rduwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It won't be long, you don't want to be the last one. I called shotgun earlier! Everyone else can have the backseat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Seasonable and normal are nearly interchangeable terms, 5 degrees above normal (even for a 5 day average) is hardly much of an anomaly & is commonly observed at some point in every season, even outside of winter... At those temperatures, you're not roasting... I never used the term "roasting". Again, as I mentioned, in my many years of professional experience, +5F above (or -5F below) is not considered seasonable. Have you observed otherwise in your profession? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We are going to get a big snow this winter. You don't want to be over the cliff when it comes, do you? Yes, snow is dead to me after Feb 20th. Pre-emergent goes out Valentines day or so and soccer starts up. I want to roast...oh I mean be seasonably warm to mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I never used the term "roasting". Again, as I mentioned, in my many years of professional experience, +5F above (or -5F below) is not considered seasonable. Have you observed otherwise in your profession? What do you consider "seasonable"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I called shotgun earlier! Everyone else can have the backseat. I really thought going through 05-08 was going to be the worst stretch of winters we would have to experience for a while but with 11/12, 12/13 and now 14/15 we are darn close. I could argue that 13/14 was a let down with getting fringed so bad to the west and then to the east on the Jan 28th and Feb 12th events and then just missing the early March event. But that seems to be the norm now. And let's not forget that debacle that was Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I never used the term "roasting". Again, as I mentioned, in my many years of professional experience, +5F above (or -5F below) is not considered seasonable. Have you observed otherwise in your profession? I never accused you of using the term "roasting" & it's really a matter of opinion... The occurrence of temperatures 5F or -5F from normal is common enough to be termed as "seasonable". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'll take the cold from last January's event and the moisture from this upcoming event. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I really thought going through 05-08 was going to be the worst stretch of winters we would have to experience for a while but with 11/12, 12/13 and now 14/15 we are darn close. I could argue that 13/14 was a let down with getting fringed so bad to the west and then to the east on the Jan 28th and Feb 12th events and then just missing the early March event. But that seems to be the norm now. And let's not forget that debacle that was Jan 2011. Yeah its been a brutal lately. "Thread the needle" is becoming a yearly term for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hopefully we do not get another cold March. Two of them in a row is enough. I'm hoping for a March like 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I never accused you of using the term "roasting" & it's really a matter of opinion... The occurrence of temperatures 5F or -5F from normal is common enough to be termed as "seasonable". Let's just leave it at that...a matter of opinion. It has been many years since I have been on weather boards so I will need to remember I am not writing or editing manuscripts for publication here...just having some fun talking about the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hopefully we do not get another cold March. Two of them in a row is enough. I'm hoping for a March like 2012. I was thinking the same thing. A repeat of March 2012 would be nice. We were 10 degrees above normal that month ! To me, there's no point in having a cold March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Let's just leave it at that...a matter of opinion. It has been many years since I have been on weather boards so I will need to remember I am not writing or editing manuscripts for publication here...just having some fun talking about the weather. Neither am I, but I challenge you to look @ the data for yourself before you solidify your opinion... http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=rah The occurrence of temperatures at or exceeding +/-5F from normal is very common here in central NC, or throughout much of the southeastern US for that matter, hence why I used the term "seasonable". There does come a point when actual data trumps even what may superficially appear as a viable opinion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Time for Mack's fishing and garden thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KCLT&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec I'm riding that 12z GFS to the bank for the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hopefully we do not get another cold March. Two of them in a row is enough. I'm hoping for a March like 2012.what about a cold April too? We did not get any leaves on the trees here till well into may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Neither am I, but I challenge you to look @ the data for yourself before you solidify your opinion... http://www.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=rah The occurrence of temperatures at or exceeding +/-5F from normal is very common here in central NC, or throughout much of the southeastern US for that matter, hence why I used the term "seasonable". There does come a point when actual data trumps even what may superficially appear as a viable opinion... I am not even sure what you are talking about here at this point. Where do you work in the profession may I ask? What exactly are you "challenging" me to do?. For full disclosure, I am a numerical weather prediction scientist with over 15 years in the profession. I earned my BS, MS and PhD degrees in atmospheric science. In NWP science and verification parlance, +/-5F is certainly not termed "seasonable" or "normal"...although those are not terms that we use for verification. Perhaps those terms are used more frequently in your part of field for those thresholds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am not even sure what you are talking about here at this point. Where do you work in the profession may I ask? What exactly are you "challenging" me to do?. For full disclosure, I am a numerical weather prediction scientist with over 15 years in the profession. I earned my BS, MS and PhD degrees in atmospheric science. In NWP science and verification parlance, +/-5F is certainly not termed "seasonable" or "normal"...although those are not terms that we use for verification. Perhaps those terms are used more frequently in your part of field for