superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It'll come down to nowcasting, look at that huge shield of precip, much smaller on HRRR. The HRRR and RAP aren't picking up on that isolated thunderstorm over the Florida Strait. That will pull down enough cold air to cause dynamic cooling in our backyards. The models also do not have a handle on the precip rates. It will all come down to rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The system hasn't even moved into the lower 48 yet! It needs to be properly sampled first! That's my favorite one. Guilty as charged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Yes sir, that's a classic! That's my favorite one. Guilty as charged. No doubt. I think it's our favorite calling card. There's probably some truth to it, but not as much merit as we tend to give it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The system hasn't even moved into the lower 48 yet! It needs to be properly sampled first! Granny agrees on properly sampling first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Miller B's suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Max reminds me of Teddy from Prison Break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Glad it wasn't 5 degrees this morning like it was last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Bricks thread got deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Bricks thread got deletedNot getting on Brick but, regardless of how many days out, you need to have the majority of models on board at potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Bricks thread got deleted A little hammer heavy in my opinion, but that's why the mods get paid the big bucks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Which if true, is not cool. Not sure why so much is put on when threads are created. Hold over from the long long ago I guess. Oh well. I say create any thread you want to since, as it stands, their is no rule against it. jmo Bricks thread got deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Which if true, is not cool. Not sure why so much is put on when threads are created. Hold over from the long long ago I guess. Oh well. I say create any thread you want to since, as it stands, their is no rule against it. jmo I agree. This threat seems legit at this range. If it doesn't pan out, the thread will die. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Which if true, is not cool. Not sure why so much is put on when threads are created. Hold over from the long long ago I guess. Oh well. I say create any thread you want to since, as it stands, their is no rule against it. jmo I agree, too much moderating here at times. It seems there are favorites for sure. If posters don't think the thread is relevant, they won't post and it slides down the page. It is the first potential threat, and there is interest. Brad P. just posted about it on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I agree, too much moderating here at times. It seems there are favorites for sure. If posters don't think the thread is relevant, they won't post and it slides down the page. It is the first potential threat, and there is interest. Brad P. just posted about it on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Not sure how I feel.... Something tells me it was an accident. I'm not sure why an entire thread would have been deleted like that. There were some good posts in there and the thread wasn't hurting. If anything the thread would make the pattern discussion one not so ridiculously long....... Mods have a hard and thankless job. I really don't feel like questioning them is right but on the same hand it seems a little ridiculous if the thread was deleted on purpose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 i suppose there are many folks like me that read here but rarely post for this very reason, are there actual "rules" here or just arbitrary nonsense? i see countless violations of the written rules daily here with no action taken, and then a valid threat thread gets deleted with no violation of any rule? more warning points for me i guess for daring to post TRUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Was Brick's thread for the Sun/Mon ZR threat? If many posts are already covering a certain potential event like that one, whether likely to verify or not, that's when a thread on it should be allowed imo so that other threads can cover other things without being drowned out by said potential event. Why should a potential event have to be likely to verify before it can have its own thread? I think one criterion that should make something threadworthy is when there are numerous posts about that subject. Extreme hypothetical example: if a threat of snow in July at Waycross is being addressed by 99% of posts, then that should be allowed its own thread despite its chances of verifying being near 0. Just my opinion. I do agree that moderating is tough and the pay isn't great, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Not sure how I feel.... Something tells me it was an accident. I'm not sure why an entire thread would have been deleted like that. There were some good posts in there and the thread wasn't hurting. If anything the thread would make the pattern discussion one not so ridiculously long....... Mods have a hard and thankless job. I really don't feel like questioning them is right but on the same hand it seems a little ridiculous if the thread was deleted on purpose. I'm wondering if it was meant to get folded into the discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Which if true, is not cool. Not sure why so much is put on when threads are created. Hold over from the long long ago I guess. Oh well. I say create any thread you want to since, as it stands, their is no rule against it. jmo I didn't see the problem either. It's going to get discussed either way, might as well keep it confined to its own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I also don't think Brick's thread should have been deleted. I agree that it was a little soon, but I think it should have been discussed before the deletion. We need to determine when a thread can be generated and I guess who should generated it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This is my assumption also. I'm wondering if it was meant to get folded into the discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 That is screwed up. We haven't had anything to follow all winter. We have something showing inside 7 days. Even if it isn't on all the models, it is still showing and it is inside 7 days. I don't get the big deal for having a separate thread about a specific threat and let the winter discussion thread be about things more than 7 days out and the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Not sure how I feel.... Something tells me it was an accident. I'm not sure why an entire thread would have been deleted like that. There were some good posts in there and the thread wasn't hurting. If anything the thread would make the pattern discussion one not so ridiculously long....... Mods have a hard and thankless job. I really don't feel like questioning them is right but on the same hand it seems a little ridiculous if the thread was deleted on purpose. I thought it was a little early for a thread but once it got started, there were interesting posts that I was learning from. I hope it can be put back but locked, if they didn't want it open yet, for reading purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I thought it was a little early for a thread but once it got started, there were interesting posts that I was learning from. I hope it can be put back but locked, if they didn't want it open yet, for reading purposes. Good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I thought it was a little early for a thread but once it got started, there were interesting posts that I was learning from. I hope it can be put back but locked, if they didn't want it open yet, for reading purposes. Why would it have to be locked? It is still an evolving system and if it becomes something, people will post on it. If it doesn't, people won't. I don't see the big deal when it is something people are actually keeping an eye on as having potential inside 7 days. The local NWS offices have already mentioned it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I thought it was a little early for a thread but once it got started, there were interesting posts that I was learning from. I hope it can be put back but locked, if they didn't want it open yet, for reading purposes. Why is it a little early if virtually everyone and their bro has been discussing it for a couple of days already? Also, imo discussing a specific potential wintry precip. event is not so much "pattern discussion" but more like "specific potential event" discussion imo...i.e., not the same thing. I think that the winter pattern discussion thread should have many of its posts talking about things like ensembles, weeklies, indices, analogs, overall model trends past, say 7 days, etc. If 90% of the posts in the winter pattern thread become devoted to the weekend ZR threat, that's the time imo for it to have its own thread. Otherwise, actual winter "pattern" posts get drowned out too easily. Again, that being said, I realize moderating isn't easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Why is it a little early if virtually everyone and their bro has been discussing it for a couple of days already? Also, imo discussing a specific potential wintry precip. event is not so much "pattern discussion" but more like "specific potential event" discussion imo...i.e., not the same thing I think that the winter pattern discussion thread should have many of its posts talking about things like ensembles, weeklies, indices, analogs, overall model trends past, say 7 days, etc. If 90% of the posts in the winter pattern thread become devoted to the weekend ZR threat, that's the time imo for it to have its own thread. Otherwise, actual winter "pattern" posts get drowned out too easily. Again, that being said, I realize moderating isn't easy. That was my thinking, too. That's why I started the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Should be up an active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Why is it a little early if virtually everyone and their bro has been discussing it for a couple of days already? Also, imo discussing a specific potential wintry precip. event is not so much "pattern discussion" but more like "specific potential event" discussion imo...i.e., not the same thing I think that the winter pattern discussion thread should have many of its posts talking about things like ensembles, weeklies, indices, analogs, overall model trends past, say 7 days, etc. If 90% of the posts in the winter pattern thread become devoted to the weekend ZR threat, that's the time imo for it to have its own thread. Otherwise, actual winter "pattern" posts get drowned out too easily. Again, that being said, I realize moderating isn't easy. Can't make everyone happy. Read the first posts in the thread. I even got an e-mail about deleting it. Personally I favor the 5 day rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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