rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 How much for Youngsville, NC? How much for Mayberry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No snow November Dismal December Joke January Failed February Marginal March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 No snow November Dismal December Joke January Failed February Marginal March I'm up to .25" of snow FTY!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Interesting Euro run, now the NW trend will commence. The 6z GEFS is already to warm. I am actually more pumped about the tweets from Mike V. (WSI) this morning showing the pattern breaking down, the EPO failing, the strong +AO/+NAO in the day 11+ range. Once this day 7 becomes a cold rain for us that should be it for the winter. Very similar to early Jan where the first week or so was cold then the pattern went to crap the rest of the month, repeat for Feb incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Interesting Euro run, now the NW trend will commence. The 6z GEFS is already to warm. I am actually more pumped about the tweets from Mike V. (WSI) this morning showing the pattern breaking down, the EPO failing, the strong +AO/+NAO in the day 11+ range. Once this day 7 becomes a cold rain for us that should be it for the winter. Very similar to early Jan where the first week or so was cold then the pattern went to crap the rest of the month, repeat for Feb incoming. Yep. When the rain/snow line is bisecting NC 6/7 days out, it's a virtual lock for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yep. When the rain/snow line is bisecting NC 6/7 days out, it's a virtual lock for rain. LOL, we never learn. If you want snow at this range you want it 100 miles south at day 6-7. I would suspect a similar track to last weeks coastal, tracking up our fannies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Another day of 40s and rain. There has been at least one day like this every week here since the beginning of December. Hard to believe we have had that much precip but no snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Whatever happened to not having to thread the needle with this one? The models have shown their hands this winter. Good patterns in the LR are pure fantasy (for the SE anyway) Yeah I think I've got about another week or so in me and I'm about done with this futile hope this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Another day of 40s and rain. There has been at least one day like this every week here since the beginning of December. Hard to believe we have had that much precip but no snow yet. Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Whatever happened to not having to thread the needle with this one? The models have shown their hands this winter. Good patterns in the LR are pure fantasy (for the SE anyway) Yeah I think I've got about another week or so in me and I'm about done with this futile hope this year. Man, we never thread the needle at D10. In fact, there is no needle at D10. The D10 pattern is usually awesomtasticalicious. We get closer, and the upper level pattern doesn't support high pressures nearly as strong or in nearly as favorable locations. That's what usually happens anyway. That's why I harp so much on having a cold pattern locked in. I don't care if it *looks* like it's going to be just cold and dry. Storms can pop up. Cold air can't and doesn't and never will. **Note, I'm not talking about CAD situations where models underestimate low level cold either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Man, we never thread the needle at D10. In fact, there is no needle at D10. The D10 pattern is usually awesomtasticalicious. We get closer, and the upper level pattern doesn't support high pressures nearly as strong or in nearly as favorable locations. That's what usually happens anyway. That's why I harp so much on having a cold pattern locked in. I don't care if it *looks* like it's going to be just cold and dry. Storms can pop up. Cold air can't and doesn't and never will. **Note, I'm not talking about CAD situations where models underestimate low level cold either. this will always happen when the nao is positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Not really.Stop trolling, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 this will always happen when the nao is positive.Cold can appear, dynamic cooling! Models don't see it yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Man, we never thread the needle at D10. In fact, there is no needle at D10. The D10 pattern is usually awesomtasticalicious. We get closer, and the upper level pattern doesn't support high pressures nearly as strong or in nearly as favorable locations. That's what usually happens anyway. That's why I harp so much on having a cold pattern locked in. I don't care if it *looks* like it's going to be just cold and dry. Storms can pop up. Cold air can't and doesn't and never will. **Note, I'm not talking about CAD situations where models underestimate low level cold either. Yeah, fantasy patterns have been the flavor of the winter. It just never quite materializes as shown... I do think a storm comes out of the SW low of doom (persistance, like the last storm),....but I agree I bet the ridge is not quite strong or high enough to get us strong enough high pressures in place. That and probably an inland tract. Probably be another nice cold rain event for superbowl parties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 this will always happen when the nao is positive. The NAO is always positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Cold can appear, dynamic cooling! Models don't see it yet! Stop trolling, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Everything is caving to the Euro with the blizzard today and tomorrow. Pretty incredible when you think it was basically on its own and all the other models are coming back. Long live the king. It's too bad that the LR Euro is, umm, not quite as reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Everything is caving to the Euro with the blizzard today and tomorrow. Pretty incredible when you think it was basically on its own and all the other models are coming back. Long live the king. It's too bad that the LR Euro is, umm, not quite as reliable. Lets hope they cave to it with this Sunday's storm, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We need a second great Euro run... This is my only thought right now.... Everything is caving to the Euro with the blizzard today and tomorrow. Pretty incredible when you think it was basically on its own and all the other models are coming back. Long live the king. It's too bad that the LR Euro is, umm, not quite as reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Pretty excited that David Chandley has been named chief meteorologist of Fox 5. Replacing the legend Ken Cook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I want some thundersnow! Tonight A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 1am. Some thunder is also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well, it looks like our friends in NYC were worrying over nothing last night. The NAM shows 4 feet in NYC ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Interesting Euro run, now the NW trend will commence. The 6z GEFS is already to warm. I am actually more pumped about the tweets from Mike V. (WSI) this morning showing the pattern breaking down, the EPO failing, the strong +AO/+NAO in the day 11+ range. Once this day 7 becomes a cold rain for us that should be it for the winter. Very similar to early Jan where the first week or so was cold then the pattern went to crap the rest of the month, repeat for Feb incoming. I'm glad it shows that In the 11-15 day period . The good patterns showing between days 11-15 have not verified this winter so hopefully that won't either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Pretty excited that David Chandley has been named chief meteorologist of Fox 5. Replacing the legend Ken Cook! I will be watching Fox 5 a lot more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 haha this site is getting shelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 A bit earlier this morning, the surface low to feed the NE Blizzard was off the SC/NC coasts moving up in the right quad of the jetstream pattern. A lot of the energy to feed the storm has been passing over North Carolina this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm glad it shows that In the 11-15 day period . The good patterns showing between days 11-15 have not verified this winter so hopefully that won't either Unfortunately it hasn't worked like that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well, it looks like our friends in NYC were worrying over nothing last night. The NAM shows 4 feet in NYC ! Cut that to 50-65 percent and you have 2-2.5 feet, much more likely, but just as crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I agree. Same cripple factor.. Cut that to 50-65 percent and you have 2-2.5 feet, much more likely, but just as crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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