January Banter

[Brick Tamland]

[Cold Rain]

It's just snow. I don't know why some people won't accept the fact that they're not going to get any. Life goes on.

[Brick Tamland]

It's just snow. I don't know why some people won't accept the fact that they're not going to get any. Life goes on.

 

I'd rather just wait and see what happens. If we are a day out and it doesn't look good, so be it. If it doesn't snow, I'll live. 

[Cold Rain]

I'd rather just wait and see what happens. If we are a day out and it doesn't look good, so be it. If it doesn't snow, I'll live.

Awesome. I think we'll all live. I don't think not having snow this weekend is literally going to kill anyone.

[Brick Tamland]

Awesome. I think we'll all live. I don't think not having snow this weekend is literally going to kill anyone.

 

I'm worried about packbacker.

[FallsLake]

I wonder how many(from the SE) will put much weight on any winter outlook next year.

 

Me personally, will be looking for a warm November and no late October storm. That probably has no merit but seems just a good indicator as others. So hopefully I'll make my prediction of a snowy 2015/16 winter on a warm 70 degree day in November, after a dry October.     

[Cold Rain]

I wonder how many(from the SE) will put much weight on any winter outlook next year.

 

Me personally, will be looking for a warm November and no late October storm. That probably has no merit but seems just a good indicator as others. So hopefully I'll make my prediction of a snowy 2015/16 winter on a warm 70 degree day in November, after a dry October.

If the outlook is for above normal snow and below normal temps, 0%.

If the outlook is for below normal snow and above normal temps, 100%.

[Cold Rain]

I'm worried about packbacker.

I wouldn't. He'll go buy some preemergent and be fine. He can afford plenty of it now that he's cancelled his subscription to WxBell again.

[Brick Tamland]

I wonder how many(from the SE) will put much weight on any winter outlook next year.

 

Me personally, will be looking for a warm November and no late October storm. That probably has no merit but seems just a good indicator as others. So hopefully I'll make my prediction of a snowy 2015/16 winter on a warm 70 degree day in November, after a dry October.     

 

None. It seems everything the mets thought going into this winter that would give us above average snowfall didn't happen. And I have never seen so much consensus from mets and others on the boards since I have been on the boards for us having above average snowfall and a lot of storms. It really appears we have no idea heading into winter what we will get.

[tnweathernut]

I wonder how many(from the SE) will put much weight on any winter outlook next year.

 

Me personally, will be looking for a warm November and no late October storm. That probably has no merit but seems just a good indicator as others. So hopefully I'll make my prediction of a snowy 2015/16 winter on a warm 70 degree day in November, after a dry October.     

If we get a bomb on the east coast at the end of October or the beginning of November, I am going to cancel winter no matter what anyone tries to tell me.  lol

[jshetley]

There's no doubt having that Nov 1 snow ended any chance for a good winter here. You do not want a big snow anywhere on the east coast before Thanksgiving if you want the rest of winter to be any good. The winters of 2000-2001, 2011-2012, and 2012-2013 are good examples of this.

[packbacker]

What killed this winter was the lack of blocking that failed to develop in December.  Majority of the snowy analogs had blocking in Dec, that was a big red flag, nobody wanted to hear it though.  That's why I was so pessimistic essentially since mid-Dec.  Even with that said I still thought we would see snow in January and we haven't even sniffed anything close, there has literally been nothing even remotely close in Jan to track.  I also thought we wouldn't get skunked but that's looking really likely now.  If for some reason we get a sloppy 1-2" in March that would just be like rubbing salt in the wound.  If mother nature has any mercy in her she will spare us any cool/damp weather after mid-Feb and go to an early spring.  It's hard to fathom that 3 out of the past 4 winters and 7 out of the past 11 have been this bad.  This does mimic what happened with the tail end of the downturn that occurred in the 50's that I posted about.  It's just mind numbingly painful right now.

[Cold Rain]

There's no doubt having that Nov 1 snow ended any chance for a good winter here. You do not want a big snow anywhere on the east coast before Thanksgiving if you want the rest of winter to be any good. The winters of 2000-2001, 2011-2012, and 2012-2013 are good examples of this.

Lolz, Shetley!

[Brick Tamland]

What killed this winter was the lack of blocking that failed to develop in December.  Majority of the snowy analogs had blocking in Dec, that was a big red flag, nobody wanted to hear it though.  That's why I was so pessimistic essentially since mid-Dec.  Even with that said I still thought we would see snow in January and we haven't even sniffed anything close, there has literally been nothing even remotely close in Jan to track.  I also thought we wouldn't get skunked but that's looking really likely now.  If for some reason we get a sloppy 1-2" in March that would just be like rubbing salt in the wound.  If mother nature has any mercy in her she will spare us any cool/damp weather after mid-Feb and go to an early spring.  It's hard to fathom that 3 out of the past 4 winters and 7 out of the past 11 have been this bad.  This does mimic what happened with the tail end of the downturn that occurred in the 50's that I posted about.  It's just mind numbingly painful right now.

