Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It feels like we will never see a -NAO again, 1 out of the past 13 winter months (DJF) has had a -NAO (including this winter). And its no coincidence that in those winter months we have had about 10" of snow total, which roughly spans 4 1/3 winters leaving us at roughly 35% of climo. That's why I am so bleak on any snow the rest of this winter, no blocking no now for us, usually. We are setting a record here for a +ENSO/+PDO winter to have all 3 months with a +AO, so we got that going for us. It was too much SAI. It killed us. And you notice, that big SAI pumper, MillWx, is long gone. He hasn't been seen since November. Kinda like a stock pumper. Get us all excited about this crap and we buy in and get our lunch money taken by the big SAI bully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yepper and with no blocking. I wonder how many miller b's we have had with no blocking. If you see his composite what does it show that sticks out like a sore thumb compared to what we are hoping will produce a winter storm in 10 days..... His composite is beautiful, PV has shifted into SE Quebec, blocking over the top, suppressed storm rack, tall ridging in the west. We have 2 of those items but not the most important. Succinct and to the point, and without question .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It was too much SAI. It killed us. And you notice, that big SAI pumper, MillWx, is long gone. He hasn't been seen since November. Kinda like a stock pumper. Get us all excited about this crap and we buy in and get our lunch money taken by the big SAI bully. It failed so badly it's virtually unusable now. I know none of these things are 100% but there was no mixed signals for this year and it couldn't have failed any worse. It literally killed every seasonal forecast. How is this going to ever get to JB's forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 whenever jburns allows, we need a new thread called "This Winter Sucks" and it'd be sort of like one of those remembrance books at a memorial service - just sign your name and go on in .... You mean I'm not posting in that thread now? Yepper and with no blocking. I wonder how many miller b's we have had with no blocking. If you see his composite what does it show that sticks out like a sore thumb compared to what we are hoping will produce a winter storm in 10 days..... His composite is beautiful, PV has shifted into SE Quebec, blocking over the top, suppressed storm rack, tall ridging in the west. We have 2 of those items but not the most important. Threading the needle ftw!!! Miller b's don't work for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You mean I'm not posting in that thread now? Threading the needle ftw!!! No - signature only. Then quiet and mourning prayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It failed so badly it's virtually unusable now. I know none of these things are 100% but there was no mixed signals for this year and it couldn't have failed any worse. It literally killed every seasonal forecast. How is this going to ever get to JB's forecast? JB is toast. Most winter forecasts are toast. Hey, by the way man, if you ever get to downtown Raleigh, PM me and we can hit up some lunch somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 No - signature only. Then quiet and mourning prayer. It might be needed sooner than you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 JB is toast. Most winter forecasts are toast. Hey, by the way man, if you ever get to downtown Raleigh, PM me and we can hit up some lunch somewhere. Good idea, will do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I feel bad for him. He's clearly struggling.It was pretty sad watching him being a d*** last night on the other forum trolling people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It might be needed sooner than you think With you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yepper and with no blocking. I wonder how many miller b's we have had with no blocking. If you see his composite what does it show that sticks out like a sore thumb compared to what we are hoping will produce a winter storm in 10 days..... His composite is beautiful, PV has shifted into SE Quebec, blocking over the top, suppressed storm rack, tall ridging in the west. We have 2 of those items but not the most important. The signal for high-latitude blocking in the NAO/AO regions is relatively weak, & unimpressive, the Pacific is where it really matters for Miller Bs. we can have a neutral-slightly positive NAO & still be fine... However, *If* by chance the NAO/AO are stoutly positive & increase, we're going to be dealing w/ a synoptic setup that is along the lines of February 1973 & December 1989 (if the incipient air mass permits of course). I'm sure even those who are well south of the I-20 corridor & on the Carolina coast wouldn't complain about that. I seriously doubt this happens, but just to be safe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The signal for high-latitude blocking in the NAO/AO regions is relatively weak, & unimpressive, the Pacific is where it really matters for Miller Bs. we can have a neutral-slightly positive NAO & still be fine... However, *If* by chance the NAO/AO are stoutly positive & increase, we're going to be dealing w/ a synoptic setup that is along the lines of February 1973 & December 1989 (if the incipient air mass permits of course). I'm sure even those who are well south of the I-20 corridor & on the Carolina coast wouldn't complain about that. I seriously doubt this happens, but just to be safe... Webber - You throw that down here my way and I'll drive to NC and buy you whatever beverage is allowed. Promise. Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 My goodness.... That map of the 1973 storm shows 10-15" in Atlanta to literally nothing in less than 5 miles. What a gradient. Either that map is wrong or I was wrong in thinking that Atlanta didn't get much from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I feel bad for him. He's clearly struggling. I don't know what happened with him at the other board yesterday. It was really bizarre. He seems to know his stuff but the outburst yesterday just came out of nowhere. I have no idea why he lost it over someone starting a thread about the potential for a storm in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 And I know I shouldn't be, but I am a bit disappointed about the drop in totals on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 And I know I shouldn't be, but I am a bit disappointed about the drop in totals on the GFS. Sorry man. You need a hug or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I've been waiting for a map like that for the 1989 storm for a while. I've been wondering how much snow we got in 1989. Thanks Webber! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sorry man. You need a hug or something? Something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 And I know I shouldn't be, but I am a bit disappointed about the drop in totals on the GFS. Here's the best snow map from the individual ensemble members. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Here's the best snow map from the individual ensemble members. Hope this helps. Does that factor in Freezing Rain and Sleet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Does that factor in Freezing Rain and Sleet ? This would be snow or mix per model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The Waycross forcefield was also present in 1989. Notice how we only got 1.6 inches and all the surrounding locations got 2-4 inches. Since its always warmer here than surrounding locations, it took the snow longer to accumulate because of warmer ground temps than surrounding locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sorry man. You need a hug or something?He needs sleep, got a busy day at work tomorrow ,posting Sanford and son gifs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 He needs sleep, got a busy day at work tomorrow ,posting Sanford and son gifs Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The Waycross forcefield was also present in 1989. Notice how we only got 1.6 inches and all the surrounding locations got 2-4 inches. Since its always warmer here than surrounding locations, it took the snow longer to accumulate because of warmer ground temps than surrounding locations. You would be close enough to go on a snow chase if that map that Wow posted verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 This would be snow or mix per model output.I've been burned bad by that map , just last Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I've been burned bad by that map , just last Feb! I'm only trying to help the Brick. Snow maps are pretty useless at 240 hrs. And can be just as useless at 24 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm only trying to help the Brick. Snow maps are pretty useless at 240 hrs. And can be just as useless at 24 hours! You not only helped Brick, but you helped me also. I can now rest easily tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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