Jebman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Another thing about our storms is staying power. A 6" front end dump that turns to slush and mud shortly after it shuts off is not nearly as attractive as what we just experienced. To have 2-4" of dry powder 3 days after it falls is pretty special in these parts. What was particularly special about this storm was the setting up of that band about 10 miles to my north. Fairfax got destroyed by 4 inches of fluffy powder and had high-end traffic jams for hours, while Dale City got to enjoy snowTV, no slippery roads, no traffic jams, and 3 days later I can hardly believe we still have a half inch of powder on the northeast side of every hill. I didn't break my back shoveling snow either FTW. This was the best snowstorm I have ever experienced, far better than 1995-96, 2002-3, 2009-10 or 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Another thing about our storms is staying power. A 6" front end dump that turns to slush and mud shortly after it shuts off is not nearly as attractive as what we just experienced. To have 2-4" of dry powder 3 days after it falls is pretty special in these parts. We're a pretender snow town, sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This is probably one of the most wintry feeling several day stretches I've seen since I've lived here. Last year was intense for quick period but had no staying power in general. Well, I guess the second cold shot in Jan was impressive.. Still, a top 5 or so for cold/snow/wind mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This is probably one of the most wintry feeling several day stretches I've seen since I've lived here. Last year was intense for quick period but had no staying power in general. Well, I guess the second cold shot in Jan was impressive.. Still, a top 5 or so. If it lasts longer than 4 hours call Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 We're a pretender snow town, sometimes. It's big picture pleasure. Outside of the never phail locations, we just had a big serving of chicken dinner. And it was spicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Late to add my thoughts, but imo SECS/MECS/HECS depends on impact to entire coast. Sorta like NESIS. NESIS 1- low end 2 =SECS NESIS high end 2-low end 4 =MECS NESIS high end 4 - 5 =HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I tend to agree with the previous poster but it's a long coast. Maybe the cut off should be dc to nyc. Who cares about NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Disregard. Found the stickies. #newtapatalksucks I came back to re-edit this again to say the new tapatalk really does suck. I've been checking here for a week wondering why there is no longer maps and model analysis with two threats out there. Little did I know those sticky threads require a different entry point in tapatalk. I get it now and will grow used to it but whoa for a second (well, a week) I was like wtf all there is now is banter and memories of old storms on this site. Now I am like ahhhhhhhh. I see...... pretty funny to me now that I look back on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 SECS is definitely more than 2-4 inches Yeah, I'd call that moderate rather than significant.... significant to me is warning criteria (4.5" and up) Wow, really? Not even Hartford can say that.. Looking at my criteria, I have seen two BECS' already You were real close with my elevation too. I had to look it up. After Baltimore broke its record during PDII, I realized that when it comes to our top-tier snowstorms, we're not all that different from southern New England. Based on available records, a 20" snowstorm is just as likely to happen in Baltimore as it is in Boston. And like the rest of the northeast it gets even better the further N/W you go. I can only imagine comparing Westminster vs Worcester . It's just so much harder for us to get normal snow events, and it's a bit warmer too. After 12/09 was officially dropped down to 18.0", the 19.5" February blizzard was bumped up to #9, with 12/09 slipping to #10. Your definition of MECS also leaves a big jump to a HECS. What about the storms between 12 and 18" ? Was 2/13 from last season a MECS or a HECS? Thanks for the correction. Not sure how I missed that. Good point on the scale. I think 4" is a good low number for SECS. Maybe the SECS is 4-8", MECS is 8-14" and HECS is >14? I'm not sure there's a point in recognizing BECS. HECS is historical for a reason. And for most places around here, anything above 14" is gonna be a top 20 storm. Maybe that's too loose of criteria for an HECS. I kinda like the numbers you came up with for each category. A HECS in my opinion is harder to define than the other two. I have always used 4-8 to define a SECS. As far as a MECS goes there needs to be a widespread storm average in the region of 8-12 inches. So for instance if you took the storm totals from 20 sites over a 50 mile radius and came up with an average of say 10.5 that would meet the MECS definition. I'm sure others would view it differently because there is so much room open for interpretation. Nice discussion. I agree with 4-5" being the low end of a SECS, something close to warning criteria. I'd draw the line for a MECS at a clean 10", maybe a bit lower (8"?) for the coastal plain... so I basically agree with HighStakes. For a HECS, local climo really comes into play. In DCA, I'd say 15" is a good number, especially since a lot of their famous historic events were in the 16-18" range. For BWI and IAD, 18" seems like a good cutoff since that's where the top 10 ends (or top 5 in IAD, which is more appropriate given its short period of records). As for colder places like Westminster, who knows?? Maybe 19" there is merely a MECS total And another important point, HECS totals need to be area-wide to qualify IMO. That's what distinguishes January 1996, PDII, and February 2010 from storms like Jan 2000, Feb 2006, and Feb 2014, where some HECS totals happened but were very localized and scattered. I consider those three major but not historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 