those thresholds. He's a smart guy but he's only a teenager. Doesn't have a profession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am not even sure what you are talking about here at this point. Where do you work in the profession may I ask? What exactly are you "challenging" me to do?. For full disclosure, I am a numerical weather prediction scientist with over 15 years in the profession. I earned my BS, MS and PhD degrees in atmospheric science. In NWP science and verification parlance, +/-5F is certainly not termed "seasonable" or "normal"...although those are not terms that we use for verification. Perhaps those terms are used more frequently in your part of field for those thresholds. Wow... Go get your red tag with all of those degrees (message a moderator or staff member through PM) You are highly qualified, please post more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 what about a cold April too? We did not get any leaves on the trees here till well into may I don't really want a cold April either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 He's a smart guy but he's only a teenager. Doesn't have a profession. Thanks for the information. It is great to see young folks so interested in the weather. This looks like a great group of people here with much passion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am not even sure what you are talking about here at this point. Where do you work in the profession may I ask? What exactly are you "challenging" me to do?. For full disclosure, I am a numerical weather prediction scientist with over 15 years in the profession. I earned my BS, MS and PhD degrees in atmospheric science. In NWP science and verification parlance, +/-5F is certainly not termed "seasonable" or "normal"...although those are not terms that we use for verification. Perhaps those terms are used more frequently in your part of field for those thresholds. All I'm saying is here's the actual data (which goes back in many stations to 1887), go out & prove it to me that +/-5F is somehow not "seasonable" & then we'll talk. I could really care less about what degree you hold or your prior experiences, I'm just interested in what the data says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 nwp and webber, would you mind taking your intense discussion, which is interesting, to banter. It isn't all that relevant to pattern discussion imo. Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 nwp and webber, would you mind taking your intense discussion, which is interesting, to banter. It isn't all that relevant to pattern discussion imo. Please? Oh yeah it's really interesting. +5 for a day, seasonal(ish). +5 for a week, warm. +5 for a month, torch. It's all about the size of the data set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All I'm saying is here's the actual data (which goes back in many stations to 1887), go out & prove it to me that +/-5F is somehow not "seasonable" & then we'll talk. I could really care less about what degree you hold or your prior experiences, I'm just interested in what the data says... And, that's about where it would be a good idea to take the advice I gave you earlier in the PBP thread. Come on, man. Respect the knowledge and the degrees. They don't hand 'em out for free. You'll have yours in a few years, I'm quite sure. There are other ways to make your points without belittling the individual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Oh yeah it's really interesting. +5 for a day, seasonal(ish). +5 for a week, warm. +5 for a month, torch. It's all about the size of the data set. yep, nwp was correct in this case. Even +5 for a day it's a stretch to call it seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All I'm saying is here's the actual data (which goes back in many stations to 1887), go out & prove it to me that +/-5F is somehow not "seasonable" & then we'll talk. I could really care less about what degree you hold or your prior experiences, I'm just interested in what the data says... It is great to see folks with such a passion for the weather. Just to be clear, there is nothing to "prove" or "disprove" here about the +/-5F thresholds. In my profession, those thresholds are not considered "seasonable" or "normal"...period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am not even sure what you are talking about here at this point. Where do you work in the profession may I ask? What exactly are you "challenging" me to do?. For full disclosure, I am a numerical weather prediction scientist with over 15 years in the profession. I earned my BS, MS and PhD degrees in atmospheric science. In NWP science and verification parlance, +/-5F is certainly not termed "seasonable" or "normal"...although those are not terms that we use for verification. Perhaps those terms are used more frequently in your part of field for those thresholds. This is from the NWS in Raleigh. They define the "normal" temperature range with about 18-20 degree spread, meaning that +/- 8-10F from "average" is considered normal or seasonable. Thus far this month Raleigh has averaged about -1.45F below normal, the winter thus far since December 1st, +.234, both are fairly close to normal in their own respect. The US temperature distribution in the first half of the month closely followed my Warm Neutral-Weak El Nino composites, however just like in December, a more "traditional" El Nino look is trying to take over w/ the core of the cold being centered towards Texas... We should end up w/ the core of the coldest anoms. vs normals in the SE US & on the E coast in February, which is essentially a colder modification of December in a broad sense. It is great to see folks with such a passion for the weather. Just to be clear, there is nothing to "prove" or "disprove" here about the +/-5F thresholds. In my profession, those thresholds are not considered "seasonable" or "normal"...period. Ok then, I'm going to ask the same question as Dacula, what do you define as "normal" or seasonable, because this is obviously going against what the NWS & I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's all about the size of the data set. NOT TRUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All I'm saying is here's the actual data (which goes back in many stations to 1887), go out & prove it to me that +/-5F is somehow not "seasonable" & then we'll talk. I could really care less about what degree you hold or your prior experiences, I'm just interested in what the data says... Back off, and I mean right now. You in way over your head here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Back to pattern discussion. The forum will likely love the look of the EPS late 6-10+. It is a beautiful +PNA and stronger than what the 0Z EPS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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