Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Oh yeah...Still waiting. Haha! That sounds just about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeah, context and emotion and tone are often hard to convey in written form. In a one-off post or comment, it can be very easy to make an incorrect judgment about someone's intent. However, it becomes easier to decipher over the course of many comments. Patterns emerge and you can get to the point where you can make a pretty reasonable judgment about where someone is coming from.I agree, made the same mistake myself the other day with the bobbitt joke. But i aplogized and moved on no need to make a big deal. Sometimes its about being the mature one and being able to let the water keep on flowin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I agree, made the same mistake myself the other day with the bobbitt joke. But i aplogized and moved on no need to make a big deal. Sometimes its about being the mature one and being able to let the water keep on flowin. Yup, that is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This is true but I have seen nothing on the models so far to get excited about. If things change on the models, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. But it's going to take more than something showing up at hour 300 of the gfs for me to get excited. Check out the 6z GFS in the LR. It's gonna hit...one of these times, right? We need some blocking and I haven't seen anything that's changing that. Yeah the strat is showing some warming for early Feb, but even if it split again by mid-Feb it would take a week or so to have it affect the AO. So that ship has sailed, why would we all of a sudden get blocking without the help from a strat event? I don't know, seems unlikely. Yeah we can get snow the first week of March but our temps start rocketing by then. If we are relying on March to deliver snow, which can happen but it's the exception for sure. Look at last March, a big coastal, 35F rain. The EPO has been negative a lot this winter, but the one time we need it to help deliver some cold this week for the coastal it's positive. It's just bad timing, bad luck, whatever you want to call it. Losing out on coastals in the heart of winter is not the recipe for having a snowy winter. It's not like we get these nice tracking coastals every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We need some blocking and I haven't seen anything that's changing that. Yeah the strat is showing some warming for early Feb, but even if it split again by mid-Feb it would take a week or so to have it affect the AO. So that ship has sailed, why would we all of a sudden get blocking without the help from a strat event? I don't know, seems unlikely. Yeah we can get snow the first week of March but our temps start rocketing by then. If we are relying on March to deliver snow, which can happen but it's the exception for sure. Look at last March, a big coastal, 35F rain. The EPO has been negative a lot this winter, but the one time we need it to help deliver some cold this week for the coastal it's positive. It's just bad timing, bad luck, whatever you want to call it. Losing out on coastals in the heart of winter is not the recipe for having a snowy winter. It's not like we get these nice tracking coastals every week. I think seeing last nights gfs run is what sent me over the edge. Seeing a perfect track for RDU snow storms coming in at night on 1/24 and it be a rainstorm is just a slap in the face. And it isn't even close w/ temps. If I'm just going to be left w/ a sloppy 2" March snow or some crappy clipper, I'd just rather have nothing. That's just me. Different strokes for different folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This winter and fourm reminds me of "Electric Light Orchestra" Showdown. It's raining all over the world" thats our winter so far an heres webber with the mods "Bout to be a showdown!" lol for entertainment only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Meanwhile, in Durham... http://www.wral.com/body-found-tuesday-near-nccu/14370703/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think seeing last nights gfs run is what sent me over the edge. Seeing a perfect track for RDU snow storms coming in at night on 1/24 and it be a rainstorm is just a slap in the face. And it isn't even close w/ temps. If I'm just going to be left w/ a sloppy 2" March snow or some crappy clipper, I'd just rather have nothing. That's just me. Different strokes for different folks. In the past this would give us snow more often than not. It doesn't seem to be that way lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Only need the models to cool the temps by 10 degrees in two days, we be in bidness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm going to take a stab at the future and say it's still rain for mby It is nice to see the gfs find it again Do you actually like cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I wish we could get another Carolina Crusher that no one saw coming until the last minute. That was supposed to be just rain, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 In the past this would give us snow more often than not. It doesn't seem to be that way lately.Because of the scarcity of 60 degrees in Raleigh. Its not going to be 60 degrees in Raleigh on Thursday, so clearly it won't snow in Raleigh on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I wish we could get another Carolina Crusher that no one saw coming until the last minute. That was supposed to be just rain, too. Modeling is a lot better these days. I doubt we'll ever see something like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This winter and fourm reminds me of "Electric Light Orchestra" Showdown. It's raining all over the world" thats our winter so far an heres webber with the mods "Bout to be a showdown!" lol for entertainment only. ELO is da bomb! Seriously, they're one of my favorites and Jeff Lynn mentioned wx in a lot of songs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Because of the scarcity of 60 degrees in Raleigh. Its not going to be 60 degrees in Raleigh on Thursday, so clearly it won't snow in Raleigh on Friday. That track this time of year would give us snow more often here than not in the past. The whole thing about the warmer days here in winter before getting snow is true, too. It has happened many times in the past here. You don't live here, so you don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Do you actually like cold rain? Yes, he's one of the good guys Any rain is good rain after years and years of being in a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That track this time of year would give us snow more often here than not in the past. The whole thing about the warmer days here in winter before getting snow is true, too. It has happened many times in the past here. You don't live here, so you don't know.Its also been cold in Raleigh when snow has fallen many times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That track this time of year would give us snow more often here than not in the past. The whole thing about the warmer days here in winter before getting snow is true, too. It has happened many times in the past here. You don't live here, so you don't know. It's much more frequent to have warm days in the winter in NC than it is to have snowstorms. So statistically, while you might find correlation of warmth a few days before snow, it's meaningless, in that it's not causal. I don't understand why you keep bringing that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z GFS is a borderline HECS for DC. Shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Its also been cold in Raleigh when snow has fallen many times in the past. Can you not be such a smartass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's much more frequent to have warm days in the winter in NC than it is to have snowstorms. So statistically, while you might find correlation of warmth a few days before snow, it's meaningless, in that it's not causal. I don't understand why you keep bringing that up. Just saying that it is not unusual to happen here and to have a glimmer of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's much more frequent to have warm days in the winter in NC than it is to have snowstorms. So statistically, while you might find correlation of warmth a few days before snow, it's meaningless, in that it's not causal. I don't understand why you keep bringing that up. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sorry, I thought this was the banter thread and not the pinned discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sorry, I thought this was the banter thread and not the pinned discussion thread.Banhammer about to bust some Bricks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Can you not be such a smartass?You are the one that keeps bringing that **** up. We live in the SE. Of course its going to be warm before many snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just saying that it is not unusual to happen here and to have a glimmer of hope. It's not unusual, you're right. It might even be more common than not. That's not what should offer you hope, though. The CFS for Feb should help with the hope thing...although not sure how much. Really? Well, yeah, I should know by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This may be trending towards a slightly warmer repeat of Jan 1 1987 now. That was a decent snow in most of the mountains and the western foothills of NC. The I-85 corridor saw mostly rain from that storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This may be trending towards a slightly warmer repeat of Jan 1 1987 now. That was a decent snow in most of the mountains and the western foothills of NC. The I-85 corridor saw mostly rain from that storm though. Shetley, man you gotta be pumped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I just won;t post anymore until we actually get something this winter. Folks are way too high strung now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You are the one that keeps bringing that **** up. We live in the SE. Of course its going to be warm before many snowstorms. You and I live in the southeast. He lives near Raleigh. Our climates are way different than his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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