Dunkman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just look at the wild swings the storm this friday has taken. First, models were showing a nice snowstorm for the southeast, then it was suppressed all to hell with very cold 850's. Now, it's a huge rainstorm with temperatures torching, although they have cooled somewhat with more recent runs. No, first the models were showing a rainstorm for the southeast only we took it upon ourselves to assume the 2m temps were too warm on the models because the 850s were plenty cold. It turns out the 850s were wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This lol exactly..and just like a spoiled rich kid during the storm or right after they will complain about getting 6 inches instead of 10 or a foot. Then toward the end of winter/spring they will complain about how much the winter sucked and how hard they have had it, despite getting nailed several times with snows that we would kill for. I don't feel this way about any other region, including the northeast/new england. I only get annoyed with dc/mid atlantic. and the reason it bugs me is because for years I/we had to listen to their endless complaining before we broke up the board into subforums. Plus most of the time when we have a storm trend the wrong direction and it screws us, it usually means they are going to get hit. So not only did I/we have to listen to their absurd complaining over storms we would love and appreciate, at the same time we would be sitting here with our 35 to 40 degree rain. Oh and at the time when many of us were just starting out and learning, there were only a handful of mets on the board and 99% of the focus from them was concentrated on dc/the mid atlantic. There could be a serious threat of a major winter storm in the southeast and not a single met would touch upon it. Instead, they all only cared about if DC was going to get a dusting or not. And to top it off, 99% of the time they all tried their best to find ways for the storm to screw us so DC could get theirs. It was maddening Fortunately, we no longer are forced to read that crap lol. Still though, it left an impression on me that lingers to this day and it still gets under my skin every time All this is why i laugh at those today complaining about north carolina getting so much attention when it pales in comparison to the DC/mid atlantic snow obsession back then. You younger/newer folks would really blow a gasket if you all were around back then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I disagree that the models have shown lots of good lucks that didn't verify this winter. What has happened is one model has shown some potential for something to happen if about 50 things go right and it continues to change in the direction of snow, which hasn't happened. The ensembles have shown some storms but they are designed to show all of the possible scenarios, not the most likely. Much of the SE forum pain this winter has been self inflicted. I don't recall the models showing a look at good as the one they are showing for the beginning of February at any point this winter but I haven't been following them as closely as some.the gfs and euro ensembles have, twice. Hopefully they are right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 After everything we've gone through this winter so far, I don't see how anyone can take any threats outside of 7 days seriously. Brick, I'm not trying to single you out, I'm just tired of seeing people act like there's truth to these fantasy storms when the models have proven time after time that they can't get their acts together even withing 48 hours of a storm. Now, if this storm does verify 10 days from now, I'll gladly eat crow, because I want to see something frozen just as much as everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 No, first the models were showing a rainstorm for the southeast only we took it upon ourselves to assume the 2m temps were too warm on the models because the 850s were plenty cold. It turns out the 850s were wrong. Well, I may have overstated "snowstorm" as 2m temps were in the mid-upper 30's, but it has snowed here before with those temperatures and even around 40. The point being, the models weren't even close to having a grasp on this system until the storm was under 5 days out. I'll be happy just to see snow falling so we don't get skunked completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For me, as much as I like the NC folks, it would hurt more if they got snow and we didn't. DC is like 700 miles away so I honestly don't care about them. They are supposed to get snow. Just like places like Chicago are supposed to get snow. Would everyone feel as bad if Chicago got snow and we didn't ? Why do people on this forum care more about the weather in the northeast than the Midwest ?the mid Atlantic averages less snow than the nc mtns. In fact there are some places in the mtns that average more than sne. So, if a punch in the gut to be below average while a bunch of whining babies rack up on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 No, first the models were showing a rainstorm for the southeast only we took it upon ourselves to assume the 2m temps were too warm on the models because the 850s were plenty cold. It turns out the 850s were wrong.no. They had a good snowstorm for alot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here's a good example for us to look at objectively. This is one of the best looks at the upcoming event from the 12Z 1/15 Euro -- 850 temps and surface features. This is a 9 day forecast. It didn't take too many more runs for this to vanish completely and then come back with a marginal event. Look at all of the unfavorable low pressure zones across the north and up into Canada. The black circle is roughly where the PV is located. And note the very marginal 850 temps (surface temps, not shown, are not favorable for most and there is no wedging that is going to be sustained through the event): Now, look