Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 How's the ifcasting working out so far? Pretty well. But got to get the cutter out of the way first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I will say, if it was I would have never have guessed we would get shutout with the a +ENSO/+PDO, below is the +ENSO/+PDO winters, only 2005 was a shutout and that was only because we just missed every which way that year, not because lack of chances. It's a shame to think what a waste of a good +PDO/+ENSO we had this year. I really hope the pac flips next year because all the +PDO has done this year is bring us cool/damp all winter. Pack, I'm honestly not sure we've had a +ENSO this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Thank God most of us don't have jobs in the meteorology field. Lets put it that way. Pretty well. But got to get the cutter out of the way first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm all in on the Super Bowl thunderstorms then back end snow! That works out 100% of never! Snowstorm will get his yearly avg out of that! #FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Pack, I'm honestly not sure we've had a +ENSO this year. I agree, the SST's were warm but didn't help drive any kind of typical +ENSO pattern. Just a waste. Really if we would have had blocking this winter we would have been golden, IMO. Thats the one thing that failed that couldn't fail. That's why you our 30 year down cycle the way it is, we are much more dependent on blocking that the MA and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 College baseball kicks off 2/13 which is 17 days away... Only 31 more days till March 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm all in on the Super Bowl thunderstorms then back end snow! That works out 100% of never! Snowstorm will get his yearly avg out of that! #FAIL I saw on the 00z GFS output that ATL had thundersnow.. 0.15 worth. I hope that works out for some to my North and West because nothing else looks good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Do we get any solace from JB's winter forecast busting, although the MA to the NE will verify for temps/snow as it should be cold for them for Feb. Unfortunately I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 CR, how bout laying some of those funky gifs down on some pictures of the next three cold rain storms coming next week!? Tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I feel like I keep reading the same pages in the mid range thread...our best shot this winter is 10 days out, we get to about 4/5 days out and it's, we knew that one wasn't going to work but the day 10 threat really has my attention. Come on, I'd love to be optimistic but do some of you not listen to yourselves?! I'm not betting against the streak until the winter storm is actually producing. Screw this winter and the lying models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think I just got past the denial stage of this Winter not being good at all. This wouldn't have been such a bad process to accept the fail if everyone and their mothers and their analogs and their whatever else weren't so blown out of proportion. It's our own fault for believing anyone actually has a clue about long range forecasting. I'm all for trying, and it's fun to read about. But it's little better than throwing darts, unless you have a strong ENSO signal. I do appreciate all the effort and work that goes into them though. The thing is it wasn't just a couple of mets calling for above normal snowfall for here this winter. It was a huge consensus based what we had headed into this winter and what has given us a lot of snow in the past. Now it seems everything they thought they knew would give us a big winter is wrong. I don't know if things just didn't happen with the pattern that they thought would happen, or things have just been off with our climate. And if things didn't happen with the pattern as expected, why didn't it, and why did so many think it would? Something was way off, though, and it is bizarre and a huge bust. It appears we have no idea what winter is going to be like, and it is all just up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 CR, how bout laying some of those funky gifs down on some pictures of the next three cold rain storms coming next week!? Tia Got a dentist appointment this morning, so it's throwing me off today. Hopefully, I'll have time around 11ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Little known fact, I have my own umpiring business providing umps to local rec leagues. I sent an email out Sunday planning the on field clinics to be in February this year. The way Saturdays have been in GA the last two weekends, you would think it was April. Why change that thinking now. What completely sucks about this winter is not that it didn't produce snow. What sucks is the potential it had looking at it in October and how it performed. That is what sucks. If the signals had been there for a warm winter we would have all just thought... well... its what we expected. But, just like the stock market: "Past performance is not a guarantee on the future." