superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well I was able to play tennis today in shorts and a tshirt. If we can't get snow let the weekends be like this. Yesterday afternoon wasn't bad either. I went on a 35 mile bike ride this morning w/ just a single layer on. Gave me a taste of spring. This conversation is depressing... ------------ I'm sitting here watching TWC for the first time in years. I'm so jealous of what the NE is going to get. It's almost sickening to try to look at a model for our week off fantasy storm-that-isn't when the NE is about to get real snow tomorrow. Oh, well, I'm following along with the NE and NYC threads now. It's always interesting to follow these historic storms, even if you aren't in an affected region, IMO. I hope they get destroyed. There's really no jealousy as far as the NE is concerned. They're way out of our league as far as snowfall climatology is concerned. It's not like the Mid-Atlantic where I usually get slightly irritated to miss out while they get crushed since our climates are not that different (DC averages about 180% of this area, so it's a lot more, but not THAT much more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Honestly, I simply do not buy that something could pop up quickly and hit us with the current pattern parameters we have. People keep saying that but overrunning, slow storms are what is going to produce in this pattern. Those don't magically show up overnight. They never have and they never will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Good deal man. It'll probably be grilling weather this weekend. What are you going to grill out first?used it last night and today. Burgers and dogs last night, chicken today. It's one of the infrared grills. Works really well! softball season is starting for my daughters, prepare for cold and blowing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Honestly, I simply do not buy that something could pop up quickly and hit us with the current pattern parameters we have. People keep saying that but overrunning, slow storms are what is going to produce in this pattern. Those don't magically show up overnight. They never have and they never will. I agree...I think the book is closing on this one. It's so sad to see where the pattern has gone on the models over the past 3 days. For once, I'd like to see a trend go our way on the models instead of always against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Hopefully, somebody will submit a century old snowstorm somewhere in the world that correlates to the current pattern to show it will bring us snow.your reminding me of the great Puerto Rico blizzard of 1732. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This conversation is depressing... ------------ It's almost sickening to try to look at a model for our week off fantasy storm-that-isn't when the NE is about to get real snow tomorrow. Oh, well, I'm following along with the NE and NYC threads now. It's always interesting to follow these historic storms, even if you aren't in an affected region, IMO. I hope they get destroyed. There's really no jealousy as far as the NE is concerned. They're way out of our league as far as snowfall climatology is concerned. It's not like the Mid-Atlantic where I usually get slightly irritated to miss out while they get crushed since our climates are not that different (DC averages about 180% of this area, so it's a lot more, but not THAT much more). the cities of new England are equal to or less the higher mtns near the Tennessee border in nc. Unfortunately, I think some here in the mtns will finish the season below average. Does anyone know how many times, if at all that has happened in a +enso and +pdo year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 This conversation is depressing... ------------ It's almost sickening to try to look at a model for our week off fantasy storm-that-isn't when the NE is about to get real snow tomorrow. Oh, well, I'm following along with the NE and NYC threads now. It's always interesting to follow these historic storms, even if you aren't in an affected region, IMO. I hope they get destroyed. There's really no jealousy as far as the NE is concerned. They're way out of our league as far as snowfall climatology is concerned. It's not like the Mid-Atlantic where I usually get slightly irritated to miss out while they get crushed since our climates are not that different (DC averages about 180% of this area, so it's a lot more, but not THAT much more). These are not bad things! I have on good authority, that our best storms come after a few warm days in winter, so the other shoe will drop next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I agree...I think the book is closing on this one. It's so sad to see where the pattern has gone on the models over the past 3 days. For once, I'd like to see a trend go our way on the models instead of always against us. I hope we're wrong but I've never seen an overrunning event magically appear within 5 days. We'll see if something pops in the next 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Honestly, I simply do not buy that something could pop up quickly and hit us with the current pattern parameters we have. People keep saying that but overrunning, slow storms are what is going to produce in this pattern. Those don't magically show up overnight. They never have and they never will. I agree yet the Ne blizzard just showed 72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I agree yet the Ne