kvegas-wx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's late January here in Georgia Last time I checked it is the last day of the MIDDLE third of January. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't know how, but we are getting sleet pellets at 50 degrees right now. Is that even possible ?Are you sure it's not hail there is some nice convection over your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well, at least the 18z put us out of our misery quickly. Yep, makes sense, no blocking. We have a better chance of catching the Easter bunny or a leprechaun than a RDU snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Last time I checked it is the last day of the MIDDLE third of January. Lol. To me, I would break down January into 3 parts. Early, Middle, and Late. Each part has 10 days and 8 hours each for a total of 31 days. Early January : January 1 to 8am January 11 Mid January : 8am January 11- 4pm January 21 Late January : 4pm January 21-January 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yep, makes sense, no blocking. We have a better chance of catching the Easter bunny or a leprechaun than a RDU snow event. Haha! That sounds about right. Is there a high pressure up there or is that gone now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Are you sure it's not hail there is some nice convection over your area. Heck, I dont know. Maybe it was hail. All I know is I heard a lot of loud noises. It sounded like sleet to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Needs to get south quick. Don't want no inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Heck, I dont know. Maybe it was hail. All I know is I heard a lot of loud noises. It sounded like sleet to me. There have been confirmed sleet reports where you are and in AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There have been confirmed sleet reports where you are and in AL. At 50 degrees ? That seems really unusual to me. I'm pretty sure it was sleet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Haha! That sounds about right. Is there a high pressure up there or is that gone now? Nothing is over with at this point. we just need the overall pattern to be favorable for a storm at this range. Absolutely no way that the models can show jackpot depictions on every run at 9 days out. Day 7/6 is the magic day(s) for us to start focusing on the storm path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nothing is over with at this point. we just need the overall pattern to be favorable for a storm at this range. Absolutely no way that the models can show jackpot depictions on every run at 9 days out. Day 7/6 is the magic day(s) for us to start focusing on the storm path. Oh yeah...you know I'm playing around. But what I do want to continue to see is a pattern that supports high pressure up north. That's all I'm concerned about at this point. I haven't seen the 18z run. Does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The storm coming around the 2nd is going to be it guys. I'm 100% sure it's coming a widespread snow storm for us SE forum members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just give up people! Stop torturing yourselves!! Go enjoy the longer evenings, the cool breezes like a fall evening and put down your spring lawn treatments. If it snows, it snows. Let it be a surprise. This place has become almost toxic this year. We all need a gutter snapping storm, but trying to model hug 10 day trends that never make it to 7 days will seriously wreck your mental state. Tonight I am going on a beautiful walk with my dog in the middle of january in the triad. I'll take it..... Make sure you keep Brick out of the street, on y'all's walk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The storm coming around the 2nd is going to be it guys. I'm 100% sure it's coming a widespread snow storm for us SE forum members. Are you being serious ? How can anyone be 100% sure about anything, especially widespread snow in the southeast 10 days out ? I'm fairly optimistic that someone in NC and TN will see snow during that time period, but I don't know about us in the deep south. I would be excited right now if I lived along the I-40 corridor from Memphis to Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Heck, I dont know. Maybe it was hail. All I know is I heard a lot of loud noises. It sounded like sleet to me.Pretty high reflectivity in that band, probly was sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Are you being serious ? How can anyone be 100% sure about anything, especially widespread snow in the southeast 10 days out ?As sure as you about sleet at 55 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Needs to get south quick. Don't want no inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't know how, but we are getting sleet pellets at 50 degrees right now. Is that even possible ? No. Look again, I bet it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The storm coming around the 2nd is going to be it guys. I'm 100% sure it's coming a widespread snow storm for us SE forum members. Shoot I'm just happy to have some colorful clowns to look at. We've not had much of that at all up to this point, even in far out fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 one of the 18z GEFS members at 186 hrs... yes, that's a 1062 HP coming into the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Shoot I'm just happy to have some colorful clowns to look at. We've not had much of that at all up to this point, even in far out fantasy land. I know right?! Fantasy snow has been hard to come by lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 one of the 18z GEFS members at 186 hrs... yes, that's a 1062 HP coming into the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 one of the 18z GEFS members at 186 hrs... yes, that's a 1062 HP coming into the US Yes it is. The question/dilemma is does it scoot east? Or can some block (I think I maybe see a hint) hold it in and maybe push it just a little bit south and get that 540 just a little more aligned? If so maybe whatever is in the SW can be nudged in our direction and maybe, maybe, maybe ... haven't seen the other members past 186 (no paid access) so this is sort of a vacuum response .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't post usually, but I do agree with everyone that is saying not to look at the day to day model runs this far out. I'd say if it is still showing up early next week, I'll get more enthused about the opportunity for wintry weather. I've really enjoyed learning with what people have to say. I have gone from watching videos to be able to interpret some of these weather maps on my own, and that is just by reading what the more experience people have to say. Just enjoy the weather you have, it's the only one you get. With all this said, I will go back to reading and learning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 one of the 18z GEFS members at 186 hrs... yes, that's a 1062 HP coming into the US And yes this is the look we need to stay firm as walk through the valley of death over the next 10 days....Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Oh yeah...you know I'm playing around. But what I do want to continue to see is a pattern that supports high pressure up north. That's all I'm concerned about at this point. I haven't seen the 18z run. Does it? Very nice high(1040+). Verbatim it still looks like a beautiful winter storm. More ice for us but still a great setup. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=228&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+18+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hay this is way out, but do you guys think this would be cold (especially if we had snow coverage)? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=288&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Hay this is way out, but do you guys think this would be cold (especially if we had snow coverage)? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=850_temp_ht&fhr=288&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150122+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Looks transient, even if it were to happen ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I don't post usually, but I do agree with everyone that is saying not to look at the day to day model runs this far out. I'd say if it is still showing up early next week, I'll get more enthused about the opportunity for wintry weather. I've really enjoyed learning with what people have to say. I have gone from watching videos to be able to interpret some of these weather maps on my own, and that is just by reading what the more experience people have to say. Just enjoy the weather you have, it's the only one you get. With all this said, I will go back to reading and learning. Welcome! Great to get more Triad posters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Fab feb actually gonna happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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