January Banter

[southernskimmer]

Dear winter

 

[Cold Rain]

Hey, lol, I'm not sure about no doubt.  But I can't get that out of the back of mind.  I know one thing, I certainly will root for a warm November next year/ with no snow.  Analogs smanalogs.  The other thing I'll stick to is STJ and -NAO.  That's all I want.  Summing up: Need warm November with no snow, active STJ, and -NAO = SE snow. 

 

I agree though, I hope the forecasts for next winter are for warm and dry.  It'll probably be 100% opposite.

I'm with you. I'm rooting for that too.

 

 

It almost never happens though, they will/are going to flip flop all over the place.....I will wait till we see what happens after this big bomb hits NE and moves up NE of the US....

 

I look at model runs a little differently than most as well, I think the models have windows where they seem more reliable especially the Euro, when we get these bigger snowstorms it seem that the Euro will hit on it 10-12 days out, then lose it until around day 6-7  then lose it and then finally home in on it inside 72 hrs...when I say lose it I dont mean drop the storm completely but go to a OTS or rain solution...

Hope you're right. Would be nice to see it come back!

[Cold Rain]

By the way, it's funny that the board isn't in Storm Mode.

[Jon]

Let's all cancel winter before February starts! Brilliant idea.

[jburns]

From the afternoon update from RAH pretty funny stuff

 

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH

REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48

LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST

DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN

GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER

AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE

EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

 

 

LONG RANGE: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH

REGARD TO THE TAX MONEY FOR MET OFFICES OVER THE LOWER 48. AS A RESULT...FUNDING

DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN

GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL FUNDING ALONG WITH INCREASED TAXPAYER UNREST

AND A CHANCE FOR DOWN SIZING LATE SPRING THROUGH EARLY FALL AS

THE NEXT BUDGET PROGRESSES MOVES ACROSS THE

HOUSE AND SENATE...FOLLOWED BY HEARINGS AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL FUNDING

GOING FORWARD. -JOE TAXPAYER

[packbacker]

By the way, it's funny that the board isn't in Storm Mode.

 

Only when NoVA get's a winter storm, LOL.

[franklin NCwx]

By the way, it's funny that the board isn't in Storm Mode.

DC is getting snow?

[Cold Rain]

Haha good point!

[metalicwx366]

If you extrapolate the the 18zNAM to 180 hours, there might be some snow. All the players are on the field near 144 hours, so it might be setting up for good.

[gritsnc]

NC PIEDMONT WEATHER just put out his snowfall map for tonight/tomorrow. 1-3 inches for the NE parts of NC. And people really believe that?

[superjames1992]

If you extrapolate the the 18zNAM to 180 hours, there might be some snow. All the players are on the field near 144 hours, so it might be setting up for good.

18z DGEX FTW.

[downeastnc]

From MHX NWS afternoon update....I will take a dusting just so I can say we didnt get skunked for the season if nothing else pans out this winter

 

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES
EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF THE COASTAL LOW
AS IT MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THESE SERIES OF EVENTS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO BE CIRCULATED INTO EASTERN NC AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING TO UNDER 1000 FT BY 12Z TUESDAY. THUS ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ABLE TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STRONG VERT STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY...AND WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTER WX.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE THE PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NC. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE 30S TUE MORNING
AND ONLY WARMING TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OR ALL OF THE PERIOD...STILL EXPECT
MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NW AREAS FROM
GREENVILLE AND WILLIAMSTON TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION AND THE
NRN OBX WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION
AS THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THE
LONGEST...BUT WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ANY
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A DUSTING AT ANY LOCATION. PRECIP WILL LIKELY TRANSITION BACK
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40.
 

[superjames1992]

NC PIEDMONT WEATHER just put out his snowfall map for tonight/tomorrow. 3-6 inches for the NE parts of NC. And people really believe that?

OMG. He has a members-only section now, which he charges for.

[gritsnc]

OMG. He has a members-only section now, which he charges for.

Exactly! It's driving me crazy knowing that people are actually paying to get these ridiculous posts from him.

[gritsnc]

Btw, I had to edit my previous post. He's saying 1-3. Not 3-6. I think I was laughing so hard that I became colorblind for a moment.

[downeastnc]

Btw, I had to edit my previous post. He's saying 1-3. Not 3-6. I think I was laughing so hard that I became colorblind for a moment.

 

Yeah thats a pretty ballsy call,  if it can way overperform on QPF and temps a a few degrees colder than forecast its possible I guess, but I think a dusting to a inch would be best case scenario anywhere in SE VA or NE NC and only on elevated and grassy surfaces.

[packbacker]

Either the new GFS is really bad or really good, although the 18z RGEM backed off on totals too.

 

It has NYC with 3-5" of snow, I am reading they are already over 5".

 

Edit:  18z RGEM has .7" QPF for NYC (8-10") of snow.  Ukmet was similar.

[downeastnc]

Reading the NYC thread and it looks like the GFS and RGEM screwed the pooch with this system both models didnt have NYC hitting 3" till 1 am tonight and most of the guys up there are reportin 3-6" already in the city and its dumping snow looks like the NAM and Euro might have it right and NYC might see 3 ft.....

 

edit : damn packbacker

[sparklecity]

Really coming down right now.

 

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/fifthave/?cam=nyc5th_str

[Jon]

Reading the NYC thread and it looks like the GFS and RGEM screwed the pooch with this system both models didnt have NYC hitting 3" till 1 am tonight and most of the guys up there are reportin 3-6" already in the city and its dumping snow looks like the NAM and Euro might have it right and NYC might see 3 ft.....

 

edit : damn packbacker

If NYC sees 3ft I will be shocked....

[superjames1992]

If NYC sees 3ft I will be shocked....