so, from what i can tell in the MR/LR range thread is I can expect some ice Monday morning before a cold rain. Cool. I'll plan on working from home just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 so, from what i can tell in the MR/LR range thread is I can expect some ice Monday morning before a cold rain. Cool. I'll plan on working from home just in case. Yeah, it's looking like up to 0.1" of freezing rain N+W of I-95 north of DC just in time for morning rush hour on Monday. Models scour out the cold pretty quick after daybreak... not sure how reliable the timing on it ending is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Yeah, it's looking like up to 0.1" of freezing rain N+W of I-95 north of DC just in time for morning rush hour on Monday. Models scour out the cold pretty quick after daybreak... not sure how reliable the timing on it ending is. GFS gives me ~.25 before the switch over. We shall see how the models trend over the weekend. I know ice/CAD is harder to forecast on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Wxlvr, I moved your job post to the "Weather Marketplace" forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlvr Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Wxlvr, I moved your job post to the "Weather Marketplace" forum. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Does anyone know of a site of past weather where I could search for specific days by inputting parameters? For example, find the dates at BWI where the air temperature fell below 10 degrees and wind chill advisories. Edit: My guess is that there isn't a database that will be as specific as I would like it to be, but one more question. Is there a way to search for past weather alerts (advisories, warnings, etc)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Does anyone know of a site of past weather where I could search for specific days by inputting parameters? For example, find the dates at BWI where the air temperature fell below 10 degrees and wind chill advisories. Edit: My guess is that there isn't a database that will be as specific as I would like it to be, but one more question. Is there a way to search for past weather alerts (advisories, warnings, etc)? This is prob about the best, I think it'll go back to about 2005 on all adv, tho it doesn't seem to be pulling WSWs: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/ You can get GIS files here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/gis/watchwarn.phtml There may be other ways too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 It feels like our area leads the world in counterfeited high and low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Regarding The SECS/MECS/HECS/BECS debate: SECS: 4-8" MECS: 8-18" HECS: 18-30" OR something historic for our region. As in 10" in mid-April, or 8" on Halloween. BECS: 30"+ That's my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS gives me ~.25 before the switch over. We shall see how the models trend over the weekend. I know ice/CAD is harder to forecast on the models. GFS has been very consistent with this scenario for the last several runs. It has temps for us in the upper 20's for most of the precip. We don't get above freezing until early afternoon and even then we only make to 33-34 before falling back. Euro brings the precip in later and has warmer surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 If you are enjoying the snowy landscape with a few inches on every surface plus the ongoing cold temps then you would have loved Jan. 1977. Just looking at it from a statistics standpoint for snowfall you might think, meh (BWI had around 11 inches that winter). But combine the snows from that month, and there were several, one topping out around 5", with the incredibly subnormal temps and it was a true winter wonderland complete with every lake, river, and Bay frozen like it hadn't been in 50 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 GFS has been very consistent with this scenario for the last several runs. It has temps for us in the upper 20's for most of the precip. We don't get above freezing until early afternoon and even then we only make to 33-34 before falling back. Euro brings the precip in later and has warmer surface temps. i think the para at 6z even had snow on the back end. IT just brought me down a laptop so I'm prepared to work from home Monday if it is icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This is prob about the best, I think it'll go back to about 2005 on all adv, tho it doesn't seem to be pulling WSWs: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/ You can get GIS files here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/gis/watchwarn.phtml There may be other ways too.. Wow, that is awesome. Thanks, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Regarding The SECS/MECS/HECS/BECS debate: SECS: 4-8" MECS: 8-18" HECS: 18-30" OR something historic for our region. As in 10" in mid-April, or 8" on Halloween. BECS: 30"+ That's my take. I'd definitely agree with this call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I am trying to temper my expectations grounds for a ban yoda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 grounds for a ban yoda... Well fine then... I want a foot snowstorm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Well fine then... I want a foot snowstorm now better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 If yoda is tempering expectations then I'm canceling winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 If yoda is tempering expectations then I'm canceling winter Just for next week... after that I will have the GGEM ensembles ready to post every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I dunno why everyone is trying to wishcast a storm here next week while I'm gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I'd definitely agree with this call. I would say a BECS would be 25" plus, something like the Knickbocker storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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