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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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Does anyone see the irony in this weather pattern ? Its been pretty warm for about 5 weeks and we've had over 8" of rain. The cold comes in and it gets dry as a bone. Then it warms up again and rain returns ?

That's not ironic at all, just unfortunate, and also quite common. The reconfiguration in he pattern needed for very cold air tends to shut off the STJ and make the predominant flow from the NW instead of the SW. There's a lot of land to the NW and not a lot of water.
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Does anyone see the irony in this weather pattern ? Its been pretty warm for about 5 weeks and we've had over 8" of rain. The cold comes in and it gets dry as a bone. Then it warms up again and rain returns ?[/quote

The sad part is that pretty much sums up the reality of where we live. That is the normal pattern and the exceptions are when we get the two to coincide. That's why most of the time they do are with marginal cold and marginal precipitation; our dustings to a couple of inches, or our mixed bag events. Those make up 95 percent of our events outside the mountains. Unfortunately, having true cold and true precipitation coincide; Jan 88, March 93, Jan 2011, are extremely rare in the parts. That's why having a NOA block with active STJ are helpful. Looking for winter weather in the SE, outside the mountains, can be as frustrating as looking for rain in the Sahara.

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OK, just for you. After I post my observations from this thunderstorm, I'll stop posting for several days.

Btw, don't come at me with a pissy attitude because this winter has sucked so far.

I don't. I just get tired of reading the same redundant stuff without any data involved. If you think we are screwed throw up some maps and tell us why...the constant negativity and finally calling out someone for wishcasting is just silly. I welcome a winter cancel post with open arms, trust me I'd quote it in a second to engage in a healthy debate...but most of the time when I see them, there's no data, no maps, just someone upset because we haven't had snow yet. I'm very optimistic and the patten I see in mid month has a ton of potential, so, I definitely don't have a "pissy attitude because winter has sucked," those are your words.

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I'm saying that nothing in the next two weeks shows any sort of legitimate winter pattern, that's all.

After that? After Jan 20th? Sure, there are signs that you could call positive. But they've been 10-15 days away since December 10th.

It's hard to get excited anymore about D10+. All I'm saying.

Jonathan, you can't post anything negative in the SE forum. You say something others don't want to hear, you will get plastered. You made a great post on why there is nothing to see over the next 10 days.
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I don't. I just get tired of reading the same redundant stuff without any data involved. If you think we are screwed throw up some maps and tell us why...the constant negativity and finally calling out someone for wishcasting is just silly. I welcome a winter cancel post with open arms, trust me I'd quote it in a second to engage in a healthy debate...but most of the time when I see them, there's no data, no maps, just someone upset because we haven't had snow yet. I'm very optimistic and the patten I see in mid month has a ton of potential, so, I definitely don't have a "pissy attitude because winter has sucked," those are your words.

:clap: :clap: :clap:

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I don't. I just get tired of reading the same redundant stuff without any data involved. If you think we are screwed throw up some maps and tell us why...the constant negativity and finally calling out someone for wishcasting is just silly. I welcome a winter cancel post with open arms, trust me I'd quote it in a second to engage in a healthy debate...but most of the time when I see them, there's no data, no maps, just someone upset because we haven't had snow yet. I'm very optimistic and the patten I see in mid month has a ton of potential, so, I definitely don't have a "pissy attitude because winter has sucked," those are your words.

:clap:  :clap:  :clap:  :thumbsup:  :thumbsup:  :thumbsup:

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Jonathan, you can't post anything negative in the SE forum. You say something others don't want to hear, you will get plastered. You made a great post on why there is nothing to see over the next 10 days.

But I didn't post any maps. :(

But seriously. I think everyone is a bit on edge. Everyone's tired of hearing "optimistic about the pattern mid to late month!" because we've already been through that with December.

I think if a good pattern verifies by the end of this month (which it could) the negative Nancy's will be less aggressive.

We just want SOMETHING to verify. Anything. Instead of showing it 10+ days out, then ultimately not happening once we get there.

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I don't. I just get tired of reading the same redundant stuff without any data involved. If you think we are screwed throw up some maps and tell us why...the constant negativity and finally calling out someone for wishcasting is just silly. I welcome a winter cancel post with open arms, trust me I'd quote it in a second to engage in a healthy debate...but most of the time when I see them, there's no data, no maps, just someone upset because we haven't had snow yet. I'm very optimistic and the patten I see in mid month has a ton of potential, so, I definitely don't have a "pissy attitude because winter has sucked," those are your words.

This is the banter thread. In the discussion thread,about saying a winter storm in the next 10 days, that was pure wish casting. Did you see any data posted in there about why we may see a winter storm?

BTW I was not talking about Deltadog. He is a great met and backs up everything he says.

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But I didn't post any maps. :(

But seriously. I think everyone is a bit on edge. Everyone's tired of hearing "optimistic about the pattern mid to late month!" because we've already been through that with December.

I think if a good pattern verifies by the end of this month (which it could) the negative Nancy's will be less aggressive.

We just want SOMETHING to verify. Anything. Instead of showing it 10+ days out, then ultimately not happening once we get there.

Everyone's also tired of the constant "debbie Downer" posts that contribute nothing to the discussion.

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This is the banter thread. In the discussion thread,about saying a winter storm in the next 10 days, that was pure wish casting. Did you see any data posted in there about why we may see a winter storm?

BTW I was not talking about Deltadog. He is a great met and backs up everything he says.

 

I don't recall seeing anyone say outright with 100% certainty a winter storm was coming, only that the potential is there (for some folks). If there was a specific poster who said it, feel free to quote them here. There may be one, there may not be one.

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