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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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This far out? It's inside 7 days. Whatever. If someone else had started it there would not be a problem.

Brick I think if you had waited until after the 12z GFS had verified and it was as optimistic as previous runs you would have gotten a little more slack. The GFS is not as juicy and warmer and the DOC isn't seeing it right now.

Just bad timing bro.

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I said this a few weeks back but theres some great people on hear appreciate all the time an effort you guys put in you know who u are but this a weather board not a members only club i know theres alot of die hard vets thats been here from day one congratulations ur still no better than the rest if you dont like what some people are posting then dont engage its truly that simple...

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I actually came on here to see if a thread had been started because Brad Panovich mentioned it in a Facebook post.  Brad is usually against mentioning a winter event in the Piedmont 5 days out, let alone 7.  But he did.  And because he did, it got me perked up a bit.  He said "confidence is low right now, but trending higher."  My feeling is that since he is seeing something that's worth mentioning now, then it's worth starting to talk about now.  If it does end up fizzling out, then chalk it up to another miscued event. I usually don't come on here to speak...more to observe.  I enjoy the cameraderie when a big storm is on the horizon. That's what I come here to read.  But when I see people on here jumping down each other's throats just because a thread was started a couple days earlier than the unwritten "Rule of 5 Days or Less" doesn't make for a pleasant experience on here. I won't leave because of it.  But I just felt I had to put in my two cents. 

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I didn't start it just to start a thread. I started it because we are inside 7 days and people were talking about it. East was talking about it. RAH mentioned it. I started it because it was a specific threat, and to keep it from the pattern discussion in the winter discussion thread. That's the reason I made it. 

 

I swear, it's ridiculous how strict some things are here. Some of you need to relax.

I said it seemed like you did. It's all good. I don't think anybody is mad about it.

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This far out? It's inside 7 days. Whatever. If someone else had started it there would not be a problem.

 

 

It's cool. I just won't start any threads anymore. I'll leave it up to the clique.

post-987-0-65817300-1420485428_thumb.png

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44185-hurricane-bertha/

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43985-hurricane-arthur/

Look at the first sentence in this thread:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42959-220-221-severe-storms-threat/

Which refers to this (situation look familiar?):

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42941-225-227-winter-storm-threat/

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42332-potential-severe-storms-for-sat-jan-11/

Shall I continue? Ok, allow me:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42186-potential-winter-storm-jan-3-4/

Yeah, NOBODY LIKES TO SEE BRICK START THREADS :rolleyes: (hint: read the first page of the above thread).

 

GSM.

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Guess you're out of the "in" crowd..

I think most people like Brick. He's made a lot of great posts this year, as has been noted many, many times. All of the lamenting about Brick not starting threads doesn't really have a strong foundation (see above and below).

Also, if there are only a few people in the "in" crowd and everyone else is in the "out" crowd, maybe the "in" crowd is actually the "out" crowd. :P

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DING DING DING.  Exactly what's wrong here.  If burger started it this conversation wouldn't be happening.  Now mods are deleting threads based on their personal preference.  Lovely site.

 

This in part is why I stopped donating to this site.  Heavy-handed and inconsistent moderating depending on particular cliques.  It's like virtual junior high.

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I said this a few weeks back but theres some great people on hear appreciate all the time an effort you guys put in you know who u are but this a weather board not a members only club i know theres alot of die hard vets thats been here from day one congratulations ur still no better than the rest if you dont like what some people are posting then dont engage its truly that simple...

 

Actually, that is exactly what it is.  It says so clearly right under your avatar.  :)

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As a general rule, and this goes back over a decade, we haven't started threads on events where model consensus isn't there under 5 days. That's just a good way to clutter the board and clutter the server.

But nobody likes Brick! And every time he starts a thread, he gets jumped on. Just because he's Brick. Never mind all of the other threads that he started and all the other posts that he's made that were very good.

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I don't know why there is so much debate on creating a storm thread for a storm 5+ days away. Hell we can't even count on a winter storm that is within 24 hours so why in all things that are pure and good start making threads for storms so far out? 

 

Besides.... isn't it common knowledge that creating a thread more that 5 days out is the next to last death nail? Only thing more certain to kill a storm is going into Storm Mode with a phone/video conference with DT

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As a general rule, and this goes back over a decade, we haven't started threads on events where model consensus isn't there under 5 days. That's just a good way to clutter the board and clutter the server.

 

That can't be.  I haven't been a Mod for that long!!  I thought it was all:

 

1. I am heavy handed

 

2. I am Butch to Brick's, Alfalfa

 

3. I am a member of a super secret clique

 

4. My license plate ends with 666

 

 

Ah well. I'll keep trying.

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I'm offline 15 hours and I came back to read two whole pages of debate over whether or not Brick should have followed the 5 day rule on starting a storm thread? What has the world come to?!  :arrowhead:  :wacko2:  

 

Frankly, I'm not sure if this is better suited in this thread or the pattern thread, but for the sake of less argument I'll leave it in here.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
238 PM EST MON JAN 5 2015

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

I DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE GENERAL
TRENDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS CYCLE. WEAK RE-
ENFORCING FRONT TUESDAY DOES NOT AFFECT GENERAL THICKNESS VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY DRY...FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG...MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY MEASURABLE
QPF INTO NORTH GEORGIA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. COLDEST AIR STAYS NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT
WILL ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE HAD
SINCE AROUND THIS TIME LAST YEAR. SYSTEM COMING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT HARD TO PIN DOWN. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES DO NOT INDICATE ANY DEEP...ENTRENCHED COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION...BUT COOL AND DRY LOWER/MID-LEVELS HINT AT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF WINTRY MIX BY EARLY SUNDAY.
MODELS AND HPC QPF
ARE MINIMAL 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AS WELL.

 

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEXT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. DEFINITELY SOME QUESTION ON
TIMING OF INCOMING PRECIP VS OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LAYER RH VALUES
INCREASE QUITE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS NOT SPITTING OUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MIGHT DEFINITELY
LIMIT HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW IT DOES
LOOK LIKE A PORTION OF NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...AND
WITH THAT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN ZONES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. OF COURSE THIS WILL BE REFINED
OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT POPS ARE PRETTY LOW...
BARELY THERE. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCOMING FOR SUNDAY BUT
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SURFACE TEMPS SO NO ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS ABOUT P-TYPE AT THIS TIME.

 

 

This is my forecast Saturday night, it's a measly, pathetic 20%, but I'll take whatever I can get!  :lol:

  • Saturday NightA slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
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