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The thing is it wasn't just a couple of mets calling for above normal snowfall for here this winter. It was a huge consensus based what we had headed into this winter and what has given us a lot of snow in the past. Now it seems everything they thought they knew would give us a big winter is wrong. I don't know if things just didn't happen with the pattern that they thought would happen, or things have just been off with our climate. And if things didn't happen with the pattern as expected, why didn't it, and why did so many think it would? Something was way off, though, and it is bizarre and a huge bust. It appears we have no idea what winter is going to be like, and it is all just up in the air. We don't know. That's the answer. I admire the effort and the diligence put into it, though. Everything failed this winter so far: SAI OPI Nino PDO SCE Statistical analysis Analogs QBO Solar You name it. We have all of this historical data from which to make a forecast. We can go back and look at how it was and project how it should be. But it's the thing that we done know that blows up the whole projection. For example, suppose there are 10 historical instances of an expert dart thrower throwing a dart at a dartboard 20 yards away. He hits the bullseye 7 out of 10 times. That's a pretty good dataset. Now, we currently have a dartboard and the expert dart thrower. What chance would you give him of hitting the bullseye? That's pretty much how we derive winter forecasts. Unfortunately, we didn't take into account that this time, there is a cross-wind blowing at 30mph. And we didn't take into account the wind direction. And we didn't take into account that the dart thrower is sick. And we didn't take into account that his throwing arm is injured. And we didn't take into account that he was standing on a boat. And we didn't take into account that the boat was on the ocean. And we didn't take into account that it was raining. And we didn't take into account that it was night time. Result: Forecast fail. Winter fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 And we didn't take into account that it was raining. a very chilly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Little known fact, I have my own umpiring business providing umps to local rec leagues. I sent an email out Sunday planning the on field clinics to be in February this year. The way Saturdays have been in GA the last two weekends, you would think it was April. Why change that thinking now. What completely sucks about this winter is not that it didn't produce snow. What sucks is the potential it had looking at it in October and how it performed. That is what sucks. If the signals had been there for a warm winter we would have all just thought... well... its what we expected. But, just like the stock market: "Past performance is not a guarantee on the future." Is Dacula Park one of those by chance? I was President of Dacula Athletic Association twice, starting back in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Cold is there after the storm. We get a ton of qpf and drop below freezing after the storm rolls through. This winter is a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 CR solar did not fail. It was there but because the SAI looks so great most ignored the increase in solar storms which I think had a significant affect on blocking just like it did 3 years ago when we had a horrible winter. This will be the last year I give the SAI a lot of weight. The last two years the SAI has not been so hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is about the best looking day 16 on the GEFS...AK low, no blocking, PV over the pole, seasonal temps. Pre-emergent around valentines, soccer starts about 10 days later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 lol @ this met https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1111044592251932 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 lol @ this met https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1111044592251932 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I remember back around a week ago when the Euro was showing a major winter storm for the southeast this weekend. Man, those were the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I remember back around a week ago when the Euro was showing a major winter storm for the southeast this weekend. Man, those were the days. It gave us 11" just a couple nights ago. Don't even have to go back that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 lol @ this met https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1111044592251932 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 lol @ this met https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1111044592251932 Haha that's golden thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Every time I see this guy I think of Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 It gave us 11" just a couple nights ago. Don't even have to go back that long. That's the thing, you could have every major model with ensemble agreement showing a winter storm threat at day 6-7 and would you believe it? You know I wouldn't. I don't think we are going to have to worry about this scenario though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well, it's official: Google Fiber is coming to Atlanta, Nashville, Charlotte, and RDU. Grats people! Sadly they won't be coming north of the city. I'd guess the population density out here is just too low to support the cost of construction right now. I hope that changes someday as they continue to add customers. https://fiber.google.com/newcities/ Too bad Johnston County is still stuck in 20th century... heck, maybe even 19th century? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm so close to the cliff guys. It's the end of January. Why can't things look good inside 7 days for once this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I'm so close to the cliff guys. It's the end of January. Why can't things look good inside 7 days for once this year. No worries. ATL gets hit pretty hard per 12z GFS long range (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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