GaWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Whatever. It's totally Larry's fault. He needs to go back to the lizard, but he won't do it. The Charlie Brown theme was only temporary. Then Chuck got assimilated by the Borg and that was it. Lmao. The problem is that I love Peppermint Patty so much even though I really am a lizard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Since this winter has sucked so bad don't you just want to suck it up and hope for a skunk? Hope for better next year. If it's a <1" snow event that "saves" winter, then I would prefer to be skunked for the extreme weather novelty. Otherwise, I'll take a decent moderate event. NAM and RGEM ticked east, some spichters tightening up north. Do what we do, toss what we don't like hug the biggest, blame it on convective feedback. It's a shame they may only get 15-20. Yeah, looking a bit nervous there in the NYC subforum. We'll see how it goes from here. The NAM and RGEM have NYC right on the line with NJ across the Hudson River more in the 6" range while Long Island-proper is approaching 2'. Tight cutoff. There will be some cries from those who are on the wrong side of that line. Looks like they're tossing the NAM and RGEM for now... we'll see how the other models come in. The 18z GFS was even further east. And the 12z ECMWF was about 24-36". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You all got snow in March 2009 and 2010. BTW, it is definitely getting time to start throwing around some ridiculous analogs like March 1960, March 1980, and then when those fail, we start bringing up March 1981 and March 1983 analogs... then when those fail, we start bringing up April 1915 and April 1983 analogs... Nothing compares to the March 1927 analog, warm for the entirety of the winter, then "seemingly" out of nowhere @ the last second comes a healthy dose of arctic air in late February that later helps to ignite what still remains (IMO) the biggest snowstorm in NC east of the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nothing compares to the March 1927 analog, warm for the entirety of the winter, then "seemingly" out of nowhere @ the last second comes a healthy dose of arctic air in late February that later helps to ignite what still remains (IMO) the biggest snowstorm in NC east of the mountains... Atlanta got 0.6" of SN/IP from that 3/1-2/1927 storm...pretty good for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 denial will kill us all but winter weather is about over for us. Yes we can watch run after run but all fade away in the end. This has been the worst I have ever seen models do and don't see them getting better before winter is over. They haven't been right year and every met has missed this winter. Not one got it right. We still got a few weeks to get lucky but better be some major changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If it's a <1" snow event that "saves" winter, then I would prefer to be skunked for the extreme weather novelty. Otherwise, I'll take a decent moderate event. Yeah, looking a bit nervous there in the NYC subforum. We'll see how it goes from here. The NAM and RGEM have NYC right on the line with NJ across the Hudson River more in the 6" range while Long Island-proper is approaching 2'. Tight cutoff. There will be some cries from those who are on the wrong side of that line. Looks like they're tossing the NAM and RGEM for now... we'll see how the other models come in. The 18z GFS was even further east. And the 12z ECMWF was about 24-36". Euro is always a tick to far west at this range. I would blend the RGEM and Euro. Hopefully the GFS ticks west to calm the masses. Nothing worse than being on the fringe, terrible feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro is always a tick to far west at this range. I would blend the RGEM and Euro. Hopefully the GFS ticks west to calm the masses. Nothing worse than being on the fringe, terrible feeling. Looks like our man Phil is dropping some knowledge into the NYC subforum, too. Miss having him here, though I suppose he'll show up when/if we get something notable wintry-weather wise again. And okay Webber, I'll throw the March 1927 weenie analog into the mix, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Atlanta got 0.6" of SN/IP from that 3/1-2/1927 storm...pretty good for March. Yeah, that's not bad, but doesn't even compare to what was observed in central & eastern NC... An all-out blizzard w/ thundersnow & a widespread region of totals exceeding 2 feet, & as stated before Nashville, NC east of Raleigh was the big winner w/ 31" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Looks like our man Phil is dropping some knowledge into the NYC subforum, too. Miss having him here, though I suppose he'll show up when/if we get something notable wintry-weather wise again. And okay Webber, I'll throw the March 1927 weenie analog into the mix, too! GFS ticked east from its previous run. Looks like NYC right at .75" qpf while Euro had over 2". That may be high but I bet .75" is to low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 GFS ticked east from its previous run. Looks like NYC right at .75" qpf while Euro had over 2". That may be high but I bet .75" is to low.They showed an animated model on TWC earlier, don't know which one, but it really looked like a few bands for NYC proper, but solid , long duration type stuff for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I have to disagree with those who say the models have been terrible this year. The only thing decent we've had to track has been in pure fantasy land. The models haven't shown anything remotely close to a winter storm for this part of NC and for very good reason. I'm still hoping to see one or two chances by the end of February and I think it will happen. