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January Banter Thread


H2O

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I mean this as no disrespect to nws lwx, the last two storms were difficult situations and I think the initial forecasts made 36-48 hours out were good bases on best guidance at that time. But over the years it seems that the nws is slow to react to changing situations. That's the only thing I don't understand. For instance it was very clear by evening Friday that the warning in nw va was not going to verify but they stuck with it until the storm was just about over. With today some of the 4-6" forecasts were shot when the initial precip went north of us last night but again the stuck with a forecast made on older guidance. I know this will ruffle feathers as we are all prideful of our work but maybe there is a reason why the lag time in adjusting to changes and I really would like to know what it might be. I really am not picking a fight and say this with utmost respect to people who do a difficult job.

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If anyone (other than my family) gives a sh-t what I think, this is what I gave them (total for both days):

DC: 1-3"

Columbia: 2-5"

Baltimore: 2-5"

Bel Air: 5-9"

Cecil county: 6-10"

 

 

I honestly think that is bullish for balt south. If we were going to be colder overnight I think that might be ok. I have a hunch that the 95 corridor gets skunked (or a slushy 1" or less) overnight and morning that melts off before anything refires later in the day. And anything that does refire will likely be hit and miss and quicker to exit than we think, This one really has that feel of a complete SJ until you get up into the norther tier and 30+ miles west.

 

Bel Air and Cecil are proably in the best spot for boom but it's going to be dependent on a lot of things breaking right. And nothing has broken right with this one so far it seems. I'm questioning whether I get an honest inch to measure.  

Feeling cautiously optimistic that the low end of this (at least) will verify for DC/Columbia/Baltimore.  North parts of DC have about 0.5" already and Columbia/Baltimore area has around 0.75-1.5".  The Harford County/Cecil County part looks to bust hard unless the western edge fills back in.  

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I mean this as no disrespect to nws lwx, the last two storms were difficult situations and I think the initial forecasts made 36-48 hours out were good bases on best guidance at that time. But over the years it seems that the nws is slow to react to changing situations. That's the only thing I don't understand. For instance it was very clear by evening Friday that the warning in nw va was not going to verify but they stuck with it until the storm was just about over. With today some of the 4-6" forecasts were shot when the initial precip went north of us last night but again the stuck with a forecast made on older guidance. I know this will ruffle feathers as we are all prideful of our work but maybe there is a reason why the lag time in adjusting to changes and I really would like to know what it might be. I really am not picking a fight and say this with utmost respect to people who do a difficult job.

 

They didn't just stick with it, mine actually went up to 6-8 in the WSW.

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Feeling cautiously optimistic that the low end of this (at least) will verify for DC/Columbia/Baltimore.  North parts of DC have about 0.5" already and Columbia/Baltimore area has around 0.75-1.5".  The Harford County/Cecil County part looks to bust hard unless the western edge fills back in.  

 

We are used to the NE MD jackpot illusion.

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Gotta love kids. Wife took ours to the Dr. today. Why? Just the usual peanut lodged in the nostril. Tried everything to get it out, but it was in there good. 

 

a while back when the hubby was out of town, K decided to get creative and stick a cheerio up her nose. Freaked me out. Thankfully, she didn't stick it up too far and i was able to pull it out with tweezers. I walk away to throw away the cheerio and she sticks another up there. I could see it. so I left it there until she was done eating, crying the entire time.

 

Hasn't stuck anything up her nose since. 

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She did the same thing one time with eggs, but those came out with no problem. Just got off the phone with my wife and the ped Dr couldn't get it out so she had to take her to the ENT down the road. 

 

Oh fun! I remember one of my sisters stuck a bead up her nose... wayyyyy up there. Had to take her to an ENT to remove it with a very long, skinny tweezer thing. 

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