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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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Interesting Euro run, now the NW trend will commence. The 6z GEFS is already to warm.

I am actually more pumped about the tweets from Mike V. (WSI) this morning showing the pattern breaking down, the EPO failing, the strong +AO/+NAO in the day 11+ range. Once this day 7 becomes a cold rain for us that should be it for the winter. Very similar to early Jan where the first week or so was cold then the pattern went to crap the rest of the month, repeat for Feb incoming.

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Interesting Euro run, now the NW trend will commence. The 6z GEFS is already to warm.

I am actually more pumped about the tweets from Mike V. (WSI) this morning showing the pattern breaking down, the EPO failing, the strong +AO/+NAO in the day 11+ range. Once this day 7 becomes a cold rain for us that should be it for the winter. Very similar to early Jan where the first week or so was cold then the pattern went to crap the rest of the month, repeat for Feb incoming.

Yep. When the rain/snow line is bisecting NC 6/7 days out, it's a virtual lock for rain.

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Whatever happened to not having to thread the needle with this one?  The models have shown their hands this winter.  Good patterns in the LR are pure fantasy (for the SE anyway) 

 

Yeah I think I've got about another week or so in me and I'm about done with this futile hope this year. 

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Whatever happened to not having to thread the needle with this one?  The models have shown their hands this winter.  Good patterns in the LR are pure fantasy (for the SE anyway) 

 

Yeah I think I've got about another week or so in me and I'm about done with this futile hope this year.

Man, we never thread the needle at D10. In fact, there is no needle at D10. The D10 pattern is usually awesomtasticalicious. We get closer, and the upper level pattern doesn't support high pressures nearly as strong or in nearly as favorable locations. That's what usually happens anyway. That's why I harp so much on having a cold pattern locked in. I don't care if it *looks* like it's going to be just cold and dry.

Storms can pop up. Cold air can't and doesn't and never will. **Note, I'm not talking about CAD situations where models underestimate low level cold either.

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Man, we never thread the needle at D10. In fact, there is no needle at D10. The D10 pattern is usually awesomtasticalicious. We get closer, and the upper level pattern doesn't support high pressures nearly as strong or in nearly as favorable locations. That's what usually happens anyway. That's why I harp so much on having a cold pattern locked in. I don't care if it *looks* like it's going to be just cold and dry.

Storms can pop up. Cold air can't and doesn't and never will. **Note, I'm not talking about CAD situations where models underestimate low level cold either.

this will always happen when the nao is positive.
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Man, we never thread the needle at D10. In fact, there is no needle at D10. The D10 pattern is usually awesomtasticalicious. We get closer, and the upper level pattern doesn't support high pressures nearly as strong or in nearly as favorable locations. That's what usually happens anyway. That's why I harp so much on having a cold pattern locked in. I don't care if it *looks* like it's going to be just cold and dry.

Storms can pop up. Cold air can't and doesn't and never will. **Note, I'm not talking about CAD situations where models underestimate low level cold either.

 

Yeah, fantasy patterns have been the flavor of the winter.  It just never quite materializes as shown...

 

I do think a storm comes out of the SW low of doom (persistance, like the last storm),....but I agree I bet the ridge is not quite strong or high enough to get us strong enough high pressures in place.  That and probably an inland tract.  Probably be another nice cold rain event for superbowl parties.  :underthewx:

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We need a second great Euro run... 

This is my only thought right now....

Everything is caving to the Euro with the blizzard today and tomorrow. Pretty incredible when you think it was basically on its own and all the other models are coming back. Long live the king. It's too bad that the LR Euro is, umm, not quite as reliable.

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Interesting Euro run, now the NW trend will commence. The 6z GEFS is already to warm.

I am actually more pumped about the tweets from Mike V. (WSI) this morning showing the pattern breaking down, the EPO failing, the strong +AO/+NAO in the day 11+ range. Once this day 7 becomes a cold rain for us that should be it for the winter. Very similar to early Jan where the first week or so was cold then the pattern went to crap the rest of the month, repeat for Feb incoming.

I'm glad it shows that In the 11-15 day period . The good patterns showing between days 11-15 have not verified this winter so hopefully that won't either

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