Webberweather53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Webber - You throw that down here my way and I'll drive to NC and buy you whatever beverage is allowed. Promise. Phil The Waycross forcefield was also present in 1989. Notice how we only got 1.6 inches and all the surrounding locations got 2-4 inches. Since its always warmer here than surrounding locations, it took the snow longer to accumulate because of warmer ground temps than surrounding locations. Lol, well the other big one in your neck of the woods was the Blizzard of 1899, snow reported all the way down to Fort Myers, blizzard conditions on the west coast of FL from ocean effect snow... Looks like Waycross picked up about 3 inches in that one & judging by the reports from this storm it likely came down fast & furious w/ quite a bit of wind and temperatures fell near & below 0F in Waycross following its passage... Here's the link to this paper (thanks Phil for leading me to this) that contains the graphics I posted above & others by Kocin et aI, I thought it would interest you & others on this forum... http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281988%29003%3C0305%3ATGAOAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Here's another one I ran across recently... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tae/pdf/research/NWS%20Significant%20Snowfall%20Events%20in%20Tallahassee.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Lol, well the other big one in your neck of the woods was the Blizzard of 1899, snow reported all the way down to Fort Myers, blizzard conditions on the west coast of FL from ocean effect snow... Looks like Waycross picked up about 3 inches in that one & judging by the reports from this storm it likely came down fast & furious w/ quite a bit of wind and temperatures fell near & below 0F in Waycross following its passage... Here's the link to this paper (thanks Phil for leading me to this) that contains the graphics I posted above & others by Kocin et aI, I thought it would interest you & others on this forum... http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281988%29003%3C0305%3ATGAOAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Here's another one I ran across recently... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tae/pdf/research/NWS%20Significant%20Snowfall%20Events%20in%20Tallahassee.pdf I'll take Blizzard of 1899 and my 16 to 18 inches of snow and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This Superbowl Supersnow event...I mean...is this it? Is it the one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This Superbowl Supersnow event...I mean...is this it? Is it the one? I hope so... what could possibly go wrong? Hoping no one takes the air out of our footballs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This Superbowl Clipper event...I mean...is this it? Is it the one? FYP, based on the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well that threat went down real quick... trends are not looking good right now... I think alot of people are going to get sucked in again just to be chewed up and spit out... This winter has been ruthless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just grasping at straws here, but didn't the GFS overall handle the current system better than the EURO? Yikes. Can't believe I'm trying to find reasons to pick the GFS/GEM over the EURO. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well that threat went down real quick... trends are not looking good right now... I think alot of people are going to get sucked in again just to be chewed up and spit out... This winter has been ruthlessIMO, trends only matter inside the five day window. Everything else is horseshoes and hand grenades. This is a 9-10+ system. Anything is on the table. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL@ emotional model surfing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL@ emotional model surfing240 hour op runs are emotional roller-coaster's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 240 hour op runs are emotional roller-coaster's. Absolutely. Folks are on edge around here. WE JUST WANT SOMETHING REAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I really hope the Euro is not right. I can't go through another weekend of rain and temps in the 40s and then next weekend be bitter cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I really hope the Euro is not right. I can't go through another weekend of rain and temps in the 40s and then next weekend be bitter cold and dry. It is man. It's over. Too bad too. It was a nice setup. Increased mountain torque near the dateline is tanking the RNA, which forces convection to retreat along the -30 - -60 VP flux layer, which then raises the SOI just enough to retrograde the SW low off the Baja. The Euro is the best model with dateline mountain torque anomalies, so you have to give it a nod in this situation, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 *snicker* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I really hope the Euro is not right. I can't go through another weekend of rain and temps in the 40s and then next weekend be bitter cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I said earlier that this fantasy storm wouldn't materialize. Never get your hopes up because winter in the south is a cruel mistress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 LOL@ emotional model surfing Model chasing is not for the weak-hearted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Model chasing is not for the weak-hearted.Hey isohume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hey isohume. Hey! I know folks like to bash the models when they dont pan out for some event, but I think the models have done what they are supposed to do. Provide guidance and give a degree of confidence. There have been many low confidence events in the mid range this winter, which in fact have been the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It is man. It's over. Too bad too. It was a nice setup. Increased mountain torque near the dateline is tanking the RNA, which forces convection to retreat along the -30 - -60 VP flux layer, which then raises the SOI just enough to retrograde the SW low off the Baja. The Euro is the best model with dateline mountain torque anomalies, so you have to give it a nod in this situation, unfortunately. I think Cold Rain is giving Tony (dsaur) a run for funniest poster. CR, thanks for keeping things light-hearted and for many LOL moments. I look forward to your insight, and humor! P.S. - Tony, I hope your posts will increase with the threat of a possible early February sleetfest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think Cold Rain is giving Tony (dsaur) a run for funniest poster. CR, thanks for keeping things light-hearted and for many LOL moments. I look forward to your insight, and humor! P.S. - Tony, I hope your posts will increase with the threat of a possible early February sleetfest! Thanks. If we can't get snow, we might as well have a good time, amirite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Cold Rain - you're starting to sound like Darrell Waltrip and his theory that the cars race around the track so fast that they create a vortex, and said vortex keeps the approaching rain away from the track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hey! I know folks like to bash the models when they dont pan out for some event, but I think the models have done what they are supposed to do. Provide guidance and give a degree of confidence. There have been many low confidence events in the mid range this winter, which in fact have been the right call. Yeah, I don't see how folks expect models to get every little detail right especially this far out. Some folks are trashing the new GFS, when the verification scores say otherwise. Yes it has it flaws, but doesn't every model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah, I don't see how folks expect models to get every little detail right especially this far out. Some folks are trashing the new GFS, when the verification scores say otherwise. Yes it has it flaws, but doesn't every model? True, and they normally don't or can't. I look at it this way, if the dyno models are having a hard time maintaining a solution or have little support from other op models...then this part of the fcst process is low confidence. If there is little or no stat/ens/climo support either or the large scale pattern is at odds with blocking, etc...then the med range fcst will remain low confidence with no heightened mention needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Cold Rain - you're starting to sound like Darrell Waltrip and his theory that the cars race around the track so fast that they create a vortex, and said vortex keeps the approaching rain away from the track! Wait, that doesn't really work?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah, I don't see how folks expect models to get every little detail right especially this far out. Some folks are trashing the new GFS, when the verification scores say otherwise. Yes it has it flaws, but doesn't every model? No model has been correct all year even 48 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 True, and they normally don't or can't. I look at it this way, if the dyno models are having a hard time maintaining a solution or have little support from other op models...then this part of the fcst process is low confidence. If there is little or no stat/ens/climo support either or the large scale pattern is at odds with blocking, etc...then the med range fcst will remain low confidence with no heightened mention needed. Honestly, I'm kinda pissed you guys arent mentioning next weekends threat in the discussions. I mean, what the hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Next Weekend's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Next Weekend's storm giphy.gif Today, though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Honestly, I'm kinda pissed you guys arent mentioning next weekends threat in the discussions. I mean, what the hell? We aren't allowed too. That has to come from higher up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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