Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,615
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

January Banter Thread


H2O

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I totally agree. I've got snow on the ground, temp of 18 and have seen totally frozen lakes today. Seems pretty good to me. Chasing big events will leave you bummed out most of the time. I'm just happy we have snow.

 

I'm not expecting a MECS or anything like that, but an area-wide warning criteria storm would be nice.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Coming from a place that didn't have a metro, I'm not sure how I am supposed to feel.

I've often thought its overblown but the system is pretty taxed and not getting enough money. Without something changing at some pt it'll be a real problem if not already.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Isn't a region wide warning event the definition of a MECS? 

 

Not from my understanding... that would be a SECS. Even a 4-6" storm qualifies as warning and a few lucky areas got those totals the other day.

 

MECS would be widespread double digit totals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Isn't a region wide warning event the definition of a MECS? 

 

 

The cost of riding is absolutely absurd. I can't understand why a smaller system in a warmer location (generally) costs so much to maintain when NYC has been working with flat fares for as long as it has. 

 

I don't understand how the WMATA is so inept at maintaining a metro system considering the funding they receive and the high fares they charge.  Personnel costs are projected to be $1.3 billion in Metro's latest budget forecast for FY16, of a total expenditure budget forecast of $1.8 billion.  I don't know anything about mass transit budgets, but that seems like an awfully high proportion of your budget to spend on personnel costs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shorthand on medium-long range discussion? Anyone?

Certain poster misunderstands every post and calls for early spring and that's not good posts... Is soon corrected by the original poster but he still doesn't get it. Certain poster prepping winters time of death based on incorrect reading of tonight's 0z model runs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Certain poster misunderstands every post and calls for early spring and that's not good posts... Is soon corrected by the original poster but he still doesn't get it. Certain poster prepping winters time of death based on incorrect reading of tonight's 0z model runs

Looks like we found a new job for you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Certain poster misunderstands every post and calls for early spring and that's not good posts... Is soon corrected by the original poster but he still doesn't get it. Certain poster prepping winters time of death based on incorrect reading of tonight's 0z model runs

Yup. Time for bed. See what the next lollies the models bring in the am.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't ride metro that often, but when I have I've noticed far too many problems. And yes, it is kind of ridiculous how expensive it is. At least DC has street cars up and running. Just watch out if you have your own car :o

Thankfully Arlington gave up on that boondoggle of adding streetcars on Columbia Pike.

DC is still testing their streetcar (after what seems like forever) and still getting into accidents. :o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My bar is different it seems...Keep in mind that my scale has been adjusted for MA (DC) climo...

 

(Just talking snow)

Stat Padder-- .10-2 inches, could be localized or not

SECS--2-4 inches over the majority of the region

MECS--Warning level event that mostly verifies over MA region

HECS--Storm that breaks records (Top 15) in the region, or a storm challenges records along most of the east coast

BECS--Storm that breaks an all time record, or has a 100+ year return time in my location

 

This region does surprisingly well with very big storms... maybe not DCA due to its awful location (though even DC's top 10 is quite respectable when compared to many Midwest cities that have much colder winters), but IAD and BWI have had a good number of 18"+ storms.... all of Baltimore's top 10 storms had 18"+, and IAD has only had fewer because its records only go back 50 years... but it averages one per decade.

 

If you live near Silver Spring at 400'+, then your climo probably has more in common with IAD than DCA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The whole point of that article was that it was a historic 2" drought, not anything close to the norm for DC. So, 2" is nothing significant for this city as a whole.

 

I think you may be forgetting what the "EC" in "SECS" stands for.... For any localized region, I think one would be better off just sticking to terms like "moderate" or "major" or "historic" snowstorm. That definition changes depending on where you are. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2" is a decent snow here I think.. We need them most years to get to anything respectable but it's like an avg low to mod event in the area overall probably.

SECS prob warning criteria at least and as gymengineer notes it should generally have a larger regional scope.

This area is kinda weird when it comes to snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The rough 11-12/12-13 stretch made it seem significant, but its really not. I grew up in Baltimore and have bounced around the MA area. I've seen more 2" snowfalls than I can possibly remember. If the "storm" on Tuesday had come overnight or on the weekend, it wouldn't have been nearly as significant. It was a case of perfect timing to cause chaos on the roads. 

Maybe I moved here at the wrong time (toward the end of the drought), but I feel like my experience is that 2 inches is significant here in the cities. Again, out NW, absolutely not, but inside the beltway I think it is. 

 

As for the EC--that's a good point, there aren't many if we're expanding like that. I used to care about the broader impact and still do to an extent, but after "being around" Matt, f*** everybody else, I care about MBY totals. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I always thought of an SECS as 4-8". MECS as a 6-12" type storm. 9 of BWIs top 10 are >20". #10 is 19.5". 9 of the top 20 have occurred in the most recent 30 years. Only 3 of them are pre-1950.

After 12/09 was officially dropped down to 18.0", the 19.5" February blizzard was bumped up to #9, with 12/09 slipping to #10. 

 

Your definition of MECS also leaves a big jump to a HECS. What about the storms between 12 and 18" ? Was 2/13 from last season a MECS or a HECS? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After 12/09 was officially dropped down to 18.0", the 19.5" February blizzard was bumped up to #9, with 12/09 slipping to #10. 

 

Your definition of MECS also leaves a big jump to a HECS. What about the storms between 12 and 18" ? Was 2/13 from last season a MECS or a HECS? 

Thanks for the correction. Not sure how I missed that. 

 

Good point on the scale. I think 4" is a good low number for SECS. Maybe the SECS is 4-8", MECS is 8-14" and HECS is >14? I'm not sure there's a point in recognizing BECS. HECS is historical for a reason. And for most places around here, anything above 14" is gonna be a top 20 storm. Maybe that's too loose of criteria for an HECS. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2" is a decent snow here I think.. We need them most years to get to anything respectable but it's like an avg low to mod event in the area overall probably.

SECS prob warning criteria at least and as gymengineer notes it should generally have a larger regional scope.

This area is kinda weird when it comes to snow.

The lines are definitely blurred however for any area that averages at least 15 inches per year I think a storm has to yield a minimum of 4 inches to be considered significant. I feel like a 2-4 event is a low end or borderline moderate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for the correction. Not sure how I missed that. 

 

Good point on the scale. I think 4" is a good low number for SECS. Maybe the SECS is 4-8", MECS is 8-14" and HECS is >14? I'm not sure there's a point in recognizing BECS. HECS is historical for a reason. And for most places around here, anything above 14" is gonna be a top 20 storm. Maybe that's too loose of criteria for an HECS. 

 

I kinda like the numbers you came up with for each category. A HECS in my opinion is harder to define than the other two. I have always used 4-8 to define a SECS. As far as a MECS goes there needs to be a widespread storm average in the region of  8-12 inches. So for instance if you took the storm totals from 20 sites over a 50 mile radius and came up with an average of say 10.5 that would meet the MECS definition. I'm sure others would view it differently because there is so much room open for interpretation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I kinda like the numbers you came up with for each category. A HECS in my opinion is harder to define than the other two. I have always used 4-8 to define a SECS. As far as a MECS goes there needs to be a widespread storm average in the region of  8-12 inches. So for instance if you took the storm totals from 20 sites over a 50 mile radius and came up with an average of say 10.5 that would meet the MECS definition. I'm sure others would view it differently because there is so much room open for interpretation.

DT used to have a clear delineation of the SECS, MECS, etc... on his website many years ago. I don't know if he established his own criteria or if he was drawing from some other source. Perhaps he could chime in a some point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...