superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 And...... NAM is MUCH further east OH SNAP. Of course, it showed like 40" of snow last run, so it might still work out okay. Looks terrible for N NJ, though. Honestly, it was a huge shift for a freaking hr 12 forecast. Embarrassing for that model... Close to a 100 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 rofl...like I said I would be shocked if NYC got 3 FEET....looks like they aren't gonna come close to two. A met at HAZWX tweeted out this image earlier of the 12z nam with a funky algorithm they use (Kuchera method? per talking to him on twitter) Anyway, that might not verify...although he did agree with me those totals were too high, especially the 4.5 feet widespread just east of NYC in long island. Needless to say though that image got a lot of retweets...people will be scratching their head.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 And...... OH SNAP. Of course, it showed like 40" of snow last run, so it might still work out okay. Looks terrible for N NJ, though. Honestly, it was a huge shift for a freaking hr 12 forecast. Embarrassing for that model... Close to a 100 mile shift. those huge last minute shifts are a bitc*, course we know all about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The NAM is just a terrible, terrible model and should never be looked at by any serious weather forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Funny thing is in NYC, if you are driving your car after 11pm, it's automatic 350$ fine if you are caught! I thought they could handle snow!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The NAM still probably drops 12-18" once it's all said and done. They've got a good 5" on the ground now with about 1" QPF to come or so. Of course, it's the NAM, so maybe it's overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 YIKES. Readying my toaster bath before bedtime. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lol. NAM went east. Now they are trashing after praising it earlier. Euro is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Funny thing is in NYC, if you are driving your car after 11pm, it's automatic 350$ fine if you are caught! I thought they could handle snow!? No one can handle 3-4" a hr for hrs at a time and they don't want cars getting stuck all over cause then they cant plow. Then people have heart attacks and cant get anywhere cause emergency vehicles cant move around due to all the vehicles stuck in the roads. The radar looks pretty insane rates of LI are easily 2-4" a hr in those heavier bands and its drifting back into the city and reaching the NJ coast now most models didn't have things really getting cranked till after 10 tonight when better mid level support moves in so we shall see what is what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'd say 2'+ is pretty much assured somewhere on Long Island, in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Lol. NAM went east. Now they are trashing after praising it earlier. Euro is on its own. NWS standing firm. User Actions Follow NWS New York NYVerified account@NWSNewYorkNY Forecast is still on track with bands of moderate to heavy snow working their way west-northwest http://ow.ly/i/8oZz5 Reply Retweet Favorite More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Funny thing is in NYC, if you are driving your car after 11pm, it's automatic 350$ fine if you are caught! I thought they could handle snow!? Surely they can handle a foot of snow ! It's not like this is historic or anything. What if you are driving to work ? Or driving to the hospital ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The city is still looking atleast 12-15", with the 5" they already got plus another 10" or so. It's not like they aren't going to get a great event. Boston looks great for 2'+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The NAM still probably drops 12-18" once it's all said and done. They've got a good 5" on the ground now with about 1" QPF to come or so. Of course, it's the NAM, so maybe it's overdone. I have seen the NAM spit out runs like this before and be wrong but I'd be sweating if I was in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NWS standing firm. 45] User Actions FollowNWS New York NYVerified account@NWSNewYorkNY Forecast is still on track with bands of moderate to heavy snow working their way west-northwest http://ow.ly/i/8oZz5 Reply Retweet Favorite More Yep! They cant back away now with the way them discussions were worded. I guess they are staying by the Euro since it completely led the way with this storm.TWC just showed a satellite image of the storm and lightning strikes were exploding near the center. Thing is rapidly deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Michael Lowry @MichaelRLowry 6m6 minutes ago 2,500 miles and 9 dropsondes later, Hurricane Hunters headed home. Models cranking w/ new data. #Juno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yep! They can back away now with the way them discussions were worded. I guess they are staying by the Euro since it completely led the way with this storm. TWC just showed a satellite image of the storm and lightning strikes were exploding near the center. Thing is rapidly deepening. All that just makes "storms" down here seem so... boring. It gets cold. We get a piddly little band of showers up from the south that drops .25-.5 liquid and get a few inches of snow. We exult for a week. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This loop pretty much says it all unless it just slams on the brakes they are in for a epic snowstorm tonight, nowhere east of that band is getting less than 1" a hr and its more like 2-3" most likely and anywhere its yellow is 3-4" or more a hr, So even if it "only" sits over you for 2-3 hrs you still got a foot or so.... http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/ny/new-york-city/okx/?region=hfd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It really is kinda fun watching wall to wall wx coverage of the big blizzard thing on TV. Wish it was here, but it's still fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 TWC keeps showing how the different models are showing different solutions, but they're not discussing how the storm is developing wrt the various models' forecasts, so that they would know which one might be performing the best. I would think that would be something they would want to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Has anyone got a JB final call map? This is the royal rumble between models, twc v/s dt, iso v/s cantore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It really is kinda fun watching wall to wall wx coverage of the big blizzard thing on TV. Wish it was here, but it's still fun to watch. From a met perspective it's fun to follow..but from a personal perspective, it sucks. All that just makes "storms" down here seem so... boring. It gets cold. We get a piddly little band of showers up from the south that drops .25-.5 liquid and get a few inches of snow. We exult for a week. LOL. Yeah I think that to myself every time they get a big one and have again several times today. It's like them winning a 250 million dollar jackpot while we flip out over winning a few bucks or another free ticket on a scratch off. I can't decide if it's funny, sad, pathetic, or just weird. Maybe all of the above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 NWS Boston @NWSBoston 5m5 minutes ago 3" per hour snowfall rates already observed in a band setting up just south of our office here in Taunton, MA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Got that right! From a met perspective it's fun to follow..but from a personal perspective, it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The city is still looking atleast 12-15", with the 5" they already got plus another 10" or so. It's not like they aren't going to get a great event. Boston looks great for 2'+. If they had not gotten that somewhat flukish band there would have been a a lot of cliff diving already. It was funny watching all the weenies literally screaming that it proved the nam and euro would be right even though it proved absolutely nothing. But its pretty amazing it set up where it did to the point that if totals are not as advertised with the main event, it could save some forecasters some grief. would be worried if I was in new jersey or just west of town. the hrrr has been remarkably consistent in showing the city being the cutoff between the halfs and half nots and frankly that looks like what they trends are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 post of the day in the nyc thread Absolute crap in the city. They are plowing wet ground on Broadway. Good thing they closed everything so I can't get home. Super pissed. Just not our storm here. Let's see if we get to a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Ouch, HRRR. With 4.5 inches at Central Park, HRRR only give NYC a total of 9-12" if this is correct. Not a bad job by GFS if this is the case... EDIT: Mods, am I allowed to post HRRR map from WeatherBell or is that a no-no since it's a paid site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If they had not gotten that somewhat flukish band there would have been a a lot of cliff diving already. It was funny watching all the weenies literally screaming that it proved the nam and euro would be right even though it proved absolutely nothing. But its pretty amazing it set up where it did to the point that if totals are not as advertised with the main event, it could save some forecasters some grief. would be worried if I was in new jersey or just west of town. the hrrr has been remarkably consistent in showing the city being the cutoff between the halfs and half nots and frankly that looks like what they trends are. Flukish early starts are always deceiving. I've seen that a few times with our storms where we get some unexpected early overrunning precip and start believing that we're going to overperform, then we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Flukish early starts are always deceiving. I've seen that a few times with our storms where we get some unexpected early overrunning precip and start believing that we're going to overperform, then we don't.Lol! Mack can tell you about that last year. He thought dem 6 inchez wuz gonna b a bonus.Some folks in the SE are actually getting snow. There were some decent returns north of Atlanta but since have disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 post of the day in the nyc thread typically weenie stuff, these guys do just like the folks down here do when the storm is starting and the radar looks like crap and everyone gets all panicky and starts sweating a bust.....they will get hammered in NYC maybe not 24-36" but 16-24" is a safe bet city wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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