superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sounds like the Euro Weeklies imply Fab Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Fab feb actually gonna happen? Book it! Mariettawx has already given us the 100% guarantee. You can't get better than than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well things have certainly livened up around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks transient, even if it were to happen ???? Usually that kind of cold does move out quick. Still if it happens and if somebody was to have snow cover this kind of cold could produce below zero temps. It's been sometime since I've seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Usually that kind of cold does move out quick. Still if it happens and if somebody was to have snow cover this kind of cold could produce below zero temps. It's been sometime since I've seen that. Didn't Atlanta record a high of 17F on February 5th, 1996 after a similar situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Man, the GFS really backed off the totals that time. I know, I know, don't worry about every op run this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Very nice high(1040+). Verbatim it still looks like a beautiful winter storm. More ice for us but still a great setup. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=228&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Thanks man. Major winter storm incoming on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hay this is way out, but do you guys think this would be cold (especially if we had snow coverage)? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=288&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 If that verifies, it just might/ compel Max to snap up a shirt button or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm cautiously optimistic that something finally happens sometime during the next 3 weeks to give us at least a little winter weather. Just 1 flake or pellet here would be better than what we had here in 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm cautiously optimistic that something finally happens sometime during the next 3 weeks to give us at least a little winter weather. Just 1 flake or pellet here would be better than what we had here in 2011-2012. Quoted for posterity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Did 1300M close his Facebook page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Did 1300M close his Facebook page? Looks like it. I used to be able to get to it, but I can't now. Why does he have to be so difficult? He's actually a pretty smart guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Thanks man. Major winter storm incoming on that map. The details of the potential storm is just banter at this range, but looking at the 18z GFS brought back memories if the January 1996 storm. I was living in Wake Forest and we received 14 hours of sleet. The below map depicts 4-6 inches of snow/sleet but that was mostly sleet. Amazing storm. Would not mind seeing another one of those. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Did 1300M close his Facebook page? looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 looks like it I feel bad for him. He's clearly struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is just sad, just throw in the towel. Sadly in the back of my mind I was still thinking this was going to come together for a -AO in Feb. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation The outlook for the AO for February favors more neutral to perhaps negative conditions developing after the first week of February as influences of the minor stratospheric warming event continue to be felt. Edit: I looked, rather quickly, but we haven't had a +ENSO/+PDO winter where all 3 months the AO was +. Atleast one of the months was negative, but that's what we are looking at while staring at a record SAI. Only 2 of the 15 winters didn't average negative for DJF (83 and 05) and both of those barely avg positive (.15 or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is just sad, just throw in the towel. Sadly in the back of my mind I was still thinking this was going to come together for a -AO in Feb. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation The outlook for the AO for February favors more neutral to perhaps negative conditions developing after the first week of February as influences of the minor stratospheric warming event continue to be felt. Just give it up man. You'll feel so much better. We are not going to get any sort of blocking of any kind until winter is over. It just doesn't happen anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The details of the potential storm is just banter at this range, but looking at the 18z GFS brought back memories if the January 1996 storm. I was living in Wake Forest and we received 14 hours of sleet. The below map depicts 4-6 inches of snow/sleet but that was mostly sleet. Amazing storm. Would not mind seeing another one of those. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif I can't tell you why, but I don't remember that storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm waiting till next Tuesday before I jump aboard for "Fabulous February". These models are crazy and could easily be doing a repeat performance of this entire winter so far. Fwiw I haven't even been paying attention to tomorrow and didn't realize we had a severe weather threat here. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm waiting till next Tuesday before I jump aboard for "Fabulous February". These models are crazy and could easily be doing a repeat performance of this entire winter so far. Fwiw I haven't even been paying attention to tomorrow and didn't realize we had a severe weather threat here. Awesome! What's up man? How's it going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I can't tell you why, but I don't remember that storm at all. I was in WF too. I remember it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This is just sad, just throw in the towel. Sadly in the back of my mind I was still thinking this was going to come together for a -AO in Feb. http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation The outlook for the AO for February favors more neutral to perhaps negative conditions developing after the first week of February as influences of the minor stratospheric warming event continue to be felt. Edit: I looked, rather quickly, but we haven't had a +ENSO/+PDO winter where all 3 months the AO was +. Atleast one of the months was negative, but that's what we are looking at while staring at a record SAI. Only 2 of the 15 winters didn't average negative for DJF (83 and 05) and both of those barely avg positive (.15 or so). Congrats Eurasia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Congrats Eurasia I dated her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wolfpack not looking too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 What's up man? How's it going?Hey CR. Good here!Another thing, you don't want to be in the bulleye this far out. Checkout Washington DC! They went from a potentially significant snowstorm to nearly all rain now. That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hey CR. Good here! Another thing, you don't want to be in the bulleye this far out. Checkout Washington DC! They went from a potentially significant snowstorm to nearly all rain now. That sucks I haven't been to the MA forum in a few days, but I'll bet they're not happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Webber with some strong posts today. I'm not a big fan of the Miller B screw though. That often results in a change to rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just give it up man. You'll feel so much better. We are not going to get any sort of blocking of any kind until winter is over. It just doesn't happen anymore. It feels like we will never see a -NAO again, 1 out of the past 13 winter months (DJF) has had a -NAO (including this winter). And its no coincidence that in those winter months we have had about 10" of snow total, which roughly spans 4 1/3 winters leaving us at roughly 35% of climo. That's why I am so bleak on any snow the rest of this winter, no blocking no now for us, usually. We are setting a record here for a +ENSO/+PDO winter to have all 3 months with a +AO, so we got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 whenever jburns allows, we need a new thread called "This Winter Sucks" and it'd be sort of like one of those remembrance books at a memorial service - just sign your name and go on in .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Webber with some strong posts today. I'm not a big fan of the Miller B screw though. That often results in a change to rain for us. Yepper and with no blocking. I wonder how many miller b's we have had with no blocking. If you see his composite what does it show that sticks out like a sore thumb compared to what we are hoping will produce a winter storm in 10 days..... His composite is beautiful, PV has shifted into SE Quebec, blocking over the top, suppressed storm rack, tall ridging in the west. We have 2 of those items but not the most important. Edit: I also am not saying Webber is hyping this potential event, he was simply saying it won't be a miller A, if something does occur. I was just re-using his composite to make a point about the red herring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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