snowfan Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 OPM gave folks yesterday the opp to do what they wanted.....take leave, telework or come into the office. They aren't really "free" for a lot of people if OPM doesn't do the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 OPM gave folks yesterday the opp to do what they wanted.....take leave, telework or come into the office. It's always awesome when decisions about how to use your leave are made for you. And not every fed employee can or should telework. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 They aren't really "free" for a lot of people if OPM doesn't do the same thing. You think the school districts base their decisions on OPM's plan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 You think the school districts base their decisions on OPM's plan? I don't think I said that, but I think it should be one of many factors considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Huh??? VDOT (and the contractors) were likely out in force from midnight on sitting on the Interstate ramps waiting for the first flakes. That is how it works in the western district anyway. Heck, we only have flurries/snow showers with less than 1 for today and they are out there. No, it is 100% on schools, if snow is called for in early am WHEN YOU ARE TRANSPORTING THE KIDS you take the two hour delay to assess, period.Pretty sure plows etc were largely awol yesterday it was widely reported. For a world class region that gets snow every yr the clearing of snow is pretty abysmal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I don't think I said that, but I think it should be one of many factors considered. Ok, and OPM had a liberal leave policy. I don't think you have a leg to stand on if you think the forecast didn't at least justify a 2hr delay for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pretty sure plows etc were largely awol yesterday it was widely reported. For a world class region that gets snow every yr the clearing of snow is pretty abysmal. Interesting. You'd think VDOT would be out in full force for first real threat of season up that way. Like I said earlier, they out here, for flurries/showers less than an inch, sitting on the ramps or just driving around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Just put weather offices in charge of closings or delays. That will fix everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pretty sure plows etc were largely awol yesterday it was widely reported. For a world class region that gets snow every yr the clearing of snow is pretty abysmal. I can't speak for NOVA or DC conditions, but I was surprised how rough the main roads (like 95) were yesterday in MD. I can think of 2 meteorological reasons for this though. First, I don't think the pre-treating was particularly helpful with temps in the low 20s. Second, with 0.5-1"/hr rates from about 630-830 am, even plowed roads were covered back up soon. Not making excuses for the DOTs, but I think those were factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Pretty sure plows etc were largely awol yesterday it was widely reported. For a world class region that gets snow every yr the clearing of snow is pretty abysmal.totallyTotally agree with this . Lived here a long time. Unfortunately decisions are based on $$$, not safety . People in charge of these decisions would be wise to check this forum for their weather info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Still too much buck-passing, in my opinion. It's a little baffling how hard Bernstein, CWG, et al are coming at the school systems when (as Jason sheepishly admits) they were the first in line to criticize them for the opposite scenario last winter. Do they not think that had at least some impact on yesterday's decision? And sorry, the forecast was blown in Fairfax/Loudoun. We can put all the qualifiers on forecasts that we like, but when 1-2" is forecast to fall sometime over the course of the morning until 12-1 PM, and then 5 inches fall with 3-3.5" on the ground by 7 AM, that's a bust-a-roo, sorry. And you can't ignore the effect that has on all elements of this process. Would VDOT have had plows out far earlier had [what actually happened] been forecast, or even mentioned? I'd think so. Instead, I saw multiple mets (one rhymes with Bave Dolleris) literally telling people not to worry because it's "just a clipper." Mets (and us on this board) tend to get stuck in bubbles and forget that the general public neither knows nor cares about the intricacies of models, forecasts, etc. You cannot really expect that the public or frankly even school administrators are going to be sitting around parsing every NWS scientific forecaster discussion. The best "forecast" for yesterday would have been to say "Clippers are somewhat unpredictable. We think ____ inches will fall, but it's entirely likely that impacts could be less or more in a given area. Authorities should prepare accordingly." instead of "Meh, 1-2 inches, big whoop we're a snow town and this shouldn't bother us." And you can bet the next time a stray mangled flurry falls all of these systems will close. Let's hope the peanut gallery doesn't chime in on that decision too, or you'll see yesterday again. Several points: 1. I'm not familiar with the details concerning criticism for last year's event. Was the criticism for a delayed opening? Was the criticism for closure as opposed to a delayed opening? Was the criticism for a closure a day after an event? Hence, I can't really comment one way or another on the specific merits of that criticism. I will suggest, in general, that one should be careful in one's public communications, as such communications can have an impact on shaping behavior at the time of the communication and afterward. 