 

 

[sparklecity]

Why is threading the needle so hard for the SE?  I mean, I just tried it and got it on the first try.  However, I don't need glasses so maybe the SE just needs new glasses or lasik so we can thread the needle more easily.

[Brick Tamland]

Who wants to double down on their weenie?

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/01/26/double-dog-down-kfc-fried-chicken-hot-dog-sandwich/22350739/

[jshetley]

Lolz, Shetley!

That typhoon that helped some places in SC get that snow changed the pattern. Without that, things may have worked out better.

[sparklecity]

Who wants to double down on their weenie?

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/01/26/double-dog-down-kfc-fried-chicken-hot-dog-sandwich/22350739/

 

 

That's sounds disgustingly unhealthy.  After eating that, you better have toilets on standby.

[downeastnc]

From the afternoon update from RAH pretty funny stuff

 

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

 

[Brick Tamland]

From the afternoon update from RAH pretty funny stuff

 

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH

REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48

LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST

DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN

GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER

AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE

EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

 

 

 

In other words, we have no idea yet.

[rduwx]

I've been busy most of the afternoon and just got a look at the euro.  I can honestly say I wasn't surprised.  Whenever the euro is the only model showing me get snow, it will be wrong.  Now if it's the only model showing me not getting snow, it's usually right.

[Cold Rain]

From the afternoon update from RAH pretty funny stuff

 

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH

REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48

LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST

DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN

GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER

AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE

EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS

LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

I really wish that just one time this winter, we'd start to see the models converge on a colder and snowier solution as we move in. It's fun to read the AFDs up in the NE and just watch this event unfold. I really would like to be reading AFDs from RAH talking about how big and historic the impending snowstorm was about to be. I wish I had the AFDs from the Jan 2000 one.

[Cold Rain]

I've been busy most of the afternoon and just got a look at the euro.  I can honestly say I wasn't surprised.  Whenever the euro is the only model showing me get snow, it will be wrong.  Now if it's the only model showing me not getting snow, it's usually right.

Truth!

[packfan98]

The new nam gives NYC 2-3 feet and the high res 3-4. Wow!

[Cold Rain]

The new nam gives NYC 2-3 feet and the high res 3-4. Wow!

The Nam is just stupid. All versions of it.

[metalicwx366]

Not really.

Ikr. It's not like we live in Boston.

[SnowNiner]

Lolz, Shetley!

 

Hey, lol, I'm not sure about no doubt.  But I can't get that out of the back of mind.  I know one thing, I certainly will root for a warm November next year/ with no snow.  Analogs smanalogs.  The other thing I'll stick to is STJ and -NAO.  That's all I want.  Summing up: Need warm November with no snow, active STJ, and -NAO = SE snow. 

 

I agree though, I hope the forecasts for next winter are for warm and dry.  It'll probably be 100% opposite. 

[downeastnc]

I really wish that just one time this winter, we'd start to see the models converge on a colder and snowier solution as we move in. It's fun to read the AFDs up in the NE and just watch this event unfold. I really would like to be reading AFDs from RAH talking about how big and historic the impending snowstorm was about to be. I wish I had the AFDs from the Jan 2000 one.

 

It almost never happens though, they will/are going to flip flop all over the place.....I will wait till we see what happens after this big bomb hits NE and moves up NE of the US....

 

I look at model runs a little differently than most as well, I think the models have windows where they seem more reliable especially the Euro, when we get these bigger snowstorms it seem that the Euro will hit on it 10-12 days out, then lose it until around day 6-7  then lose it and then finally home in on it inside 72 hrs...when I say lose it I dont mean drop the storm completely but go to a OTS or rain solution...

[Brick Tamland]

It almost never happens though, they will/are going to flip flop all over the place.....I will wait till we see what happens after this big bomb hits NE and moves up NE of the US....

 

I look at model runs a little differently than most as well, I think the models have windows where they seem more reliable especially the Euro, when we get these bigger snowstorms it seem that the Euro will hit on it 10-12 days out, then lose it until around day 6-7  then lose it and then finally home in on it inside 72 hrs...when I say lose it I dont mean drop the storm completely but go to a OTS or rain solution...

 

That would be great if it happens this time because that has been pretty much what has happened with the Euro for Sunday's storm.

[superjames1992]

The Doc is a lying ahole.