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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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Winter has been painful for all of the met bloggers and wannabe met bloggers.  The hype was rampant in late fall to an irresponsible point.  This winter will be a humbling experience for the good mets.  The fools who aren't humbled will be doomed to eternal suckage as a blogger/met weenie.

Long ranges reads will continue to be possiable works of fiction. Maybe a guidepost or two, but in no way the gospel. Teeth will gnash and butts will get hurt.

 

I approached this winter with a personal 24 HR rule. Meaning, I would not let my excitement increase until 24 HR before an event is set to unfold (based on modeling, forecasts, among other things). Even though, I have been burned many times in the 12 HR and less time frame.

 

So far, so good this year. 

 

 

With that said, lets reel this next system in, dammit 

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Long ranges reads will continue to be possiable works of fiction. Maybe a guidepost or two, but in no way the gospel. Teeth will gnash and butts will get hurt.

 

I approached this winter with a personally 24 HR rule. Meaning, I would not let my excitement increase until 24 HR before an event is set to unfold (based on modeling, forecasts, among other things). Even though, I have been burned many times in the 12 HR and less time frame.

 

So far, so good this year. 

 

 

With that said, lets reel this next system in, dammit 

 

I fell for the hype like many others.  I envisioned a wall to wall cold and stormy winter. 

 

fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - can't get fooled again.

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I fell for the hype like many others.  I envisioned a wall to wall cold and stormy winter. 

 

fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - can't get fooled again.

 

Not only that, but this cool and rainy crap is literally the worst combination for a winter.  I way prefer 11/12, in fact I don't remember being frustrated with the weather in 11/12, probably because it was warm/dry.  Our only hope now is we get an early spring from mid-Feb on.

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I fell for the hype like many others.  I envisioned a wall to wall cold and stormy winter. 

 

fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - can't get fooled again.

 

Yeah, long range forecasting is useless.  I actually hope next year's predictions are for warm and dry, cause it'll probably be the opposite.

 

With that said, if we get a paste job on Feb 2 all is forgiven!

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Long ranges reads will continue to be possiable works of fiction. Maybe a guidepost or two, but in no way the gospel. Teeth will gnash and butts will get hurt.

 

 

We just don't have the technology.  I managed to procure an in house photo of the rolling out of the Para GFS upgrade. It says a lot.  The increase in resolution was achieved by replacing the icosahedron die with a triacontahedron. 

 

 

standard.jpg

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The GFS looks great for a lot of people. However I hope it changes for us in Georgia because right now it looks like generators and chain saws.

 

It has been going back and forth with the ice. The run before had a big ice storm for NC. This time it had snow for us. The big thing is there is still a big storm showing up.

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Please, please, pleaaasssseeee let the GFS be right.  This winter could go from worst to first.  We need someone with good mojo to start the storm thread if it gets to that point.  Think we could lure Robert back here?  I just pray if this storm happens I don't get caught in sleet hell again like last year.  Upstate overdue for a jackpot :weenie:

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Please, please, pleaaasssseeee let the GFS be right. This winter could go from worst to first. We need someone with good mojo to start the storm thread if it gets to that point. Think we could lure Robert back here? I just pray if this storm happens I don't get caught in sleet hell again like last year. Upstate overdue for a jackpot :weenie:

Is it worse to be in the bullseye 10 days out or 7?
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Is it worse to be in the bullseye 10 days out or 7?

 

Yeah I'm not buying in until both GFS and EURO are consistent with the setup (at least with the ensembles) at day 7.  Op runs may skew here and there but I'd like to see the nice well placed west coast ridge, a bit of ridging in Greenland, and the nice STJ on both the ensembles.  That is still strong on Monday I'm in. 

 

I'm actually pretty confident in the storm actually showing up, just not so sure about the cold being advertised.  We'll see.

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