2. If I were assessing the risk of the event, I'd consider, among the following factors: the event was the first accumulating snowfall for portions of the greater Washington area (empirical evidence shows that the first such event has a statistically significant higher rate of accidents), timing of the event (rush hour), possibility of slick roads (cold temperatures would make for a slower impact from treating the roads), local terrain (areas with a lot of hills are more hazardous than relatively flat areas), and forecast accumulations. Given what was forecast (not a "dusting" as one spokesperson inaccurately claimed but not a big one), I think a delayed opening would have made eminent sense. A delayed opening would have bought time to avoid a hazardous rush hour and to see if the storm was behaving as forecast. Additional decisions could then be made as needed based on a combination of road conditions, accident reports, and the weather conditions. IMO, when one is dealing with children, risk tolerance should be lower than if one is dealing with adults who have the ability to make informed decisions on their own. 3. A systematic approach to handling such situations should be developed and implemented. Specific criteria should be included. Real impacts for a sufficient sample of storms should inform the development of such a framework. This kind of decision making should not be largely or wholly an excercise in reaction. A proactive framework should be in place. That way decision making would be based on effective practices and concrete data with less latitude for subjectivity. Clearly, some school districts performed better than others in handling the situation. All could learn from what they did and why. Those that took a different approach should reach out to their peers. After each event, the relevant decision makers should fully cover the event, their actions, what went right, what didn't, and implement any opportunities or insights that could lead to improved performance in future events. In short, most of the planning for such contingent events as bad weather, can and should be done far in advance. A well-defined structured approach should be in place, which helps reduce the risk of error, as one is then dealing with a much smaller area of latitude. 4. While one probably can't reasonably expect all of the general public to seek out relevant information, know where to find it, etc., the decision makers in schools, business, and government responsible for dealing with weather impacts most definitely should be up to date on the latest information. I can't speak for TV forecasters, as I no longer live in the Washington area (as I did in the '90s), but the NWS information was sufficient to warrant delayed openings and such delayed openings could have been made the evening prior to the event with appropriate text messages and other alerts sent to parents', teachers', employees, and students' myriad devices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 They aren't really "free" for a lot of people if OPM doesn't do the same thing. The OPM almost never delays for a forecast of 1-2" of snow. The school systems except for DC and maybe Alexandria almost always do delay for 1-2". There's no mystery to this. Parents have experienced that exact scenario time and time again. There's just no justifying the deviance from a straight forward 2-hr delay scenario given the original forecast, which is all everyone's trying to tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Several points: 1. I'm not familiar with the details concerning criticism for last year's event. Was the criticism for a delayed opening? Was the criticism for closure as opposed to a delayed opening? Was the criticism for a closure a day after an event? Hence, I can't really comment one way or another on the specific merits of that criticism. I will suggest, in general, that one should be careful in one's public communications, as such communications can have an impact on shaping behavior at the time of the communication and afterward. Not that you need to know this, but just in case you were curious: The criticism was centered on Fairfax County, the largest school system in the area, for two decisions. In terms of snow, there was criticism for a closure the full day after (like 30 hours after snow had stopped falling) for a 4-6" storm. Most of the other comparable counties had a 2-hr delay or even opened on time. There were also complaints about Fairfax County closing for a cold day (no snow) where lows were in the -2 to low single digits range. Comparable counties opened on time. There were three other "minor" events (1 glaze of ice, 2 snows of 0.5-1.5" overnight) that resulted in widespread 2-hr delays. Those did not register many complaints at all. There was one event (2/26/14) where schools opened on time because snow started later than forecast, but cars, buses were stuck on the road during the commute to school as snow rapidly developed right around 6:30 am. The lack of a 2-hr delay was criticized