blizzard just showed 72 hours out What in the sam hell does that have to do with an overrunning event? You're out of your depth here if you struggle that much with reading comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 These are not bad things! I have on good authority, that our best storms come after a few warm days in winter, so the other shoe will drop next weekend! Quit trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What in the sam hell does that have to do with an overrunning event? You're out of your depth here if you struggle that much with reading comprehension. No need to be so rude and combative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Quit trolling.This clipper is just setting the table for the next clipper, that will be setting the stage, for the next clipper , that will lay the groundwork, for the Groundhog Day storm, that will give us the cold rain, that always comes the last 10 days of January. Quit whining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 What in the sam hell does that have to do with an overrunning event? You're out of your depth here if you struggle that much with reading comprehension. It actually has a lot to do w/ our overrunning event, the main issue w/ the guidance (even the European suite) was their poor handling of the subtropical energy in the Northeastern Pacific... The trough that is currently sitting off California was forecasted by the Euro ensembles to be halfway between North America & Hawaii about a week ago. However, once they properly adjusted northeastward w/ this piece of energy within the last few days, this led to a dramatic change in the output as the trough increased the amplification of the streamflow across N America, & led to higher frequency waves, ultimately leading to a much sharper trough off the US eastern seaboard w/ a powerful cut-off ULL, instead of a more progressive/passive disturbance that only amplified modestly as it pressed on into the North Atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NWS calling for daytime temps well into the 40s for all of next week, Looks like it will be much to warm for any snow accumulation next weekend. BTW, almost all of my spring flower bulbs have sprouted and the crocus are well on the way to blooming. Hello Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NWS calling for daytime temps well into the 40s for all of next week, Looks like it will be much to warm for any snow accumulation next weekend. BTW, almost all of my spring flower bulbs have sprouted and the crocus are well on the way to blooming. Hello Spring! robins here a month early and azaleas on the bloom a month early as well ... oh well, there's always next ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It actually has a lot to do w/ our overrunning event, the main issue w/ the guidance (even the European suite) was their poor handling of the subtropical energy in the Northeastern Pacific... The trough that is currently sitting off California was forecasted by the Euro ensembles to be halfway between North America & Hawaii about a week ago. However, once they properly adjusted northeastward w/ this piece of energy within the last few days, this led to a dramatic change in the output as the trough increased the amplification of the streamflow across N America, & led to higher frequency waves, ultimately leading to a much sharper trough off the US eastern seaboard w/ a powerful cut-off ULL, instead of a more progressive/passive disturbance that only amplified modestly as it pressed on into the North Atlantic... My point is, overrunning events don't magically pop up. Dynamic events, clippers bombing out, etc do. Since I've been posting in 2002, I have never seen an overrunning event show up inside the 5 day window. Those are events that you track long term. PDII, January 2010, January 2011, Feb 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 robins here a month early and azaleas on the bloom a month early as well ... oh well, there's always next ... The robins never really left Raleigh this winter...that should have been a hint of how warm this winter was going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Queencity and myself were just discussing that we've never seen a overrunning event just pop up. It has nothing to do w/ the current nor'easter. I agree w/ Queencity in that you usually see an overrunning event on the models well in advance. I would love to hear if anybody has an example of a overrunning event that popped up in lets say 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah overrunning events are fairly well modeled. The storm coming up is a "phased" system that ultimately gets captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Queencity and myself were just discussing that we've never seen a overrunning event just pop up. It has nothing to do w/ the current nor'easter. I agree w/ Queencity in that you usually see an overrunning event on the models well in advance. I would love to hear if anybody has an example of a overrunning event that popped up in lets say 3 days.Yeah, I don't think it's very typical. I'd like to see the modeling shift towards what the Canadian showed at 12z sooner rather than later if we're going to have a shot at this.Wasn't Feb 04 overrunning, as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah, I don't think it's very typical. I'd like to see the modeling shift towards what the Canadian showed at 12z sooner rather than later if we're going to have a shot at this.it would be nice. But