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January Banter


mackerel_sky

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Yeah, context and emotion and tone are often hard to convey in written form. In a one-off post or comment, it can be very easy to make an incorrect judgment about someone's intent. However, it becomes easier to decipher over the course of many comments. Patterns emerge and you can get to the point where you can make a pretty reasonable judgment about where someone is coming from.

I agree, made the same mistake myself the other day with the bobbitt joke. But i aplogized and moved on no need to make a big deal. Sometimes its about being the mature one and being able to let the water keep on flowin.
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This is true but I have seen nothing on the models so far to get excited about.  If things change on the models, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong.  But it's going to take more than something showing up at hour 300 of the gfs for me to get excited.

 

 

Check out the 6z GFS in the LR.  It's gonna hit...one of these times, right? :)

 

We need some blocking and I haven't seen anything that's changing that.  Yeah the strat is showing some warming for early Feb, but even if it split again by mid-Feb it would take a week or so to have it affect the AO.  So that ship has sailed, why would we all of a sudden get blocking without the help from a strat event?  I don't know, seems unlikely.

 

Yeah we can get snow the first week of March but our temps start rocketing by then.  If we are relying on March to deliver snow, which can happen but it's the exception for sure.  Look at last March, a big coastal, 35F rain.

 

The EPO has been negative a lot this winter, but the one time we need it to help deliver some cold this week for the coastal it's positive.  It's just bad timing, bad luck, whatever you want to call it.  Losing out on coastals in the heart of winter is not the recipe for having a snowy winter.  It's not like we get these nice tracking coastals every week.

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We need some blocking and I haven't seen anything that's changing that.  Yeah the strat is showing some warming for early Feb, but even if it split again by mid-Feb it would take a week or so to have it affect the AO.  So that ship has sailed, why would we all of a sudden get blocking without the help from a strat event?  I don't know, seems unlikely.

 

Yeah we can get snow the first week of March but our temps start rocketing by then.  If we are relying on March to deliver snow, which can happen but it's the exception for sure.  Look at last March, a big coastal, 35F rain.

 

The EPO has been negative a lot this winter, but the one time we need it to help deliver some cold this week for the coastal it's positive.  It's just bad timing, bad luck, whatever you want to call it.  Losing out on coastals in the heart of winter is not the recipe for having a snowy winter.  It's not like we get these nice tracking coastals every week.

 

I think seeing last nights gfs run is what sent me over the edge.  Seeing a perfect track for RDU snow storms coming in at night on 1/24 and it be a rainstorm is just a slap in the face.  And it isn't even close w/ temps.  If I'm just going to be left w/ a sloppy 2" March snow or some crappy clipper, I'd just rather have nothing.  That's just me.  Different strokes for different folks.

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I think seeing last nights gfs run is what sent me over the edge.  Seeing a perfect track for RDU snow storms coming in at night on 1/24 and it be a rainstorm is just a slap in the face.  And it isn't even close w/ temps.  If I'm just going to be left w/ a sloppy 2" March snow or some crappy clipper, I'd just rather have nothing.  That's just me.  Different strokes for different folks.

 

In the past this would give us snow more often than not. It doesn't seem to be that way lately.

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This winter and fourm reminds me of "Electric Light Orchestra" Showdown. It's raining all over the world" thats our winter so far an heres webber with the mods "Bout to be a showdown!" lol for entertainment only.

ELO is da bomb! Seriously, they're one of my favorites and Jeff Lynn mentioned wx in a lot of songs.

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Because of the scarcity of 60 degrees in Raleigh. Its not going to be 60 degrees in Raleigh on Thursday, so clearly it won't snow in Raleigh on Friday.

 

That track this time of year would give us snow more often here than not in the past. The whole thing about the warmer days here in winter before getting snow is true, too. It has happened many times in the past here. You don't live here, so you don't know.

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That track this time of year would give us snow more often here than not in the past. The whole thing about the warmer days here in winter before getting snow is true, too. It has happened many times in the past here. You don't live here, so you don't know.

Its also been cold in Raleigh when snow has fallen many times in the past.
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That track this time of year would give us snow more often here than not in the past. The whole thing about the warmer days here in winter before getting snow is true, too. It has happened many times in the past here. You don't live here, so you don't know.

 

It's much more frequent to have warm days in the winter in NC than it is to have snowstorms.  So statistically, while you might find correlation of warmth a few days before snow, it's meaningless, in that it's not causal.  I don't understand why you keep bringing that up.

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It's much more frequent to have warm days in the winter in NC than it is to have snowstorms.  So statistically, while you might find correlation of warmth a few days before snow, it's meaningless, in that it's not causal.  I don't understand why you keep bringing that up.

 

Just saying that it is not unusual to happen here and to have a glimmer of hope. 

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It's much more frequent to have warm days in the winter in NC than it is to have snowstorms.  So statistically, while you might find correlation of warmth a few days before snow, it's meaningless, in that it's not causal.  I don't understand why you keep bringing that up.

Really?

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Just saying that it is not unusual to happen here and to have a glimmer of hope. 

 

It's not unusual, you're right.  It might even be more common than not.  That's not what should offer you hope, though.  The CFS for Feb should help with the hope thing...although not sure how much.

 

Really?

 

Well, yeah, I should know by now.

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