Solak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 US National Weather Service New York NY 26 mins · The storm has moved further east and will be departing faster than our forecasts of the past two days. The result is much less snow than previously predicted for the western half of our region. The heaviest of the snow will be over Long Island and southern Connecticut with lighter snow elsewhere through the morning hours. The science of forecasting storms, while continually improving, still can be subject to error, especially if we're on the edge of the heavy precipitation shield. Efforts, including research, are already underway to more easily communicate that forecast uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 US National Weather Service New York NY 26 mins · The storm has moved further east and will be departing faster than our forecasts of the past two days. The result is much less snow than previously predicted for the western half of our region. The heaviest of the snow will be over Long Island and southern Connecticut with lighter snow elsewhere through the morning hours. The science of forecasting storms, while continually improving, still can be subject to error, especially if we're on the edge of the heavy precipitation shield. Efforts, including research, are already underway to more easily communicate that forecast uncertainty. ha-ha at the 29million people apology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yeah that's funny. Terrible to wake up to such an epic bust though. I know how they feel, ahem, December 2000, I'm talking to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lol...today show chased this thing to portland maine to find a good snow shot. Should have boarded a trawler and headed for NS while they were at it!! I was thinking last night that we better not get a pattern flip headed into April where it doesnt get warm until June. I will not be a happy camper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 7" for NYC - great job DT, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 7" for NYC - great job DT, lol Hahahaha! Those TWC morons...cutting their totals like that. Dummies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 7" for NYC - great job DT, lol So it looks like DT got schooled by Carl Parker. With DT's large following, I am guessing he did more to help TWC's ratings than most advertising campaign's they could have run. lol It seems to me DT is not only sucking moose balls, but has so many in his mouth and throat he's literally choking on them this morning. Arrogance is usually only acceptable when you are right. Many will turn on him over this huge bust, and rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 @ABC: Snow totals so far (via @Wx_Max) - NYC: 7" - Boston: 8" - Central CT: 14" Sent from my iPhone What, BOS only got 8"? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lol...today show chased this thing to portland maine to find a good snow shot. Should have boarded a trawler and headed for NS while they were at it!! I was thinking last night that we better not get a pattern flip headed into April where it doesnt get warm until June. I will not be a happy camper! I hope not either! But that is probably what will happen!!! Pattern is going to change sometime. it's just going to be to late for our winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 What, BOS only got 8"? No way. lol Epic Blizzard!!! from NY- Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Congrats to Elizabeth City, Tarboro, and Manteo this morning. They were reporting either lgt snow or flurries as of their 7am observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Congrats to Elizabeth City, Tarboro, and Manteo this morning. They were reporting either lgt snow or flurries as of their 7am observation. Same as Knoxville, TN evidently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS absolutely nailed it. Don't ever say the upgrade sucks. Sure the Euro sniffed out the storm, but nobody up north believed the GFS could be right, and look what happened. The signs were there last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 So it's interesting to me that the NWS relied more heavily on the Euro for snow total predictions, and blew off their own model, which ended up being closer to correct. That says that they don't really trust the new GFS they just put out there (so why did they switch to it and shut down the old one? meh). As for us, yeah time's running out, but I'm okay if the pattern flips and we have a cool spring. It's nice not to have terrible power bills for the AC. Silver linings, people, silver linings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 I haven't looked at the models yet, but my hope is that something will pop up out of nowhere during one of these transient cold shots.Brick?? Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS absolutely nailed it. Don't ever say the upgrade sucks. Sure the Euro sniffed out the storm, but nobody up north believed the GFS could be right, and look what happened. The signs were there last night. Definitely agree, it was a big day for the new GFS. However it was Euro/NAM against the world, so it wasn't just the GFS that scored a coup. The short range models seemed to do well and the Canadian, UK, etc. That was a bad statement from NWS Upton. They need to hire a better PR person. You can't put out a 6-36" forecast and they missed by like 100 miles. Just own it. It wasn't poor communication, it was a bad forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS absolutely nailed it. Don't ever say the upgrade sucks. Sure the Euro sniffed out the storm, but nobody up north believed the GFS could be right, and look what happened. The signs were there last night. I'd go look but I'm sure the