our luck this winter has been terrible. I'm at the point now where I would like to be lucky than be in a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah, I don't think it's very typical. I'd like to see the modeling shift towards what the Canadian showed at 12z sooner rather than later if we're going to have a shot at this. Wasn't Feb 04 overrunning, as well? 04 was kind of both. It had an overrunning front end thump plus the dynamic end to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Yeah, I don't think it's very typical. I'd like to see the modeling shift towards what the Canadian showed at 12z sooner rather than later if we're going to have a shot at this. Wasn't Feb 04 overrunning, as well? I thought the 12z euro and gfs did take a step towards the cmc. Hopefully we'll see that trend continue over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Queencity and myself were just discussing that we've never seen a overrunning event just pop up. It has nothing to do w/ the current nor'easter. I agree w/ Queencity in that you usually see an overrunning event on the models well in advance. I would love to hear if anybody has an example of a overrunning event that popped up in lets say 3 days. This major winter storm for the NE has been modeled as a strong clipper for several days now, like Webber said its grown deeper to say the least but it's not like a piece of energy magically appeared yesterday. It's been modeled for a week or so. For the day 8 potential the CMC ejects the SS energy day 5-6, gives us an event day 8. So we will know in the next 2-3 days whether the models grow on a consensus to eject it. The Euro does eject it day 9-10 from the freebie maps I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 My point is, overrunning events don't magically pop up. Dynamic events, clippers bombing out, etc do. Since I've been posting in 2002, I have never seen an overrunning event show up inside the 5 day window. Those are events that you track long term. PDII, January 2010, January 2011, Feb 2014. We're still @ the very least 3-4 days outside of this supposed 3-5 day window, and I will say that the adjustments from the 12z European ensemble aren't quite as dramatic (yet) w/ this system in the southwestern US next week, however they are definitely trending in the right direction (which isn't the case the w/ the GFS or GEM ensemble) (how dramatic of a trend we can actually squeeze out is a bigger ?), generally northeastward w/ piece of energy in the southwestern US and stronger & further southwest w/ the large chunk of the polar vortex that is going to dive-bomb into eastern Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This major winter storm for the NE has been modeled as a strong clipper for several days now, like Webber said its grown deeper to say the least but it's not like a piece of energy magically appeared yesterday. It's been modeled for a week or so. For the day 8 potential the CMC ejects the SS energy day 5-6, gives us an event day 8. So we will know in the next 2-3 days whether the models grow on a consensus to eject it. The Euro does eject it day 9-10 from the freebie maps I have. come clean pack, you renewed your subscription the othere. That's why the storm went to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 come clean pack, you renewed your subscription the othere. That's why the storm went to crap. LOL, nope. I just have AMWx and just an hour or so ago looked at the Euro/EPS it has. Still not a bad look on either for day 7-8. I was chatting with CR, if we just had a little luck it wouldn't take much for the Euro to show a winter storm for next Mon/Tuesday. But, our luck sucks so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Based on the snowfall distribution in the various forecasts for the upcoming blizzard in the northeast US, some rather historic NESIS analogs have come to my mind that look relatively similar... For what It's worth, I'll mention that following all of these "similar" events except for the Blizzard of 1978, we had wintry weather on our doorstep in NC within about a week following the conclusion of the selected NE US major snowstorms... Feb 15-16 1969 "Heavy snow in the southwest with heavy glazing in the south central area, tapering off northward with light to none along the Virginia border. Mostly rain in the extreme east. Snow accumulations of up to 20 inches in the southern Mountains. It was a very destructive ice storm along the central South Carolina border and extending into South Carolina. There was wholesale breakage of power and telephone lines and poles. one power company reported 100,000 customers (in the two Carolinas) without electricity for periods of one to several days, and over 2,000 men were required to repair the damage. Heavy steel towers carrying high voltage lines crumpled under the weight of the ice; in one place every tower reported down over a three mile stretch. Many poultry houses and other lightly constructed frame building collapsed under the weight of ice and snow accumulation on roofs; many birds were lost. There were no known deaths or injuries directly caused by the weather, but traffic accidents were numerous and at least one death resulted." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I am happy the NE is getting slammed but I am even happier things start rolling tomorrow and is done by early Wed. Would have sucked to track this for another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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