DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This storm needs a separate thread. It's in banter, it's in the medium range... it's almost all that people are talking about. We've had two days of consistent (for this far out AND for this winter) model runs that depict a storm, meteorologist are all jumping on it (even the guy whose models are on this site)... and it appears that it's the best chance we've had for a decent system all winter long. We obviously have no choice but to respect your wishes JB, but it sure would be easier to keep track of this potential if it were in it's own thread. And it doesn't have to be mine... I don't care. Not trying to ruffle any feathers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Should I go ahead and book a hotel room in Greensboro or Raleigh or is it too early ?Rain cold probably has an extra room!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Lol, the Euro looks like its setting up the FL coast again for some ocean effect snow in 6 days. It had that exact look when Jacksonville got snow earlier this year. That's going to be weird if Jacksonville gets 2 snow events before most of us event get 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Allan tweeted this, I don't think I can recall getting snow with 850's below -10... Cold air is not a problem per the Euro and the GFS. The 12z GFS had NC in the teens and 20's for the duration of the event. Then crashing into the single digits for the entire state afterward. In fact, the high for 2/4 may not get out of the teens for MBY. That would be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Makes two of us! Wow! I'm surprised! Back on 2011 we had almost 8" here just NE of Atlanta. I'd probably have to go back to the 93 superstorm (I had about 10-11") for the next big snow. I just figured being in NC you would have had some good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Majority of GEFS members do have a winter storm in the SE, this is the best it could do though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Cold air is not a problem per the Euro and the GFS. The 12z GFS had NC in the teens and 20's for the duration of the event. Then crashing into the single digits for the entire state afterward. In fact, the high for 2/4 may not get out of the teens for MBY. That would be insane. It is great to finally have a threat that doesn't need to find the cold air. This sounds like it all hinges on how much precip there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wow! I'm surprised! Back on 2011 we had almost 8" here just NE of Atlanta. I'd probably have to go back to the 93 superstorm (I had about 10-11") for the next big snow. I just figured being in NC you would have had some good ones. Well, I am embellishing a little, we had 6-7" for the boxing day in 2010, but that's the only 6"+ storm since 04. I think we have had 2 or 3 other 4-5" events. But well below our usual average over the past 11 years. Although, maybe that is the new norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Cold air is not a problem per the Euro and the GFS. The 12z GFS had NC in the teens and 20's for the duration of the event. Then crashing into the single digits for the entire state afterward. In fact, the high for 2/4 may not get out of the teens for MBY. That would be insane. Another cold storm would be great. I loved how cold 1/28 and 2/13 were last year. Surface temps around 20 are just awesome for accumulations. Even mid-20s are great. Hell, I'd take upper 20s, too! Just no 32-33/slop for our big storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It is great to finally have a threat that doesn't need to find the cold air. Don't.Count.Chickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This storm needs a separate thread. It's in banter, it's in the medium range... it's almost all that people are talking about. We've had two days of consistent (for this far out AND for this winter) model runs that depict a storm, meteorologist are all jumping on it (even the guy whose models are on this site)... and it appears that it's the best chance we've had for a decent system all winter long. We obviously have no choice but to respect your wishes JB, but it sure would be easier to keep track of this potential if it were in it's own thread. And it doesn't have to be mine... I don't care. Not trying to ruffle any feathers... Agreed... Regardless if it happens or not this upcoming threat really is worth a thread. Everything looks amazing. There are some huge signals pointing to something big. As was said earlier it would be really neat to be able to have a one stop shop for referring back to if we end up with a big one, more than a few days out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It is great to finally have a threat that doesn't need to find the cold air. This sounds like it all hinges on how much precip there is. LOL. Come back in 9 days when we're talking about 850s of 0-1C and hoping for magical dynamics to cool the surface down from the mid to upper 30s the models are showing. I'm just kidding... though nothing would shock me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Majority of GEFS members do have a winter storm in the SE, this is the best it could do though... 