January Banter

[packbacker]

Even though the day 10+ storm is gone, never fear, in a few days a new day 10 storm will appear.

Only 36 more days till March.

[GaWx]

I've been on weather boards for years and love winter weather events.  If you're a winter lover like myself, I don't care what you say on the board, deep down you're disappointed when the models shift like today.  Can things change in future runs? Sure.  But you see that foot of snow the models were giving you yesterday taken away today, you can't help but to feel some disappointment.  Of course, this is just my opinion.  If this makes me a weenie so be it.  At least I'm an honest weenie.

 

 

 I do think that long range solutions that put down a massive amount of SN in the SE (say close to a foot+ outside of the mountains and perhaps GSO) should almost always be dismissed as pure fantasy with extremely high odds against it in the long range based on climo, which shows that they're the rare exception rather than the rule. Actually, a place like Atlanta has none on record since 1879! A place like RDU has had a couple but we're talking only a once a mutidecade type of occurrence. These extreme solutions do not do much other than result in disappointment when they don't materialize. The problem is that some people buy into them as a reasonable possibility. OTOH, a run that gives, say 4-10" (still major) is much more reasonable (especially the 4-8" range) and shouldn't normally be dismissed as an extreme dream.

[superjames1992]

I have never seen a storm modeled from 240 hours plus get reeled in.

I have. March 1, 2009, for one.

[Brick Tamland]

I have never seen a storm modeled from 240 hours plus get reeled in.  

 

I wonder how often it just goes away versus going away and then coming back down the road. Or is it better for nothing to show up until about 3 to 5 days beforehand?

[rduwx]

Better to have a fantasy storm slip through your fingers than an actual "real storm" right ?

 

LOL...So true.  And I've a few of those also.  The most disappointing was Dec. 2000.

[WXinCanton]

We have those here at work almost daily. 

 

 

DDOS attacks make me money.   I love selling F5

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm cautiously optimistic. I doubt we've seen the last of the storm on the models, and I'm hopeful that subsequent runs come back better than ever. However, I'm a little worried about the situation because what the models are showing, with the magnitude of cold forcing the moisture south, is certainly a viable solution. Time will tell.

[WXinCanton]

I have. March 1, 2009, for one.

 

It was never lost?  On any of the runs from 10 days out. 

[superjames1992]

It was never lost? On any of the runs from 10 days out.

Oh, I didn't realize you meant that. It's hard to get 40 consecutive runs of a storm. It was probably lost at some point.

[WXinCanton]

I wonder how often it just goes away versus going away and then coming back down the road. Or is it better for nothing to show up until about 3 to 5 days beforehand?

 

That is what I mean. I have never seen a model nail an event from 240 without big changes and not losing it.

 

(Can't believe I agree with Brick)

[Brick Tamland]

I'm cautiously optimistic. I doubt we've seen the last of the storm on the models, and I'm hopeful that subsequent runs come back better than ever. However, I'm a little worried about the situation because what the models are showing, with the magnitude of cold forcing the moisture south, is certainly a viable solution. Time will tell.

 

You have to hate it when the reason you don't have snow is because it's too cold for the precip to get here.

[Cold Rain]

There is way to much lamenting over a 10 day snowstorm.

[Brick Tamland]

There is way to much lamenting over a 10 day snowstorm.

 

It hasn't exactly been a great winter. 

[CherokeeGA]

There is way to much lamenting over a 10 day snowstorm.

 

Bored people are bored.

 

It's really been boring, weather-wise, for like 10 months or so now.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

It hasn't exactly been a great winter. 

Yeah people are desperate and starting to panic. Nobody wants to get shut out.

[Cold Rain]

It hasn't exactly been a great winter.

 

 

Bored people are bored.

 

It's really been boring, weather-wise, for like 10 months or so now.

Yeah, I agree. It's been incredibly boring. But 10 day storms rarely work out as initially shown. As bad as it's been, that expectation should not change. If the models are right and we're headed into a colder regime, there will be chances. We don't need to track them in from 10 days. They'll pop up. My biggest concern isn't whether a SW piece of energy comes out 10 days from now. It's getting a favorable pattern to deliver cold into the SE.

[packbacker]

There is way to much lamenting over a 10 day snowstorm.

 

Yep, we have seen this like how many times now.  There is a reason we have had 10 inches of snow total over the past 14 winters months (30% of climo in almost 5 winters).  Meanwhile the MA is going to get 10" of snow in about 2 weeks this month just from renegade clippers.