in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 For what it's worth, a "coating to an inch" was the CWG forecast for roughly half of Fairfax and PW counties. So while "a dusting" was technically not the forecast, it also wasn't an outright "lie" for those counties. I've repeatedly tried to link the image here but it won't let me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The rest of FFX county was in the 1-2 w up to 3 in spots zone. Since VA has county based districts, like Maryland, conditions across the entire county must be taken into account. That includes the best and worst conditions. For what it's worth, a "coating to an inch" was the CWG forecast for roughly half of Fairfax and PW counties. So while "a dusting" was technically not the forecast, it also wasn't an outright "lie" for those counties. I've repeatedly tried to link the image here but it won't let me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 AA Co has considered going the Baltimore Co route by splitting the district into different zones for weather purposes. The weather north of 50 can sometimes be worse than south of 50. They say that the cost of doing so is too great. I'm not sure if other counties have considered this. PA has a better system since the districts are split up via the townships, so there are numerous school districts in each county and each district gets to make their own call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I can't speak for NOVA or DC conditions, but I was surprised how rough the main roads (like 95) were yesterday in MD. I can think of 2 meteorological reasons for this though. First, I don't think the pre-treating was particularly helpful with temps in the low 20s. Second, with 0.5-1"/hr rates from about 630-830 am, even plowed roads were covered back up soon. Not making excuses for the DOTs, but I think those were factors. I can speak for my road, which is a snow emergency route, meaning its plowed multiple times an hour during any snow event. Yesterday, it was crap, and the plows were out on it. I don't think the pre-treating helped at all, and because it was such a powdery snow, it wasn't really able to be cleared off the road by plows. Once cars drove over it, it was rock hard ice that the plows couldn't do much with. A lot of things going against crews yesterday. Regardless, the issue with not delaying schools is on the school, not forecasters/nws/the news. A 2-hour delay should be an easy call to make when even an inch of snow is in the forecast. Everyone knows traffic comes to a standstill, people can't drive in the snow, etc. Just give it a couple hours, and try again. And if it still sucks (which in yesterdays case, it did) then close all together and be done with it. Really horrible handling by the couple counties in VA, AA county and Baltimore City yesterday. Has anyone heard the status of the kids who were in the accident yesterday in Pasadena? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think this stuff will happen forever at times. Mets like to circle jerk about it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think this stuff will happen forever at times. Mets like to circle jerk about it though. funny you say that, JB2 was honking on twitter yesterday morning how more school districts need to call him and ask his opinion on whether they should delay/open/close or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 was my one post in the LR thread deleted? because i said "no ice please?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 funny you say that, JB2 was honking on twitter yesterday morning how more school districts need to call him and ask his opinion on whether they should delay/open/close or not. weather is everything! just so many moving pieces and random folks in the chain. not sure how you can remove the potential for issues entirely. perhaps the gap can be closed a bit but some have unrealistic expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Has anyone heard the status of the kids who were in the accident yesterday in Pasadena? Initially the PIO said they were in Critical and Serious condition but by afternoon they were released from the hospital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Initially the PIO said they were in Critical and Serious condition but by afternoon they were released from the hospital. thats good. thankfully it wasn't as serious it sounded originally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 2-4" for much of DC metro...But once you get a taste of the choco from the harz mountains of Germany, you can't go back to black tar. You guys might be able to sneak something in when we flip to a Nino pattern in 7-10 days...That will be a window of opportunity for the Carolinas. Lol...now we want hazelnut and brandy filling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I think a lot of people underestimated how quickly moderate snow in mid-20s temps can accumulate. it was a legitimate snowstorm by the 270 split...4" was about average for the area...but the temps were the icing on the cake. it was a snow globe out there for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I can speak for my road, which is a snow emergency route, meaning its plowed multiple times an hour during any snow event. Yesterday, it was crap, and the plows were out on it. I don't think the pre-treating helped at all, and because it was such a powdery snow, it