18" of snow near Columbia ? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Makes two of us! Last year was my first one since Feb 04. It took 10 years. I can't complain I guess. But man I really want this one to work out too! First goal...get it still showing strong through the weekend. lol. Maybe if we take our time and be patient with it, it'll be more likely to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Another cold storm would be great. I loved how cold 1/28 and 2/13 were last year. Surface temps around 20 are just awesome for accumulations. Even mid-20s are great. Hell, I'd take upper 20s, too! Just no 32-33/slop for our big storm! Well, 2/13 was great especially with the ULL snow the following morning but once it lifted out, it was a near immediate melt down! Got into the 40's and half of it was gone by the end of the day. Here, we are going in the opposite direction, going into the freezer after with a solid snowpack per the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Don't.Count.Chickens. Word. First step....get it through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well, 2/13 was great especially with the ULL snow the following morning but once it lifted out, it was a near immediate melt down! Got into the 40's and half of it was gone by the end of the day. Here, we are going in the opposite direction, going into the freezer after with a solid snowpack per the models. Good point. Yeah, the ULL snow was a warm snow, anyways. It was kind of depressing to see light snow with temps of 33-34 and the driveway melting off even with the snow coming down. 2/13 was great on day 1 here, though. 21/heavy snow during the late afternoon was just amazing (think it was just rain down there until the ULL, right?... the ULL didn't really do much here aside from drop about 1"). Temps were dreadful afterwards, as you said. I remember after the sun came out after the ULL came through, it warmed up to close to 40 in about an hour. The 3/6-7 ice storm was largely similar. The next day it changed to rain before the end, then we torched over the coming days. Looks like whatever/if anything sticks, it will have some staying power this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 LOL. Come back in 9 days when we're talking about 850s of 0-1C and hoping for magical dynamics to cool the surface down from the mid to upper 30s the models are showing. I'm just kidding... though nothing would shock me at this point. I don't remember the last winter storm we didn't have to worry about temps. For RDU the 2/13 winter storm last year it looked like a cold rain up until the storm happened, we then got a few hours of snow and a lot of taint. We always have to worry about temps here, moral of the story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well, 2/13 was great especially with the ULL snow the following morning but once it lifted out, it was a near immediate melt down! Got into the 40's and half of it was gone by the end of the day. Here, we are going in the opposite direction, going into the freezer after with a solid snowpack per the models. I'm not sure I like that actually. I will be at a hotel somewhere in NC and don't wanna get stuck for a week. I want a foot of snow followed by 60's two days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't remember the last winter storm we didn't have to worry about temps. For RDU the 2/13 winter storm last year it looked like a cold rain up until the storm happened, we then got a few hours of snow and a lot of taint. Taint is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't remember the last winter storm we didn't have to worry about temps. For RDU the 2/13 winter storm last year it looked like a cold rain up until the storm happened, we then got a few hours of snow and a lot of taint. 1/28, at least here. No worries at all. Just wish there was more precip. Christmas 2010 was worryless as far as temps, too, IIRC. The V-Day 2010 storm was also very cold here with no worry about temps. Other than that, temps are always an issue, whether it's the BL or mid-levels. We taint in almost every storm at some point, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Good point. Yeah, the ULL snow was a warm snow, anyways. It was kind of depressing to see light snow with temps of 33-34 and the driveway melting off even with the snow coming down. 2/13 was great on day 1 here, though. 