[metalicwx366]

That is what I mean. I have never seen a model nail an event from 240 without big changes and not losing it.

(Can't believe I agree with Brick)

Hurricane Sandy!

[Southern Apps.]

[NC_hailstorm]

No faith in the old SE Ridge?It's still lurking close enough by.

It won't get squashed,suppressed,or meat grinded if there's higher heights south of us..Look what happened today,no storm to a cold rain in 3 days.

[El Kabong]

Here are the weather models going for the infamous "nail the storm in 10+ days".....all eyes are watching to see if they can clear the bar. 

 

[rduwx]

 I do think that long range solutions that put down a massive amount of SN in the SE (say close to a foot+ outside of the mountains and perhaps GSO) should almost always be dismissed as pure fantasy with extremely high odds against it in the long range based on climo, which shows that they're the rare exception rather than the rule. Actually, a place like Atlanta has none on record since 1879! A place like RDU has had a couple but we're talking only a once a mutidecade type of occurrence. These extreme solutions do not do much other than result in disappointment when they don't materialize. The problem is that some people buy into them as a reasonable possibility. OTOH, a run that gives, say 4-10" (still major) is much more reasonable (especially the 4-8" range) and shouldn't normally be dismissed as an extreme dream.

 

Hey Larry...I agree completely but there is always that small part of you that hopes it can happen.  Now realistically I know the odds are not in my favor.  After following weather and models for 10 years I know how the game is played but there will always be a small part of me that "hopes" it'll happen.

[Brick Tamland]

Hey Larry...I agree completely but there is always that small part of you that hopes it can happen.  Now realistically I know the odds are not in my favor.  After following weather and models for 10 years I know how the game is played but there will always be a small part of me that "hopes" it'll happen.

 

I would be happy right now if we can just get a good event, like 4 inches of snow. Right now that doesn't seem likely just based on today's runs. Plenty of time for it to change, but I am not encouraged.

[magpiemaniac]

When the models are showing a SE blizzard 10+ days out, just assume that...

 

[superjames1992]

Thus is the worst first half of winter of my life besides 2011-2012. I don't have a ton of years to draw from, but this is just awful. Fab Feb might save us, but most of us haven't even seen snow fall yet, which is a joke. There's no sugarcoating it. At least 2011-2012 was warm, so it was comfortable outside.

[jburns]

2014-15 will be known as, The Ten Day Winter.

[packbacker]

Thus is the worst first half of winter of my life besides 2011-2012. I don't have a ton of years to draw from, but this is just awful. Fab Feb might save us, but most of us haven't even seen snow fall yet, which is a joke. There's no sugarcoating it. At least 2011-2012 was warm, so it was comfortable outside.

It's nice to have company. Time for Lucy to have a white flag in her hand. We knew how this was going to end.

[packbacker]

Thus is the worst first half of winter of my life besides 2011-2012. I don't have a ton of years to draw from, but this is just awful. Fab Feb might save us, but most of us haven't even seen snow fall yet, which is a joke. There's no sugarcoating it. At least 2011-2012 was warm, so it was comfortable outside.

Good news is next winter should be a repeat of 11/12. #pacflip

[Brick Tamland]

When the models are showing a SE blizzard 10+ days out, just assume that...

 

 

 

Like I said, it was like the popular pretty girl in high school acting like she liked the nerd just to play some mean joke on him.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

 I do think that long range solutions that put down a massive amount of SN in the SE (say close to a foot+ outside of the mountains and perhaps GSO) should almost always be dismissed as pure fantasy with extremely high odds against it in the long range based on climo, which shows that they're the rare exception rather than the rule. Actually, a place like Atlanta has none on record since 1879! A place like RDU has had a couple but we're talking only a once a mutidecade type of occurrence. These extreme solutions do not do much other than result in disappointment when they don't materialize. The problem is that some people buy into them as a reasonable possibility. OTOH, a run that gives, say 4-10" (still major) is much more reasonable (especially the 4-8" range) and shouldn't normally be dismissed as an extreme dream.

That's crazy. How does Atlanta not have a foot of snow in any storm in 135 years ? Even Birmingham and Macon and Columbia have had storms of that magnitude. I think even Columbus has had one too. Has Charleston or Savannah had storms of a foot or greater ? Maybe one of these days Atlanta's 1,000' + elevation will come in handy.