das Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's always awesome when decisions about how to use your leave are made for you. And not every fed employee can or should telework. Your last few posts have been some first-class crabbing. The forecasters did not get this wrong. They nearly universally said 1-3" of cold snow that will stick on all surfaces right at the rush and that's what happened. They even said there may be a narrow area of higher totals so that those in the risk management, decision sciences and communications fields could make good decisions. It is appropriate that the two school districts that chose to stay open, despite what all their peers in the region chose to do, are receiving all the ire and it is bush-league of them to try to deflect to the forecasters or DOTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 MW obs are always much colder than surrounding stations. I think it needs calibration or the #s are fudged This made me LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Your last few posts have been some first-class crabbing. The forecasters did not get this wrong. They nearly universally said 1-3" of cold snow that will stick on all surfaces right at the rush and that's what happened. They even said there may be a narrow area of higher totals so that those in the risk management, decision sciences and communications fields could make good decisions. It is appropriate that the two school districts that chose to stay open, despite what all their peers in the region chose to do, are receiving all the ire and it is bush-league of them to try to deflect to the forecasters or DOTs. Well, that's kinda not what happened given I had 5". If the criteria for a successful forecast is now "it's gonna snow" we can shut the board down. I don't disagree with you that it is bush-league for schools and governments to deflect to forecasters. DOTs are a bit more understandable, given that they utterly failed here. I do think it is questionable that some of the loudest voices criticizing the schools are forecasters whose forecasts busted. Might be a better course of action to lay low a bit and have everyone work together to reduce impacts for the next storm(s) (perhaps coming in the next 10-14 days) rather than standing in a circle pointing fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What part of "narrow area with higher totals" are you having trouble with? Congrats on being in that higher area. The school admins had ample tools to make the simple "2-hour delay" call and then monitor. That they did not do so was negligence on their part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well, that's kinda not what happened given I had 5". If the criteria for a successful forecast is now "it's gonna snow" we can shut the board down. I Man...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 What part of "narrow area with higher totals" are you having trouble with? Congrats on being in that higher area. The school admins had ample tools to make the simple "2-hour delay" call and then monitor. That they did not do so was negligence on their part. When "narrow areas" become the size of multiple counties, sure. I agree with you that a 2 hour delay should have happened. I do not necessarily agree that it would have solved anything or changed the outcome. Buses still would have had to hit the roads around 8 AM and who knows if definitive decisions to close would have been possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The fact that there were higher totals than 1-3" is irrelevant in this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 With temps in the low 20s, does it really matter if it snows 2 inches or 4, or 5? The roads are going to be be covered and icy. Period. Everyone should have understood that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 When "narrow areas" become the size of multiple counties, sure. I agree with you that a 2 hour delay should have happened. I do not necessarily agree that it would have solved anything or changed the outcome. Buses still would have had to hit the roads around 8 AM and who knows if definitive decisions to close would have been possible I've looked through all the totals, and there are no entire counties reporting >3 inches of snow. Parts of multiple counties, yes, but no whole county. Parts of multiple counties reported >3", so the "narrow areas" is indeed accurate, even if it extends and includes multiple counties. http://www.myfoxdc.com/story/27783322/snow-totals-from-the-tuesday-january-06-2015-snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 With temps in the low 20s, does it really matter if it snows 2 inches or 4, or 5? The roads are going to be be covered and icy. Period. Everyone should have understood that. Then where were the plows? Where was the rock salt? Why were the roads brine-treated, when a 9th-grade chemistry student could have told you that was going to be close to useless at those temps? This is why I'm mystified that everyone is blameless other than the school administrators that have to make decisions for 500 square mile counties with 1,800 feet of elevation variance. They screwed up. Point being, everyone screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 looks like cold temps has the NAM stuck at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The fact that there were higher totals than 1-3" is irrelevant in this discussion. We have a winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Early money on DC shutdown Monday? For what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Excited to have known a time on this earth before people used the expression "cray cray". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Excited to have known a time on this earth before people used the expression "cray cray". Excited to have lived in a time before this expression was needed, aka civility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ice storm talk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ice storm talk lol GGEM was right before on the last ice storm we had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ice storm talk lol We should move it to the new subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 We should move it to the new subforum yeah, we'll call it sublikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GGEM was right before on the last ice storm we had It could happen. But we do this hand wringing about ice at least once a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 They should have done what they do here. Stop the bus, put the chains on. Then, with students already at school, they should have kept them there as conditions most certainly were going to improve into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Then where were the plows? Where was the rock salt? Why were the roads brine-treated, when a 9th-grade chemistry student could have told you that was going to be close to useless at those temps? This is why I'm mystified that everyone is blameless other than the school administrators that have to make decisions for 500 square mile counties with 1,800 feet of elevation variance. They screwed up. Point being, everyone screwed up. Agree completely there. I don't agree that forecasters screwed up. Temps were nailed as was the timing of the precip, and for the most part so too were the accumulations. That same 9th grade student analogy can also be applied to the administrators. They have a history of closing schools for the most mundane conditions and then some don't even delay for a rush-hour snow storm w/ temps in the low 20s. Don't know about the plows, but rock salt is just as useless at those temps as was the brine. I don't live in those areas, but I surmise that plows were MIA because the arteries were clogged with traffic and wrecks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Congrats on the great winter guys, this one will go down in the books. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015010812&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=290.9091 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Congrats on the great winter guys, this one will go down in the books. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015010812&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=290.9091 Why didn't you use this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Congrats on the great winter guys, this one will go down in the books. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015010812&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=290.9091 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Congrats on the great winter guys, this one will go down in the books. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015010812&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=290.9091 you try so hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 you try so hard Cherrypicked from the finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It could happen. But we do this hand wringing about ice at least once a winter. Who's been hand wringing? Most people are excited about the chance, although it's hard to come by. The only "hand wringing" I see is by homeowners and people who absolutely have to drive, which is legit. When I owned a home and had to drive for a living or had to go to work no matter what, I didn't want ice (of course you called it hand wringing back then too ) But those people, I believe are genuinely spooked about it. That's not to say ice is an easy thing around here...it's not...but some people do have legit concerns when it does appear likely. Now that I don't own, live in a city where mostly power is buried and don't have to drive in it...as the great and ultra sensitive crybaby LC would say, I hope we get an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I will say this though....the implementation of the new GFS might be a debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Who's been hand wringing? Most people are excited about the chance, although it's hard to come by. The only "hand wringing" I see is by homeowners and people who absolutely have to drive, which is legit. When I owned a home and had to drive for a living or had to go to work no matter what, I didn't want ice (of course you called it hand wringing back then too ) But those people, I believe are genuinely spooked about it. That's not to say ice is an easy thing around here...it's not...but some people do have legit concerns when it does appear likely. Now that I don't own, live in a city where mostly power is buried and don't have to drive in it...as the great and ultra sensitive crybaby LC would say, I hope we get an inch of ice. I hope your metro escalator ices up and breaks down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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