21/heavy snow during the late afternoon was just amazing (think it was just rain down there until the ULL, right?... the ULL didn't really do much here aside from drop about 1"). Temps were dreadful afterwards, as you said. I remember after the sun came out after the ULL came through, it warmed up to close to 40 in about an hour. The 3/6-7 ice storm was largely similar. The next day it changed to rain before the end, then we torched over the coming days. Looks like whatever/if anything sticks, it will have some staying power this time around. It was powdery snow on 2/13 and plenty cold but it was never that heavy and only reached 4" or so. Thought it was another big bust until the ULL came in and we sat in that very heavy band all morning and pushing our totals up close to a foot. It was the most beautiful sight, but once it rolled out... drip, drip, drip. I would've traded in less snow for more cold afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wow! I'm surprised! Back on 2011 we had almost 8" here just NE of Atlanta. I'd probably have to go back to the 93 superstorm (I had about 10-11") for the next big snow. I just figured being in NC you would have had some good ones.Snowstorms stats don't surprise me. Only 6+" snow we have had IMBY in the 22 years I have lived here was Jan 2002. We were in a sweet spot that got about 7". ATL airport got about 4.5 if I remember correctly. Superstorm 93 gave us about 5". 2011 snow dumped 6+ not far to our north and west, but we had mixing issues and ended up with 3-4 of snow with sleet and ZR on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Snowstorms stats don't surprise me. Only 6+" snow we have had IMBY in the 22 years I have lived here was Jan 2002. We were in a sweet spot that got about 7". ATL airport got about 4.5 if I remember correctly. Superstorm 93 gave us about 5". 2011 snow dumped 6+ not far to our north and west, but we had mixing issues and ended up with 3-4 of snow with sleet and ZR on top. Only 6" snowstorms I've ever experienced ( that I remember) was January 1992 and March 1993. How much did you get in January 1992 ? ATL actually got more snow in 92 than 93. Since 1993 the biggest snows I've had were in 2002 ( 4 inches), 2010 ( 4 inches), 2011 ( 4 inches). I can't seem to get past 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This storm needs a separate thread. It's in banter, it's in the medium range... it's almost all that people are talking about. We've had two days of consistent (for this far out AND for this winter) model runs that depict a storm, meteorologist are all jumping on it (even the guy whose models are on this site)... and it appears that it's the best chance we've had for a decent system all winter long. We obviously have no choice but to respect your wishes JB, but it sure would be easier to keep track of this potential if it were in it's own thread. And it doesn't have to be mine... I don't care. Not trying to ruffle any feathers... So your argument is we need to add another thread because it is in too many threads. I'll have to think about that one for a while. Get back to me in about 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It is great to finally have a threat that doesn't need to find the cold air. This sounds like it all hinges on how much precip there is.Let's hope the cold air projected holds. Of course I am basing that on what I have read here in the last 10 minutes. Been traveling and in meetings the last two days and have had little time to follow. I come back and see this. Maybe I should stay away for good luck. Agree with the cold air. The Jan. 28 snow last year was the fastest I have seen snow stick to all surfaces in 22 years in GA. This why it was such a disaster in ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Let's hope the cold air projected holds. Of course I am basing that on what I have read here in the last 10 minutes. Been traveling and in meetings the last two days and have had little time to follow. I come back and see this. Maybe I should stay away for good luck. Agree with the cold air. The Jan. 28 snow last year was the fastest I have seen snow stick to all surfaces in 22 years in GA. This why it was such a disaster in ATL. I still can't get over how unprepared everyone was last January. I mean, to me the fact that temps were forecast to be so cold was a sign that it was going to be much worse than your typical Atlanta snow. I just thought it was so obvious that it was going to be very bad given the extremely low temps. Did everyone just completely disregard the forecasted temps that day ? I think a lot of people just assumed it would be your typical 2" Atlanta snow without actually looking at the temps. I had to be at work at like 1pm that day and I called my employer before the snow even started to let them know I wouldn't be coming in. They were shocked and asked why. Needless to say, around 12pm they sent everyone home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Only 6" snowstorms I've ever experienced ( that I remember) was January 1992 and March 1993. How much did you get in January 1992 ? ATL actually got more snow in 92 than 93. Since 1993 the biggest snows I've had were in 2002 ( 4 inches), 2010 ( 4 inches), 2011 ( 4 inches). I can't seem to get past 4". Moved to GA in June 92. March 93 was my first GA snow. Friends said 92 snow was a heavy wet snow, but don't know how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=22&model_init_hh=12&fhour=276¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Would be a storm that was talked about for many years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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