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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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I would have relied on the euro too. The GFS is essentially unproven so far. That said, they hung onto those high totals for a long time. It looks like using radar, obs, satellite, etc., they would have been able to get a sense of which model was most likely to be correct.

 

But the RGEM/UK agreed with the GFS, although the RGEM was a little high, it wasn't Euro high though.  Looking back at yesterdays 12z models it looks like GFS and UK were fairly close to what happened.  I ride the RGEM inside 36 hours.

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Wait, 2002-03 sucked? Yeah, ok, let's just completely ignore the historic storm in December, the 1.5 of pure sleet (~5 inches of snow liquid equivalent), the other lighter evens & the snow at the end of March... It really doesn't cement what you're saying, and as usual you're blowing things entirely out of proportion...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How can I be blowing things out of proportion, it's a been a complete skunk, not event close to a winter event here.  We have had no snow not even sniffed snow, this is nothing like 05.  The analog patterns for Feb +ENSO/+PDO that have been shown ain't happening.   

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How can I be blowing things out of proportion, it's a been a complete skunk, not event close to a winter event here.  We have had no snow not even sniffed snow, this is nothing like 05.  The analog patterns for Feb +ENSO/+PDO that have been shown ain't happening.   

 

You have been blowing things out of proportion since mid-late December how this winter has sucked & it also looks like you pulled the same exact crap last year. Claiming that the analogs are somehow entirely bogus when in fact the month of February hasn't even started yet isn't a smart move...

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How can I be blowing things out of proportion, it's a been a complete skunk, not event close to a winter event here. We have had no snow not even sniffed snow, this is nothing like 05. The analog patterns for Feb +ENSO/+PDO that have been shown ain't happening.

Irmo sc got 6" on Nov 1st, that was kind of skunky
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No accumulation. Still a shutout to me. We have had zero winters in recorded history with no accumulating snow, IIRC, yet here we are. We'll probably get something next month, though.

 

A trace isn't technically 0, however, thus it's technically not a shutout regardless of what you may deem as such...

 

BTW, Raleigh (RDU) saw a "T" of snow on Dec 20th. No accumulation.

 

Thanks, I saw that, too bad I was in Fayetteville for that one

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So it looks like DT got schooled by Carl Parker. With DT's large following, I am guessing he did more to help TWC's ratings than most advertising campaign's they could have run. lol

It seems to me DT is not only sucking moose balls, but has so many in his mouth and throat he's literally choking on them this morning.

Arrogance is usually only acceptable when you are right. Many will turn on him over this huge bust, and rightfully so.

how much was he forecasting? I suppose he was cursing everyone at some point too?

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Until you can explain how and why the upcoming pattern is going to support a greater chance of snow than what we've seen all winter long, stop whining about negativity. Blindingly saying, "Yay, it can snow at anytime" is just weenie speak. Sure something can pop up. But being realistic about how the winter has unfolded and how the pattern is likely to unfold isn't being negative. Why don't you show why you think the pattern is going to support greater chances of snow than what we've seen? Hoping for snow does not make it snow. And basing your position on hope is just as silly as saying it's never going to snow again.

 

Being positive is still better than being negative all the time and whining about not getting snow. And if it doesn't snow, oh well, life goes on. But just reading time and time again it's not going to snow, it sucks, it's never snowing again just because it has not worked out so far is tiresome. No one wants to be around negativity like that all the time. You can be realistic about things, but it's more the overall negative tone all the time that is so annoying to me. 

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Insane that NYC got shafted epic letdown I am sure.....I was pretty convinced that the would have gotten at least 12-20" but it seems that was just east of the city...

if not for that one band we talked about earlier, imagine what they would be saying lol

 

So is this a win for the new GFS?  I haven't been following the models too closely on this storm but knew there was a large discrepancy.  Wasn't the Euro showing like 20"-30" for Boston?

I would say so, as well as the rgem as it was showing a lot lesser amounts early on..as well as the hrrr/rap. The later consistently showed a further east solution from the get go once it was in range. It was one of the red flags for me early on. Many kept discounting it with some mets even trying to say it might be too far east because it had  to do with the storm being off shore. Something to do with the fact that model it ingests  radar data and due to the lack of radar data it was causing it to not see all the latent heat release or something (thus causing it to be too far east).  I was thinking as early as yesterday afternoon that there was a decent shot of a miss here given some of the trends on the models. It seems to me too many were too heavily relying on the fact the euro has this reputation of being great all the time. In reality, I've never been a fan of it in short range situations.

 

Other than the nam, whose totals were so absurd, I have a hard time labeling some of this as a bust though because in reality, the only thing that did bust was where the very sharp cutoff was going to be. I mean what are we talking a few tens of miles here? ..if that cutoff had been anywhere else it wouldn't be such a big deal. Instead it just so happened to be over the heart of the most populated area in the US so it appears to be much bigger than it is. For me,  a lot of this depends on actual amounts in RI and to the east in Connecticut, as well as boston.  If totals there don't live up to the 24 to 36 range, then I would be more inclined to label it a "bust".

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