or down in Bloomington during the storm. Expecting I'll see 4-6" either place, hoping I can at least get out of the hotel and work (I drive around all day so roads have to be passable).

Well, I was hoping to wait until a couple days after the storm to leave. Say around Wednesday. Hopefully by then the roads would be in better shape ?

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Here! Here! The expectations are the problem. I abandoned the long range forecasters in December. I'm only expecting typical southern winter weather = rain and highs in the 40's then sunny cold briefly and then back to 58 to 63 degrees for afternoon highs, slowly warming into the 70's by first week in March. I'm expecting a quick warm up this spring, though. Hoping that the -NAO comes back this summer to help kill the heat some.

I'm going to do my best to go into every winter from now on with the expectation that it will be a normal winter. It's hard not to buy into the hype though. I certainly bought into it, but hopefully i've learned my lesson. I say this now, but i'm sure when Oct/Nov rolls around again and they are calling for a cold/snowy winter I will buy into it again. I'm just dumb.

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Expectations might be part of the reason, but even if this was expected to be a normal winter it would still be a huge disappointment so far. The winter forecasts headed into winter are certainly a huge bust and will probably never be believed again. However, even without those we still sit at below average so far for snow and have had only a trace around here at the most. This winter has been a huge failure so far. 

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Good Post. Very good assessment of how this winter as played out IMHO. I personally would not label it as terrible. I have experienced many winters in GA that were much warmer and much drier. We have had some cold and we have had precip. Just not really close to getting them together. Based on the expectations coming in, it has been a disappointment.

Thanks! I agree with you in that there have been warmer winters for sure. Terrible is in the eye of the beholder, but I certainly see your point of view. I like the fact that it hasn't torched front to back. But the thing that makes it terrible for me is I don't recall going through an entire winter with not even getting an advisory level event. I've only seen a couple of snow flurries and a few sleet pellets. That's just awful. At least in the bad winters of the past, we've gotten one or two minor, token events. This year has provided nothing, for basically the entire area outside of the mountains. It's very frustrating.

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Thanks! I agree with you in that there have been warmer winters for sure. Terrible is in the eye of the beholder, but I certainly see your point of view. I like the fact that it hasn't torched front to back. But the thing that makes it terrible for me is I don't recall going through an entire winter with not even getting an advisory level event. I've only seen a couple of snow flurries and a few sleet pellets. That's just awful. At least in the bad winters of the past, we've gotten one or two minor, token events. This year has provided nothing, for basically the entire area outside of the mountains. It's very frustrating.

 

LOL, a few days ago we were watching this as a potential event, it's only going to miss us by a 1000 miles.  Shows how ridiculous it is to even entertain a winter even down here when a models shows it day 5+.

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I'm ready for spring. A nice warm spring if we can please. This winter has been average around here. The lack of snow is frustrating but its winter in the SE so i'm not surprised. 

 

I'm getting married March 28th in what is suppose to be an outside wedding right on the banks of the pamlico sound. I need temps of at least 68 or better with no real breeze to speak of.

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Expectations might be part of the reason, but even if this was expected to be a normal winter it would still be a huge disappointment so far. The winter forecasts headed into winter are certainly a huge bust and will probably never be believed again. However, even without those we still sit at below average so far for snow and have had only a trace around here at the most. This winter has been a huge failure so far. 

Maybe if we went into every winter expecting a horrible winter with no snow and warm temps then we would never be disappointed 

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Yeah, I think the fact that we have had so much precip around makes it even more frustrating. So many days of rain and temps in the 40s. It's been wet enough, just not cold enough when we have the precip. And the really cold shots have been few and lasted only a couple of days.

 

I don't mind the cloudy, rainy days. Wish they were snow, though. 

LOL, a few days ago we were watching this as a potential event, it's only going to miss us by a 1000 miles.  Shows how ridiculous it is to even entertain a winter even down here when a models shows it day 5+.

Yeah, I know it. I saved your map the other day that showed me getting over 30" of snow. That's one of the best I've ever seen. :)

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As mentioned, everyone has their own personal grading scale. So far I give this winter a D. If it were significantly colder and still without any winter precip it would be an F. A wall to wall torch gets a C from me, because you can get out and do enjoyable things without freezing your butt off. Grades of A & B are reserved for those winters where the snow flies, and more than once.

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I'm ready for spring. A nice warm spring if we can please. This winter has been average around here. The lack of snow is frustrating but its winter in the SE so i'm not surprised. 

 

I'm getting married March 28th in what is suppose to be an outside wedding right on the banks of the pamlico sound. I need temps of at least 68 or better with no real breeze to speak of.

Personally, I'm hoping for a March 2012 repeat.

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As mentioned, everyone has their own personal grading scale. So far I give this winter a D. If it were significantly colder and still without any winter precip it would be an F. A wall to wall torch gets a C from me, because you can get out and do enjoyable things without freezing your butt off. Grades of A & B are reserved for those winters where the snow flies, and more than once.

 

I give it a D-, the wet winter with the cool shots is just about as bad as it gets.  Cold/dry would be an F for me.  I would give a warm/dry winter a B as it would be much more enjoyable to be outside more.

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