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I take it the gfs was a crap shoot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I take it the gfs was a crap shoot? It's not far enough for our concern yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I have to disagree with those who say the models have been terrible this year. The only thing decent we've had to track has been in pure fantasy land. The models haven't shown anything remotely close to a winter storm for this part of NC and for very good reason. I'm still hoping to see one or two chances by the end of February and I think it will happen. TW I've only been paying close attention recently so I really don't know. However, there is a HECS forming off the coast right now that is going to absolutely bury someone in snow. 72 hours ago NO model had it. It may be an anomaly, but that's pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ok thanks i can't look from my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I take it the gfs was a crap shoot?Early on, clipper around the 30th to our north, is bringing down some cold, just need our storm to kick out and keep moving, we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Let see if the gfs can move it any.. the 12z euro wanted to so badly.. thanks for the update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 normally I only root against dc/mid atlantic but... It's really hard not to root against a location when people are openly whining and complaining about getting a foot of snow instead of 2 feet. It's like the rich kids complaining about who got the least expensive sports car for their 16th birthday. Meanwhile down here in the slums, my biggest excitement so far this winter is a blizzard of flurries back on november 1st that was only a big deal and a significant obstacle if you were a piss ant...and many haven't even gotten that much....in a winter that was supposed to be great back in the summer/fall and .every 7 to 10 days from now this winter. Yep..those poor poor souls in the northeast. I don't know about you but my heart breaks for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 yep, i chased the nov 1st snow in west columbia. saw 4" and heavy snow and it satisfied my snow craving a bit. at least enough that im not losing sleep/my mind over the latest model teases. You know its a bad winter when one of the few places in the south thats gotten measurable snow was the friggen Columbia SC metro area, and it was a day after Halloween to boot...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I've only been paying close attention recently so I really don't know. However, there is a HECS forming off the coast right now that is going to absolutely bury someone in snow. 72 hours ago NO model had it. It may be an anomaly, but that's pretty bad. It seems like that's kind of common up there, though. I don't think the models caught on to the February 2013 NE Blizzard until a few days out, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You know its a bad winter when one of the few places in the south thats gotten measurable snow was the friggen Columbia SC metro area, and it was a day after Halloween to boot...... Nah, a really bad winter is when not a flake falls in ga or sc. Hell at least we had a couple of respectable cold shots, unlike some years. So Despite all the complaints, this winter is not nor is it going to be the worst for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nah, a really bad winter is when not a flake falls in ga or sc. Hell at least we had a couple of respectable cold shots, unlike some years. So Despite all the complaints, this winter is not nor is it going to be the worst for us. You are correct sir. Although, i feel if nothing else falls, There will be a Chernobyl style meltdown in the Tar Heel State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I have only experienced blizzard conditions twice. It's so cool. One blizzard was the 10 inch snowstorm and the other was one where we only picked up like an inch after hours of blizzard conditions. I remember that was the storm where Jim Cantore had frostbite on his nose and he didn't even notice until someone said something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I hope the Red Cross provides grief counseling for those folks expecting 2'+ and only get 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nah, a really bad winter is when not a flake falls in ga or sc. Hell at least we had a couple of respectable cold shots, unlike some years. So Despite all the complaints, this winter is not nor is it going to be the worst for us. It could be the worst in terms of snow. I've never gone a winter without seeing at least a few flakes. Even in horrible winters like 05-06, 06-07, 11-12, 12-13 I at least saw a few flakes. I'm not even asking for accumulating snow at this point. How hard is it to just get a few stray snowflakes ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 id love to be in the ne forum if the euro comes out with 10 inches.. its crazy they are having a meltdown over 12 inches vs 30 or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I have only experienced blizzard conditions twice. It's so cool. One blizzard was the 10 inch snowstorm and the other was one where we only picked up like an inch after hours of blizzard conditions. I remember that was the storm where Jim Cantore had frostbite on his nose and he didn't even notice until someone said something. That's two more times than me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 normally I only root against dc/mid atlantic but... It's really hard not to root against a location when people are openly whining and complaining about getting a foot of snow instead of 2 feet. It's like the rich kids complaining about who got the least expensive sports car for their 16th birthday. Meanwhile down here in the slums, my biggest excitement so far this winter is a blizzard of flurries back on november 1st that was only a big deal and a significant obstacle if you were a piss ant...and many haven't even gotten that much....in a winter that was supposed to be great back in the summer/fall and .every 7 to 10 days from now this winter. Yep..those poor poor souls in the northeast. I don't know about you but my heart breaks for them. You get spoiled once from one blizzard where you got x inches or feet of snow, once the next opportunity swings around, you automatically expect to meet or exceed what you got the last time. I'm glad I don't lurk around in the MA/NE threads, I would probably flip the freak out if I saw anyone there having a temper tantrum over getting 1 foot of snow instead of 2 or 3. Do they not know the unimaginable things I would do just to get a good measurable snowfall without fail on a yearly basis, let alone 1-3 feet from a blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What a nightmare the blizzard will be to forecast if the Euro holds. I mean it really doesn't have any support, but it's the Euro. Also, it found the storm first and has been the most consistent model by far. I would imagine there are a lot of mets in the NE just hoping it caves because this is basically an impossible forecast if it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 That's two more times than me! James, There's something that has been really bothering me the last few days. Do you still have faith in the flakes? Please tell me you do, please? If you don't, I'd rather you not tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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