at the difference in the D10 Euro from today. Big PV dropping in. Instead of lots of LPs running around, strong HP is building in. Much colder 850s are in the vicinity. And we have a storm system showing up in a good spot: The entire look is one of a much more severe and widespread winter storm than the upcoming warm snow event. Will it change? Probably. But it is not correct to compare the progs of both of these separate events as apples to apples. The setup 10 days from now is modeled to be much more favorable. And I'm not saying we haven't seen favorable looks, only to have them vanish. Because we have and we have. All I'm saying is that the 10 day out look is far better than the upcoming one ever was. We'll see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ^ CR, Great post! I remain kind of excited about the potential in the first few days of Feb. That ten day look is hard to beat. Actually, this should be in the pattern thread imo. Did you mean to put it in banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here's a good example for us to look at objectively. This is one of the best looks at the upcoming event from the 12Z 1/15 Euro -- 850 temps and surface features. This is a 9 day forecast. It didn't take too many more runs for this to vanish completely and then come back with a marginal event. Look at all of the unfavorable low pressure zones across the north and up into Canada. The black circle is roughly where the PV is located. And note the very marginal 850 temps (surface temps, not shown, are not favorable for most and there is no wedging that is going to be sustained through the event): ecmwf_T850_namer_10.png Now, look at the difference in the D10 Euro from today. Big PV dropping in. Instead of lots of LPs running around, strong HP is building in. Much colder 850s are in the vicinity. And we have a storm system showing up in a good spot: untitled1.png The entire look is one of a much more severe and widespread winter storm than the upcoming warm snow event. Will it change? Probably. But it is not correct to compare the progs of both of these separate events as apples to apples. The setup 10 days from now is modeled to be much more favorable. And I'm not saying we haven't seen favorable looks, only to have them vanish. Because we have and we have. All I'm saying is that the 10 day out look is far better than the upcoming one ever was. We'll see if it holds. If we get a +PNA/-AO, then we will have a great chance of seeing snow, well outside of RDU. If we get the +PNA/-AO/-NAO, which is what the Op Euro is showing, it will be time to buy a new snow shovel. If we just get the +PNA/-EPO then we will be tracking a day 10 snowstorm to about day 5 only to see it track over us or NW of us or somewhere unfavorable. Hopefully SJ or Franklin reports back on if the 12z EPS shows blocking. I don't recall the 12z run from yesterday showing any and I haven't looked at the 0z EPS. I assume it didn't as I didn't read any posts that it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here's a good example for us to look at objectively. This is one of the best looks at the upcoming event from the 12Z 1/15 Euro -- 850 temps and surface features. This is a 9 day forecast. It didn't take too many more runs for this to vanish completely and then come back with a marginal event. Look at all of the unfavorable low pressure zones across the north and up into Canada. The black circle is roughly where the PV is located. And note the very marginal 850 temps (surface temps, not shown, are not favorable for most and there is no wedging that is going to be sustained through the event): ecmwf_T850_namer_10.png Now, look at the difference in the D10 Euro from today. Big PV dropping in. Instead of lots of LPs running around, strong HP is building in. Much colder 850s are in the vicinity. And we have a storm system showing up in a good spot: untitled1.png The entire look is one of a much more severe and widespread winter storm than the upcoming warm snow event. Will it change? Probably. But it is not correct to compare the progs of both of these separate events as apples to apples. The setup 10 days from now is modeled to be much more favorable. And I'm not saying we haven't seen favorable looks, only to have them vanish. Because we have and we have. All I'm saying is that the 10 day out look is far better than the upcoming one ever was. We'll see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If we get a +PNA/-AO, then we will have a great chance of seeing snow, well outside of RDU. If we get the +PNA/-AO/-NAO, which is what the Op Euro is showing, it will be time to buy a new snow shovel. If we just get the +PNA/-EPO then we will be tracking a day 10 snowstorm to about day 5 only to see it track over us or NW of us or somewhere unfavorable. Hopefully SJ or Franklin reports back on if the 12z EPS shows blocking. I don't recall the 12z run from yesterday showing any and I haven't looked at the 0z EPS. I assume it didn't as I didn't read any posts that it did. James will have to. I'm about to be in an area with no cell signal. #living in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Thanks for taking the time to drop this comparison. And I'm not saying we haven't seen favorable looks, only to have them vanish. Because we have and we have. All I'm saying is that the 10 day out look is far better than the upcoming one ever was. We'll see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I will say this, for whatever reason we do get a lot of winter storms on Tues-Wed. Last year all the winter storms were on Tues-Wed, 1/25/2000 was a Tuesday, 1/2/2002 was a Wed. I could go on and on. 2/3/15 FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I will say this, for whatever reason we do get a lot of winter storms on Tues-Wed. Last year all the winter storms were on Tues-Wed, 1/25/2000 was a Tuesday, 1/2/2002 was a Wed. I could go on and on. Indeed... love those midweek storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ^ CR, Great post! I remain kind of excited about the potential in the first few days of Feb. That ten day look is hard to beat. Actually, this should be in the pattern thread imo. Did you mean to put it in banter? Thanks, Larry...I figured there were already enough maps in the pattern thread that talked about the D10 pattern. I was just responding to the discussion of the similarities between these two "threats", which was in here. That's why I stuck it in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Thanks! Thanks for taking the time to drop this comparison. No problemo. Visualization helps...at least it does for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 After everything we've gone through this winter so far, I don't see how anyone can take any threats outside of 7 days seriously. Brick, I'm not trying to single you out, I'm just tired of seeing people act like there's truth to these fantasy storms when the models have proven time after time that they can't get their acts together even withing 48 hours of a storm. Now, if this storm does verify 10 days from now, I'll gladly eat crow, because I want to see something frozen just as much as everyone else. Yeah it is basically cliff jumping in reverse. I even have a name for it. Meto-Rapture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Indeed... love those midweek storms Me, too. There's always a chance it could close work for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Why is it that WilkesboroDude is even more relevant after his banning than he was before? The guy has been gone for over a year or two now, and yet he is consistently discussed on this forum. If his goal was to achieve notoriety or infamy before flaming out, he apparently achieved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Why is that WilkesboroDude is even more relevant after his banning than he was before? The guy has been gone for over a year or two now, and yet he is consistently discussed on this forum. If his goal was to achieve notoriety or infamy before flaming out, he apparently achieved it.Lol, dude do you remember that news article someone posted about Wilkes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Lol, dude do you remember that news article someone posted about Wilkes? We should invite him back...maybe he can help the atmosphere heal quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Why is that WilkesboroDude is even more relevant after his banning than he was before? The guy has been gone for over a year or two now, and yet he is consistently discussed on this forum. If his goal was to achieve notoriety or infamy before flaming out, he apparently achieved it. Um, who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The angle of the cold air is all wrong. Winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Lol, dude do you remember that news article someone posted about Wilkes? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Lol, dude do you remember that news article someone posted about Wilkes? Really? I kind of miss him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link? https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_05_2013/post-2594-0-71932000-1367808175.jpg :lmao: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Why is that WilkesboroDude is even more relevant after his banning than he was before? The guy has been gone for over a year or two now, and yet he is consistently discussed on this forum. If his goal was to achieve notoriety or infamy before flaming out, he apparently achieved it. Because we are bored and it's entertaining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here's a good example for us to look at objectively. This is one of the best looks at the upcoming event from the 12Z 1/15 Euro -- 850 temps and surface features. This is a 9 day forecast. It didn't take too many more runs for this to vanish completely and then come back with a marginal event. Look at all of the unfavorable low pressure zones across the north and up into Canada. The black circle is roughly where the PV is located. And note the very marginal 850 temps (surface temps, not shown, are not favorable for most and there is no wedging that is going to be sustained through the event): Now, look at the difference in the D10 Euro from today. Big PV dropping in. Instead of lots of LPs running around, strong HP is building in. Much colder 850s are in the vicinity. And we have a storm system showing up in a good spot: The entire look is one of a much more severe and widespread winter storm than the upcoming warm snow event. Will it change? Probably. But it is not correct to compare the progs of both of these separate events as apples to apples. The setup 10 days from now is modeled to be much more favorable. And I'm not saying we haven't seen favorable looks, only to have them vanish. Because we have and we have. All I'm saying is that the 10 day out look is far better than the upcoming one ever was. We'll see if it holds. Excellent comparison CR. Much better set up modeled for that feb storm definitely. I will say in my own defense for buying into this weekend's storm, that both the EURO and GFS had pretty COLD runs at 850 there for a while, unfavorable lows or no. Perhaps that should have been the red flag. There was discussion on whether or not they were "good" or "bad". Evidently they were BAD! Looking forward to see if that look we're seeing stays and if the big fat red "L's" stay away from the US/Canada border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I will say this, for whatever reason we do get a lot of winter storms on Tues-Wed. Last year all the winter storms were on Tues-Wed, 1/25/2000 was a Tuesday, 1/2/2002 was a Wed. I could go on and on. 2/3/15 FTW. Book this one pack...It's gonna happen! I'd prefer the weekend due to my work but I won't complain. Unlike Brick, I have to go into work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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