wasn't really able to be cleared off the road by plows. Once cars drove over it, it was rock hard ice that the plows couldn't do much with. A lot of things going against crews yesterday. Regardless, the issue with not delaying schools is on the school, not forecasters/nws/the news. A 2-hour delay should be an easy call to make when even an inch of snow is in the forecast. Everyone knows traffic comes to a standstill, people can't drive in the snow, etc. Just give it a couple hours, and try again. And if it still sucks (which in yesterdays case, it did) then close all together and be done with it. Really horrible handling by the couple counties in VA, AA county and Baltimore City yesterday. Has anyone heard the status of the kids who were in the accident yesterday in Pasadena? Agree - there are more factors that play into "making the call" than just accumulation. Temperatures (it was too cold for the normal salt/brine to do much, if it did anything its effective rate was significantly reduced), timing, rate of snow (some rates @ 1"/hr+ were reported) and the combination of all these and other factors. It seems the schools are looking for some silver bullet from which to make the call, and there isn't one. However, a prudent low-risk approach in this situation is to issue a 2-hr delay, which buys them two more hours to see how things go. If they'd done that yesterday, I'd hope it would have provided the additional insight needed to close. The above said, we hear there is a process where the school districts have a group that gets together to make the decision. This was mentioned in the "we" part of the follow-up emails sent to the masses by FCPS during and after the event. I don't know what their process is, never been a part of it. However, growing up in Ohio our school district superintendent lived right behind us (and my mom or dad were on the school-board for 40+ years), so we all knew what the process was, as did everyone else in the district. And that process was that HE made the call and it was HIM who got out at 5 am and drove around the streets in the residential areas and out in the country (we were a rural district with several small towns/villages), and it was HIM to called the local NWS office at Dayton Airport to get an update on the weather, and when it all boiled down to the decision, it was HIS. In taking this approach, our superintendent got access to the applicable information first hand. It was not something relayed through several sources with perhaps a change in context introduced along the relay of information. In doing so, he usually got it right, but likewise took responsibility while exercising his authority. There was not much of this "we" stuff where people try to politically spread the wrath by attributing the decision to a group, vice standing up and taking responsibility. While times may be different these days, and some form of a group consensus may provide the benefit of offering differing opinions, the end decision should boil down to the superintendent. That's one of the things the position is paid for, and should be held accountable for. Have not seen one hint of a message from the superintendent from any of the districts involved where they've taken responsibility. They should stand up, take it, learn from it, and then let's move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Not that you need to know this, but just in case you were curious: The criticism was centered on Fairfax County, the largest school system in the area, for two decisions. In terms of snow, there was criticism for a closure the full day after (like 30 hours after snow had stopped falling) for a 4-6" storm. Most of the other comparable counties had a 2-hr delay or even opened on time. There were also complaints about Fairfax County closing for a cold day (no snow) where lows were in the -2 to low single digits range. Comparable counties opened on time. There were three other "minor" events (1 glaze of ice, 2 snows of 0.5-1.5" overnight) that resulted in widespread 2-hr delays. Those did not register many complaints at all. There was one event (2/26/14) where schools opened on time because snow started later than forecast, but cars, buses were stuck on the road during the commute to school as snow rapidly developed right around 6:30 am. The lack of a 2-hr delay was criticized in that case. Thanks for this information. I was curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Growing up in Fairfax county, there is not a single time ever, that snow was accumulating on streets at 5am, and we didn't have a 2-hour delay or closure...not once... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Growing up in Fairfax county, there is not a single time ever, that snow was accumulating on streets at 5am, and we didn't have a 2-hour delay or closure...not once... gone are the days, I guess, where the older generation was tougher than the younger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Growing up in Fairfax county, there is not a single time ever, that snow was accumulating on streets at 5am, and we didn't have a 2-hour delay or closure...not once... and if memory serves, if snow started during the school day we generally got out early once snow started sticking to the roads. Exception being Veterans Day but that one caught everyone off guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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