tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You think so? My gut instinct senses a new trend, but having been on this carnival ride of models in the past I'm also thinking wild swings might be afoot. Could be a crazy weekend of modeling coming up. This is one of those times when you are glad it's 8+ days away. The solutions it is spitting out are not going to be right, so rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think the Super Bowl storm is turning into a super dud. Funny how the models get it right when it shows nothing this far out, but usually wrong when it shows a big winter storm. We don't really have a shot unless it shows up on the models for the first time inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't know for some reason that whole SW cutoff fixture looks pretty robust and fixed. Plus it looks like both the GFS and EURO agree on it. I would think the models have to change pretty substantially to get us back in the game IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think I have found myself a mission. I am going to try to keep track of when a potential winter storm first shows up on the models, and then see how many days out it can get the storm right if the storm actually happens. Then it could give us a good idea of how far out a storm can first show on the models and end up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is one of those times when you are glad it's 8+ days away. The solutions it is spitting out are not going to be right, so rejoice. At this range suppression is good, once it gets to far NW it rarely trends back south. GEFS is hinting at something day 9+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 At this range suppression is good, once it gets to far NW it rarely trends back south. GEFS is hinting at something day 9+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think I have found myself a mission. I am going to try to keep track of when a potential winter storm first shows up on the models, and then see how many days out it can get the storm right if the storm actually happens. Then it could give us a good idea of how far out a storm can first show on the models and end up happening. A quick question... Don't you have to look at the models to determine when a winter storm first shows up? If not your whole exercise is based on hearsay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 A quick question... Don't you have to look at the models to determine when a winter storm first shows up? If not your whole exercise is based on hearsay. That's what this place is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't know for some reason that whole SW cutoff fixture looks pretty robust and fixed. Plus it looks like both the GFS and EURO agree on it. I would think the models have to change pretty substantially to get us back in the game IMO.It's not going to be sitting there and burying on every run between now and Feb 2 , on any model. That's one positive, there will be good runs, it couldn't get any worse than today's ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think I have found myself a mission. I am going to try to keep track of when a potential winter storm first shows up on the models, and then see how many days out it can get the storm right if the storm actually happens. Then it could give us a good idea of how far out a storm can first show on the models and end up happening. Are you for real? Claiming this for my sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Heck, why have tv? When i got American Weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Are you for real? Claiming this for my sig So, I'll take it the exam today went well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Are you for real? Claiming this for my sig Fo' real, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 So, I'll take it the exam today went well lol It went ok...definitely getting some senioritis in my last semester of didactic work. Studying is getting oldddd after a decade of college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 I think I have found myself a mission. I am going to try to keep track of when a potential winter storm first shows up on the models, and then see how many days out it can get the storm right if the storm actually happens. Then it could give us a good idea of how far out a storm can first show on the models and end up happening.Put it on an excel spreadsheet, and share with us!Such ambitions for someone who can't read a model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It went ok...definitely getting some senioritis in my last semester of didactic work. Studying is getting oldddd after a decade of college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It went ok...definitely getting some senioritis in my last semester of didactic work. Studying is getting oldddd after a decade of college. A decade of college Gracie? Please tell me we're talking post grad, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 A decade of college Gracie? Please tell me we're talking post grad, right? In a year or so from now we'll be referring to him as "Dr. Jon" and if you need meds due to stress from excessive model watching he'll be allowed to fill you a good Rx ---> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Put it on an excel spreadsheet, and share with us! Such ambitions for someone who can't read a model! Excel...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!! Good one, Mack. Hahaha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Put it on an excel spreadsheet, and share with us! Such ambitions for someone who can't read a model! Some things are taken literally here - you sure you want to encourage a string of spreadsheets in addition to everything else we have to weed through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 You know people need to take a break when your browsing two different forums posting the same thing on each of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Some things are taken literally here - you sure you want to encourage a string of spreadsheets in addition to everything else we have to weed through Huh huh huh you said weed huh huh huh huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Huh huh huh you said weed huh huh huh huh you're quicker than most .... They'll stone you when you're trying to be so good They'll stone you just like they said they would They'll stone you when you're trying to get the weather They'll stone you when there's nothin' better But I would not feel so all alone Everybody must get ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Huh huh huh you said weed huh huh huh huhlol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I love me some Bojangles. They have good biscuits. Love me some Bojangles as well. Great fried chicken and some awesome sausage biscuits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It sure got quiet quick. . I guess everyone is waiting for 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It sure got quiet quick. . I guess everyone is waiting for 0zNo. They were waiting for me to arrive. I'm here guys. You can start posting again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No. They were waiting for me to arrive. I'm here guys. You can start posting again! Sup. Shall we chat about the snow/sleet moving through N MS, N AL, and W TN tonight? Looks like a screwjob is ongoing in NOVA. WSWs hoisted with just sleet falling mixing with rain... Winchester has been all liquid so far, it appears, despite being under a WSW for 3-6". Maybe it'll turn around. Rough. What a terrible storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Sup. Shall we chat about the snow/sleet moving through N MS, N AL, and W TN tonight? Looks like a screwjob is ongoing in NOVA. WSWs hoisted with just sleet falling mixing with rain... Winchester has been all liquid so far, it appears, despite being under a WSW for 3-6". Maybe it'll turn around. Rough. What a terrible storm! Yeah we can lol. Our temperature just sky rocketed up to 71 degrees. No snow/sleet here. Well we do have a chance at sleet because snowstorm2011 got sleet in 50 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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