Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Here's a good rule of thumb for you...a freebie of sorts: Clippers trend north. So, when you absorb, hear, see, read, etc. someone say that a clipper 5 days away looks awesome for NC to see snow, make plans to head to northern VA. Forget about models doing badly inside outside upside down of three days. Clippers trend north. Live by that rule, and you'll be right 99% of the time. If you hear someone say a clipper brings snow to Orlando in 5 days, then maybe, just maybe, you'll have a chance of seeing some flakes. It's all in the angle of the dangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 You don't like anything.O contraire monfret! I love chicken wings and beautiful women , and snow! Not necessarily in that order! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's all in the angle of the dangle. Which is directly proportional to the heat of the beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I know, but sometimes they have worked out for us. You'd think the models would get it right once outside 3 days, but it seems that only happens when they show warm and sunny. High pressure systems have a higher probability of being correct as modeled. They are a larger feature than a 100 mile across low pressure system that may or may not even form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Tried the cheddar bo, just like this winter, it sucked! I mean, love the cheese skirt, but it's just a damn biscuit with a piece of cheese! 100 pages of no winter and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 American cheese is the worst. Thanks! Did you finally learn to read the models data? He learned how to read Roberts Facebook page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Reading Is Futile! For your model reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 100 pages of no winter and counting. Indeed.....sigh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Reading Is Futile! For your model reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 100 pages of no winter and counting.LOL..I am out, I dropped my modeling subscriptions, except for AMWx to support Allan. LR sucks, no blocking, more of the same, ridging in the west with trough in the east but with no blocking it sucks for us. Great for people north of us though. Haven't looked at overnight models but let me guess the super clipper is coming in north and thus warmer, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LOL..I am out, I dropped my modeling subscriptions, except for AMWx to support Allan. LR sucks, no blocking, more of the same, ridging in the west with trough in the east but with no blocking it sucks for us. Great for people north of us though. Haven't looked at overnight models but let me guess the super clipper is coming in north and thus warmer, LOL. see you after the 12z eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LOL..I am out, I dropped my modeling subscriptions, except for AMWx to support Allan. LR sucks, no blocking, more of the same, ridging in the west with trough in the east but with no blocking it sucks for us. Great for people north of us though. Haven't looked at overnight models but let me guess the super clipper is coming in north and thus warmer, LOL. Pretty much. Temps are ok, but the 0z GFS was the only one that looked decent. Tracks the low through southern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah I can't believe we have a Miller A/Gulf Storm in late January with a great track, and it's a cold, cold, rain. Starting to think we get shut out this winter in CLT. I only wanted two things this winter, an active STJ and a -NAO. Didn't get it. I don't think Feb is going to be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So, CLT sees snow Friday while I get nada but a cold 33 degree rainstorm. lolz dis winter doe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Too soon to say yet. The models have been horrible lately outside 3 days. Now this is irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 High pressure systems have a higher probability of being correct as modeled. They are a larger feature than a 100 mile across low pressure system that may or may not even form. That, my friend, is a very good piece of information to remember. You could forecast only by high pressures and probably be right about 99% of the time out to 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There is no indication that February is going to change. We should be seeing massive signs right now in the late periods of modeling if it were going to happen. 2014-2015 is set. It's not favorable for snow for anyone south of I-40. Yeah I can't believe we have a Miller A/Gulf Storm in late January with a great track, and it's a cold, cold, rain. Starting to think we get shut out this winter in CLT. I only wanted two things this winter, an active STJ and a -NAO. Didn't get it. I don't think Feb is going to be any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That, my friend, is a very good piece of information to remember. You could forecast only by high pressures and probably be right about 99% of the time out to 5 days. Except when you need one to move in tandem with a low pressure system crossing the gulf states... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That, my friend, is a very good piece of information to remember. You could forecast only by high pressures and probably be right about 99% of the time out to 5 days. The 1% being when the model shows a good HP hanging out in the NE to promote good CAD 5 days out. Of course at D0, it's well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There is no indication that February is going to change. We should be seeing massive signs right now in the late periods of modeling if it were going to happen. 2014-2015 is set. It's not favorable for snow for anyone south of I-40. We haven't seen anything NORTH of I-40 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I wish I had a crystal ball like some of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We haven't seen anything NORTH of I-40 yet. I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah I can't believe we have a Miller A/Gulf Storm in late January with a great track, and it's a cold, cold, rain. Starting to think we get shut out this winter in CLT. I only wanted two things this winter, an active STJ and a -NAO. Didn't get it. I don't think Feb is going to be any different. Still holding at D10, but: ECMWFWEFSWCEF (Excellent -AO, -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, STJ) -- Great pattern: GFS (Nice +PNA, -EPO, STJ): CMC eh (Similar to Euro): Who knows...maybe this time, things will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There is no indication that February is going to change. We should be seeing massive signs right now in the late periods of modeling if it were going to happen. 2014-2015 is set. It's not favorable for snow for anyone south of I-40. are you saying that we could go the entire winter without a single snowflake or sleet pellet ? In my entire lifetime living here that has never occurred. Even in the dreadful winters of 05-06, 06-07, 11-12, 12-13 we at least saw something frozen falling out of the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Still holding at D10, but: ECMWFWEFSWCEF (Excellent -AO, -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, STJ) -- Great pattern: GFS (Nice +PNA, -EPO, STJ): CMC eh (Similar to Euro): Who knows...maybe this time, things will be different. Good post Cold Rain! I almost cancelled my model subscription yesterday but decided I'll give February a chance. We'd probably have better luck if I did cancel though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Good post Cold Rain! I almost cancelled my model subscription yesterday but decided I'll give February a chance. We'd probably have better luck if I did cancel though.... Nah! We're already down one subscription (see Packbacker), so we don't need to lose anymore heading into our big snow period! You did the right thing hanging on for another month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hopefully Feb will be like it was in 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Good post Cold Rain! I almost cancelled my model subscription yesterday but decided I'll give February a chance. We'd probably have better luck if I did cancel though.... let's all cancel our subscriptions! We need to let these models know we are tired of their crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.