I'd go 12-18"+ with upside to be safe. I could see 24-30", but that looks confined to Long Island to me if it happens at all. We shall see.

Looks like the NWS has 18-24" for Manhattan and Staten Island while Queens, etc. is 24-36".

I think some up there are counting on high ratios, but I'm not sure about that with the high winds and inevitable compacting.

[CherokeeGA]

From the afternoon update from RAH pretty funny stuff

 

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH

REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48

LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST

DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN

GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER

AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE

EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

 

 

Here, I fixed it for them:

 

SUN-MON: THE MODELS HAVE NO CLUE (BEYOND THE TYPICAL, WHICH IS THAT WE WILL

HAVE WEATHER OF SOME KIND) FOR WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN WITH REGARD TO THE

EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 LATE THIS WEEKEND

AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED

AT THIS TIME (SO WE ROLLED A PAIR OF RHOMBIC TRIACONTRAHEDRON DICE 47 TIMES

AT LUNCH AND AVERAGED THE RESULTS). IN GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE

EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

LATE MON/MON NIGHT

[Dunkman]

Either the new GFS is really bad or really good, although the 18z RGEM backed off on totals too.

 

It has NYC with 3-5" of snow, I am reading they are already over 5".

 

Edit:  18z RGEM has .7" QPF for NYC (8-10") of snow.  Ukmet was similar.

Every weather office I've read has completely tossed the GFS since yesterday. The NCEP can't be happy that the upgraded model has been borderline unusable in major storm systems so far.

[Lookout]

I'd go 12-18"+ with upside to be safe. I could see 24-30", but that looks confined to Long Island to me if it happens at all. We shall see.

Looks like the NWS has 18-24" for Manhattan and Staten Island while Queens, etc. is 24-36".

I think some up there are counting on high ratios, but I'm not sure about that with the high winds and inevitable compacting.

I know one thing, if this thing panned out like the gfs and the hrrr, there will be mass weenie suicide. Many are proclaiming the gfs trash because of this one band right now but I don't need to tell anyone that doesn't mean much since it really has nothing to do with the main event.

 

For kicks and giggles. Some expert analysis from the nyc forum

 

 

wow ok...the nam was also THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAD THIS BAND HITTING US TODAY...AT THIS POINT IF U WERE MAKING A FORECAST EVERY MODEL SHOULD BE TOSSED EXCEPT THE EURO AND NAM...AND THATS NOT BEING A WEENIE UPTON FULLY AGREES

[sparklecity]

Does the old GFS run anywhere still?

[buckeyefan1]

I know one thing, if this thing panned out like the gfs and the hrrr, there will be mass weenie suicide. Many are proclaiming the gfs trash because of this one band right now but I don't need to tell anyone that doesn't mean much since it really has nothing to do with the main event.

 

For kicks and giggles. Some expert analysis from the nyc forum

 

 

wow ok...the nam was also THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAD THIS BAND HITTING US TODAY...AT THIS POINT IF U WERE MAKING A FORECAST EVERY MODEL SHOULD BE TOSSED EXCEPT THE EURO AND NAM...AND THATS NOT BEING A WEENIE UPTON FULLY AGREES

I can't delete the stoopid fast enough       

[NC_WX10]

After looking at the NYC forum I am pretty down about winter here in the tropical climate of NC. Hopefully I'll see some snow when I move to Boone next fall. 

[Winterhawk]

I know one thing, if this thing panned out like the gfs and the hrrr, there will be mass weenie suicide. Many are proclaiming the gfs trash because of this one band right now but I don't need to tell anyone that doesn't mean much since it really has nothing to do with the main event.

 

For kicks and giggles. Some expert analysis from the nyc forum

 

 

wow ok...the nam was also THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAD THIS BAND HITTING US TODAY...AT THIS POINT IF U WERE MAKING A FORECAST EVERY MODEL SHOULD BE TOSSED EXCEPT THE EURO AND NAM...AND THATS NOT BEING A WEENIE UPTON FULLY AGREES

Should be interesting how this transpires, Epic possible meltdowns in the NYC Forum, could give the Mid Atlantic best melt-downs a run for the money..

[NavarreDon]

Wow! I just keep reading this disco over & over. Just once in my life!...............

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
- SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED!
- 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING
- WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
- MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION

*/ OVERVIEW...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING
S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG
AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N
ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES
OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY
STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING
LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH
THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING.
ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

KEY TO THE FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSING H85 / H7 LOW AND
PARENT CYCLONIC WARM- AND DRY-CONVEYOR BELT MOTIONS. PRESENTLY AN
OPEN-WAVE AHEAD OF WHICH A SW-NE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SEEN PER WSR-
88D RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN FORCING ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE AND IMPACT S/SE NEW ENGLAND FROM NOW INTO
TONIGHT /1-2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES LATE/. THE BAND WILL PIVOT
SSW-NNE AND TROWAL REARWARD OF BOMBING LOW AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEIGHBORED WITH -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ OF HIGH THETA-E AIR BELOW STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
YIELDS AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SNOWBAND AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSNOW. INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HR AROUND
MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTED OF MODERATE-HEAVY
SNOW. DECENT STAR-SIGNATURES WITHIN FORECAST SNOW-BANDING WITH
STRONG LIFT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH-ZONE.

WHILE THAT IS ONE FORECAST AREA OF MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING...ANOTHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED BENEATH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DRY AIR AT -10C E...SO ICE SHOULD
BE PRESENT AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER THRU WHICH STRONG FORCING
SHOULD OCCUR. THIS BANDING EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER SE NEW ENGLAND
ADDING MORE SNOW ON TOP OF THE INITIAL FRONT-END THUMP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

[Isopycnic]

Cold Rain is on the 18z gfs.

My second favorite type