WoodbineWX Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'm almost ready for convection season at this point. Same, we do severe better anyways, granted we still suck at that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np9tBI7_nq8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Ill stop clogging up the real nyc...i mean mid atlantic storm thread now. Fwiw, id give up 1/2 my total if it meant you guys got a decent storm and sne got screwed. It's all good... enjoy your HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Dear sweet tiny baby Jesus, just let the RAP and HRRR be right, just this once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 In case anyone wants a primer on a Norlun Trough: http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html First, what is a "Norlun Instability Trough?" A trough is a weak disturbance in the atmosphere - in this case, near the surface - marked by lower surface barometric pressure that results from converging wind direction and speed. Surface convergence of air results in rising air (afterall, air converging at the surface must go either up or down, and clearly can't go into the ground), and rising air produces clouds and precipitation. Hence, troughs can focus locally heavier bands of precipitation. It was noted by operational forecasters Steve NOgueiRa and Weir LUNdstedt (Nor-Lun) that these troughs, when inverted (extending northwest from a surface low) and beneath a middle and upper level atmospheric cold pool, could result in very strong, localized bands of precipitation. On occasion, these narrow but intense bands of snow could produce in excess of one foot of snow, and largely were missed by computer guidance. Mr. Norgueira and Lundstedt both worked to find methods of forecasting these events, even when computer modeling missed them. Since their initial study in 1992, computer modeling has improved significantly, and these events often are projected in advance, though placement and intensity continues to be a challenge, especially in more complex setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If we can get a widespread 1"+, at least we'll get contoured on the NESIS map of this storm when it's all done. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Why is Norlun Trough position sometimes difficult to forecast? The advancement of atmospheric modeling technology in the 2000s has vastly improved the ability to forecast location of Norlun Troughs. There are a few issues that still are significant obstacles to the operational forecaster, however, most noteably total precipitation amount (QPF forecast) and placement/development of Norlun troughs when more than one inverted trough is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Dear sweet tiny baby Jesus, just let the RAP and HRRR be right, just this once. This post is a perfect example of why we need a like button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 how father nature treats me during winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 If we can get a widespread 1"+, at least we'll get contoured on the NESIS map of this storm when it's all done. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis No way, if we go down, I want us to drag the NESIS rating down with us so that we don't have to be reminded of this POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Can those who are getting a historic blizzard pony up to get the board to its goal? Maybe they can make up a little bit for continually crashing the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Can those who are getting a historic blizzard pony up to get the board to its goal? Maybe they can make up a little bit for continually crashing the site. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 IMHO this is slowly going down in flames for NYC, but they don't realize it yet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 IMHO this is slowly going down in flames for NYC, but they don't realize it yet. lol I hope not. A blizzard in Manhattan is pretty cool even if I can only watch it from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 As I said a couple days ago, things around here are never as bad as they are about to be.... DT honking that the Euro showing a major snowstorm next week for guess who? That's right, southern VA and NC. Euro map shows 12-18 inches there with the standard pity 1" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 IMHO this is slowly going down in flames for NYC, but they don't realize it yet. lol The Euro still gives them 20-30+, so I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 As I said a couple days ago, things around here are never as bad as they are about to be.... DT honking that the Euro showing a major snowstorm next week for guess who? That's right, southern VA and NC. Euro map shows 12-18 inches here with the standard pity 1" here. So you'd rather be in the bullseye a week away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So you'd rather be in the bullseye a week away? Don't care about bullseye at all. Just a bad day to see the next storm system suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Can those who are getting a historic blizzard pony up to get the board to its goal? Maybe they can make up a little bit for continually crashing the site. its not the site itself. its being DDos attacked. so, not much the software/memory can do to prevent that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Don't care about bullseye at all. Just a bad day to see the next storm system suppressed. You just contradicted yourself. If you don't care about the bullseye, then why does it matter to you that you're fringed a week away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 You just contradicted yourself. If you don't care about the bullseye, then why does it matter to you that you're fringed a week away? don't see the contradiction at all. there is a big difference between fringe and bullseye, and in-between those two is a solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Euro still gives them 20-30+, so I don't think so. Yeah I know, hug the model that gives you the most snow and toss the GFS, etc. Who knows, maybe it'll work out... but its insane from a climo standpoint how many of these storms NYC has gotten in the last 12 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I want to be in the bullseye on every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 #blobsnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 don't see the contradiction at all. there is a big difference between fringe and bullseye, and in-between those two is a solid event. The Euro gives you close to 6"... which as far as our climo is concerned, is a nice solid event. Somehow you're still not satisfied with that. Yeah I know, hug the model that gives you the most snow and toss the GFS, etc. Who knows, maybe it'll work out... but its insane from a climo standpoint how many of these storms NYC has gotten in the last 12 years or so. The Euro works far better for big coastal storms. Feb 2014, Feb 2013, and probably this one too. And yep... NYC has been on an epic winning streak with KU storms for the past 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 The Euro gives you close to 6"... which as far as our climo is concerned, is a nice solid event. Somehow you're still not satisfied with that. I mis-read the Euro map a bit; that's more than I thought at first glance. Doesn't matter anyway; it has 6 days left to trend worse. The Euro has given me about 4 feet of Day 6 snow so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I mis-read the Euro map a bit; that's more than I thought at first glance. Doesn't matter anyway; it has 6 days left to trend worse. The Euro has given me about 4 feet of Day 6 snow so far this winter. why do you even bother if weather causes you such misery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This is me in coastal De. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Dear sweet tiny baby Jesus, just let the RAP and HRRR be right, just this once. Lol! Thanks for the reminder. That scene is the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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