mods have deleted the majority of it. Was there mass hari kari with sporks over in the NYC forum overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I hate to see anyone get shafted this badly... We deal with it every winter down here but man I feel for the NYC guys. Can't imagine being so hyped up to get 20"+ and then wake up this morning to only 7-8". Only thing that brings me any joy out of this is that DT Failed so badly. What a douche canoe that guy is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm looking forward to DT's next post. It should be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh crap, I slept through the band of snow showers that pushed in overnight in the Triangle... Raleigh is finally on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It makes sense that the NWS would focus more on the Euro. I feel like you probably err more on the side of caution. If they called for 7-8 and ended up with 20+ people would be calling for their heads. Just look at what happened with Super Storm Sandy and they called that one like pros! They really have a thankless no win job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Much of the NYC subforum is taking toaster baths right now. 30", then models started suggesting less, they hugged the NAM, now it's looking like 8-12 for the city proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Much of the NYC subforum is taking toaster baths right now. 30", then models started suggesting less, they hugged the NAM, now it's looking like 8-12 for the city proper. Which was dumb on there part for ignoring the RGEM/UK/GFS and simply hugging the Euro. Everyone knows the NAM should be completely ignored. I would bet a blend of the UK/RGEM/GFS was fairly close to what transpired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I would have relied on the euro too. The GFS is essentially unproven so far. That said, they hung onto those high totals for a long time. It looks like using radar, obs, satellite, etc., they would have been able to get a sense of which model was most likely to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 parachuting in as a tropical weenie to note that I don't quite get how models are viewed and used for winter storms.it's abundantly clear that consensus models are greatly superior to any of the individual models that make them up for tropical track forecasts, even very broad consensus models.Yet for winter wx it's always viewed as some sort of Mano-a-mano death match where one model is "great" and the rest are deemed "garbage" (though this may change every 12 hours).Granted, TCs have a discrete trackable center so it's easier, but isn't it pretty clear that what actually happened with this storm was basically the average of the major model ouputs?I know it seems boring and wimpy to simply assert a given winter storm will do something that is a blend of all the models but you'll end up more accurate than the current view of models as some sort of steel Great point made by Derecho in the NYC Bust thread....Also, skill scores on significant QPF amounts are still not that great even in the Day 1 time frame and when 50 miles means everything you are going to get burned more than a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Much of the NYC subforum is taking toaster baths right now. 30", then models started suggesting less, they hugged the NAM, now it's looking like 8-12 for the city proper. Gov. Cuomo in his news conference a few minutes ago said 6"-7" for the city proper. That matches what you can see on live cams, it's like a barely there Southern snow where you're grateful it got deep enough to cover the bermuda. Further east over at LaGuardia was 8-10". To get any higher totals was yet further east on LI. Maine was the place to be for this storm, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Same as Knoxville, TN evidently. Ah, congrats to Knoxville as well. Although I'd imagine the flakes cause more of a stir in Manteo than Knoxville. Flakes are flakes though. Oh crap, I slept through the band of snow showers that pushed in overnight in the Triangle... Raleigh is finally on the board. Had no idea. I bet no one was up for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You were saying this Jan 20th of last year. Did you really go spend time to look at that up? LOL. For that event we were talking about I was right, we got a dusting, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Which is what the LR models are spitting out the first 10 days of Feb. Looks like we got a small event in Feb 73, but the other 4 winters were skunks in Feb/Mar and 3 of the winters were complete skunks. Kind of cements what I am saying. Also, look at that scale, we are -0.4 for the anomaly, that's essentially neutral for temps. Looking more at 59, we got all our snow that winter in Dec. For 73 we got most of it in January. The other 3 winters sucked. #Winter2015FTL Wait, 2002-03 sucked? Yeah, ok, let's just completely ignore the historic storm in December, the 1.5 of pure sleet (~5 inches of snow liquid equivalent), the other lighter evens & the snow at the end of March... It really doesn't cement what you're saying, and as usual you're blowing things entirely out of proportion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I hate to see anyone get shafted this badly... We deal with it every winter down here but man I feel for the NYC guys. Can't imagine being so hyped up to get 20"+ and then wake up this morning to only 7-8". Only thing that brings me any joy out of this is that DT Failed so badly. What a douche canoe that guy is. If it's ok with everyone else, I'd be IN for having to live through that very scenerio here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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